User Tag List

+ Reply to Thread
Results 1 to 10 of 10

Thread: Can Climate Models Predict Climate Change?

  1. #1
    Points: 665,270, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 88.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialRecommendation Second ClassYour first GroupOverdrive50000 Experience PointsTagger First ClassVeteran
    Awards:
    Discussion Ender
    Chris's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    433316
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Posts
    197,553
    Points
    665,270
    Level
    100
    Thanks Given
    31,984
    Thanked 80,905x in 54,720 Posts
    Mentioned
    2011 Post(s)
    Tagged
    2 Thread(s)

    Can Climate Models Predict Climate Change?

    Judith Curry calls climate change a wicked problem.

    Tradition is not the worship of ashes, but the preservation of fire. ― Gustav Mahler

  2. #2
    Points: 10,517, Level: 24
    Level completed: 59%, Points required for next Level: 333
    Overall activity: 0.1%
    Achievements:
    Veteran10000 Experience Points
    Kacper's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    1027
    Join Date
    Aug 2017
    Posts
    2,404
    Points
    10,517
    Level
    24
    Thanks Given
    495
    Thanked 1,017x in 747 Posts
    Mentioned
    9 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    The short answer is no. Models are designed to explain past data. The more data that has to be fit into that model, the more unreliable the model becomes as far as future predictions. In addition, much of the climate models are based on assumptions and, unfortunately, a lot of the data that is sold off as real is modeled data not actual real world measurements. The climate is clearly changing ,as climate always has, but why it is, where it is going, etc., is still uncertain.

  3. The Following User Says Thank You to Kacper For This Useful Post:

    Chris (02-05-2018)

  4. #3
    Original Ranter
    Points: 859,042, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 90.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialCreated Album picturesOverdrive50000 Experience PointsVeteran
    Awards:
    Posting Award
    Peter1469's Avatar Advisor
    Karma
    496573
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    NOVA
    Posts
    241,693
    Points
    859,042
    Level
    100
    Thanks Given
    153,218
    Thanked 147,583x in 94,415 Posts
    Mentioned
    2552 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Curry is a very professional scientist who explains the problems with the current models very well.
    ΜOΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ


  5. #4
    Points: 665,270, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 88.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialRecommendation Second ClassYour first GroupOverdrive50000 Experience PointsTagger First ClassVeteran
    Awards:
    Discussion Ender
    Chris's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    433316
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Posts
    197,553
    Points
    665,270
    Level
    100
    Thanks Given
    31,984
    Thanked 80,905x in 54,720 Posts
    Mentioned
    2011 Post(s)
    Tagged
    2 Thread(s)
    Quote Originally Posted by Peter1469 View Post
    Curry is a very professional scientist who explains the problems with the current models very well.
    She was the one who first discovered the warming hiatus. She was attacked terribly for it by consensus scientists. She was proven right. Now she tries to explain it.

    First I've heard of Will Happer.
    Tradition is not the worship of ashes, but the preservation of fire. ― Gustav Mahler

  6. The Following User Says Thank You to Chris For This Useful Post:

    Peter1469 (02-05-2018)

  7. #5
    Original Ranter
    Points: 859,042, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 90.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialCreated Album picturesOverdrive50000 Experience PointsVeteran
    Awards:
    Posting Award
    Peter1469's Avatar Advisor
    Karma
    496573
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    NOVA
    Posts
