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Thread: The Brexit Disaster

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    The Brexit Disaster

    Three years ago, Britain's population voted, by the slimmest of margins, to leave the European Union via vague process known as "Brexit". The idea was championed by far right (by which I mean anti-immigrant / anti-feminist right) politicians such as Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson and backed by similar far right activists worldwide, including, of course, Donald Trump and his supporters here in the U.S. Less than three years later, the new Conservative Prime Minister selected to head up this process, Theresa May, has already resigned in disgrace. Her likely replacement, Boris Johnson, who championed the original referendum, advocates for what is known as a "hard Brexit", which means a scenario wherein Britain makes no departing deal at all with the European Union and instead chaotically crashes out of the EU and has to manually negotiate new trade agreements with every country individually. This appears to be what will most likely actually occur, appropriately beginning on Halloween.

    It doesn't take a super-genius to figure out that economic disaster will result (indeed the experts project that "under a ‘no deal’ scenario...living costs for low-income households are estimated to increase by £480 per year and that food prices would rise by 8%" while "real wages [would] fall"), but one needn't wait to see an impact from Brexit, as businesses have spent the entire three-year period since the vote leaving Britain in slow-motion in order to shield themselves from the anticipated chaos, resulting in three years of economic stagnation, which themselves follow two recessions in the last decade under the governance of Conservatives. The first of these recessions was, of course, caused by our financial elite here in the U.S. and known as the Great Recession. The second, however, was the product of budgetary austerity measures that the subsequently-elected government of David Cameron introduced in response. In other words, the tea party movement's dreams for America came true in the UK and that was the result.

    Anyway, the end consequence of all this has been that, despite an unemployment rate of just 3.8%, the UK nonetheless currently enjoys a poverty rate of 20% (which, for perspective, is worse than our's ever reached even in the depths of the Great Recession here in the U.S.), with wealth distribution and social mobility compared to that of a Victorian workhouse by the UN. These are the economic conditions under which the UK will BEGIN its departure from the European Union! Imagine by the completion of the project!!

    Brexiteers have had two motivations in connection to the departure policy: a desire for reduced immigration and a desire for foreign trade policies more favorable to the British (...okay, English) workers. Setting aside the moral issue I take with the former goal to focus on the latter, the stupidity of Brexit is that it will have the exact opposite real-world impact, and we have already seen as much quite clearly in the harsh terms that both the Trump Administration here in the U.S. and also Xi Jinping's government in China have demanded upon the UK vis-a-vis any new, post-Brexit trading deal that may be reached (example). What the tougher stances of the U.S. and China toward the UK in this new atmosphere demonstrate is the reality that leaving the European Union means that the UK will have MUCH LESS bargaining power in the future, NOT more! The UK will emerge from this process much weaker, not stronger. That is why Brexit, and especially a hard Brexit, has been the policy most favored and advanced by Russian intelligence.
    Last edited by IMPress Polly; 05-25-2019 at 08:05 AM.

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    Brexit wouldn't have won had the angry issues surrounding it been dealt with instead of being allowed to build up pressure until they erupted. May failed, but someone needs to step up to the plate now and finish this.
    ""A government which robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on the support of Paul" ~George Bernard Shaw

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    The most compelling arguments for a Brexit are not necessarily economic ones. The matter of sovereignty, rule by bureaucracy and the democratic deficit are all much more powerful arguments for the leave campaign. But an economic argument does exist, and on balance it also favours a Brexit.


    The first step in outlining this case is to dispense with the argument that access to the single market trumps all arguments for an exit. The remain campaign contends that not being part of the EU will close the UK off from the single market in some capacity. In reality, the single market is a protectionist customs union that places sizeable tariff barriers around manufactures and agriculture. Together these two sectors only account for about 11 percent of UK GDP. However, there is no EU trade barrier on services which accounts for nearly 80 percent of the UK economy.


    The point in these facts is that as far as the single market is concerned, tariffs on UK goods exports will also damage the rest of the EU’s exports to the UK, and as they export more to us than the other way round, the stakes are high. It would pay both parties to agree on trade arrangements that are not damaging to trade. But with trade in services, where the UK has an enormous comparative advantage, the single market leaves it unaffected.


    There are three key economic arguments for Brexit: a trade argument, an argument concerning regulation and an argument focused on distribution. In the first case, the EU places protective barriers around manufacturing and agriculture, but leaves services largely unaffected. Inside the EU, the prices of manufacturing and agricultural products are higher than world market prices. But tariff barriers are not the whole story, various non-tariff barriers also exist that are difficult to quantify.


    Therefore, the only trade agreement we need to have is with the EU and it is not necessary, as has been suggested, to negotiate multiple trade agreements with all other trade blocs.


    The second economic argument relates to the regulatory zeal of the European Commission that has placed numerous and unnecessary burdens on businesses. The rules and regulations of the single market relate to the 44 percent of exports to the EU. This is less than 15 percent of GDP but all those regulations apply to the remaining 85 percent of the economy. There are four areas of regulation, as identified by Tim Congdon.


    First, the EU has been at the forefront in pronouncing the dangers of global warming and has forced member states to replace low-cost energy sources with high-cost energy sources. The result has been to drive up costs in the steel and heavy industries, with the crisis in the steel industry being one of the outcomes. Second, the ‘social chapter’ and the creation of social legislation have again added to the costs of business which is estimated to cost 1 percent of GDP.


    Third, financial regulation has passed from the UK to EU bodies which threaten the most profitable square mile of London as a financial centre. According to the 2014, UK Government competency review on financial services, ‘Over the last 10years, there has been a roughly 10-fold increase in the volume of EU law on financial services.


    Fourth, there are a huge number of regulations that ban substances and manage processes that is part of the harmonization drive of the single market. Regulation creates allocative distortions that affect output, productivity and employment. The acquis communautaire is 170,000 pages long and that is particularly costly for the SME sector.



    Finally, we come to the distribution argument. The EU provides funds to agriculture, scientific research, universities and many other recipients in the promotion of its wider objectives of a more integrated and socially cohesive Europe. What is important to understand is that it is not the EU but the UK taxpayer that ultimately provides these funds.


    There is no credible way a future government can pre-commit to spending the Brexit-dividend in the way the EU currently does. This is particularly so as much of the EU spending may be inefficient, not allocated to the right areas, for the right reasons.....snip~


    https://www.newsweek.com/brexit-econ...fits-uk-464220


    There goes that theory about the Brits having much less bargaining power.


    Now the EU can play no more games. As now the Brits will have 2 leaders that will tell the EU. Either come with a deal or its the Hard Brexit. The US by itself can help the Brits get around the European bull$#@!.
    History does not long Entrust the care of Freedom, to the Weak or Timid!!!!! Dwight D. Eisenhower ~

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    They never should have put it to a national vote.

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    Quote Originally Posted by IMPress Polly View Post
    Three years ago, Britain's population voted, by the slimmest of margins, to leave the European Union via vague process known as "Brexit". The idea was championed by far right (by which I mean anti-immigrant / anti-feminist right) politicians such as Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson and backed by similar far right activists worldwide, including, of course, Donald Trump and his supporters here in the U.S. Less than three years later, the new Conservative Prime Minister selected to head up this process, Theresa May, has already resigned in disgrace. Her likely replacement, Boris Johnson, who championed the original referendum, advocates for what is known as a "hard Brexit", which means a scenario wherein Britain makes no departing deal at all with the European Union and instead chaotically crashes out of the EU and has to manually negotiate new trade agreements with every country individually. This appears to be what will most likely actually occur, appropriately beginning on Halloween.

    It doesn't take a super-genius to figure out that economic disaster will result (indeed the experts project that "under a ‘no deal’ scenario...living costs for low-income households are estimated to increase by £480 per year and that food prices would rise by 8%" while "real wages [would] fall"), but one needn't wait to see an impact from Brexit, as businesses have spent the entire three-year period since the vote leaving Britain in slow-motion in order to shield themselves from the anticipated chaos, resulting in three years of economic stagnation, which themselves follow two recessions in the last decade under the governance of Conservatives. The first of these recessions was, of course, caused by our financial elite here in the U.S. and known as the Great Recession. The second, however, was the product of budgetary austerity measures that the subsequently-elected government of David Cameron introduced in response. In other words, the tea party movement's dreams for America came true in the UK and that was the result.

    Anyway, the end consequence of all this has been that, despite an unemployment rate of just 3.8%, the UK nonetheless currently enjoys a poverty rate of 20% (which, for perspective, is worse than our's ever reached even in the depths of the Great Recession here in the U.S.), with wealth distribution and social mobility compared to that of a Victorian workhouse by the UN. These are the economic conditions under which the UK will BEGIN its departure from the European Union! Imagine by the completion of the project!!

    Brexiteers have had two motivations in connection to the departure policy: a desire for reduced immigration and a desire for foreign trade policies more favorable to the British (...okay, English) workers. Setting aside the moral issue I take with the former goal to focus on the latter, the stupidity of Brexit is that it will have the exact opposite real-world impact, and we have already seen as much quite clearly in the harsh terms that both the Trump Administration here in the U.S. and also Xi Jinping's government in China have demanded upon the UK vis-a-vis any new, post-Brexit trading deal that may be reached (example). What the tougher stances of the U.S. and China toward the UK in this new atmosphere demonstrate is the reality that leaving the European Union means that the UK will have MUCH LESS bargaining power in the future, NOT more! The UK will emerge from this process much weaker, not stronger. That is why Brexit, and especially a hard Brexit, has been the policy most favored and advanced by Russian intelligence.
    Is this the new left wing standard of democracy? You people seem to chant this mantra a lot. Sooooo, you only win in a democracy if you win big?
    Cutesy Time is OVER

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    Quote Originally Posted by FindersKeepers View Post
    Brexit wouldn't have won had the angry issues surrounding it been dealt with instead of being allowed to build up pressure until they erupted. May failed, but someone needs to step up to the plate now and finish this.
    The 2 they have that will end up replacing May. Both are for Brexit. May wasn't. Both will tell the Euros either come with a deal or take the Hard Brexit. When its all said and done.....the Brits will tell the EU to take a hike with a big FU. They aren't giving up their sovereignty to a bunch of bureaucrats.

    The US by itself will counter the EU. Oh and China wont accept the EU's regulations and will look to trade straight up with the Brits. Neither the US nor China needs the EU.
    History does not long Entrust the care of Freedom, to the Weak or Timid!!!!! Dwight D. Eisenhower ~

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    Why do you say that Brexit is an anti-feminist thing? This is the first time that I've read that.
    Any time you give a man something he doesn't earn, you cheapen him. Our kids earn what they get, and that includes respect. -- Woody Hayes​

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    Quote Originally Posted by Peter1469 View Post
    They never should have put it to a national vote.
    Why? The majority is in favor of Leave. Including 30-40% of their Progressives. Add that with the 70% of the Tories. Done deal.
    History does not long Entrust the care of Freedom, to the Weak or Timid!!!!! Dwight D. Eisenhower ~

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    Quote Originally Posted by DGUtley View Post
    Why do you say that Brexit is an anti-feminist thing? This is the first time that I've read that.
    You are (IMO deliberately, as usual) misreading what I actually said. What I actually said was that the cause of Brexit was championed principally by politicians on the far right; politicians such as Nigel Farage who are known broadly for their hostility to immigration and also to feminism. (For example, Farage describes himself as an "anti-feminist".) I did not directly connect the two things as you imply I did. In point of fact, there are some women who frequently comment on the Feminist Current web site I like to go to who are also Brexit supporters. Feminist champions of Brexit are in the minority there, but they do exist.
    Last edited by IMPress Polly; 05-25-2019 at 09:02 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by countryboy View Post
    Is this the new left wing standard of democracy? You people seem to chant this mantra a lot. Sooooo, you only win in a democracy if you win big?
    Nah it is a new thing.....Demos and Leftists have aspired and desired to be just like the Euros for decades. They just haven't done the Right thing. Which would be to take their asses over there and become one of them.
    History does not long Entrust the care of Freedom, to the Weak or Timid!!!!! Dwight D. Eisenhower ~

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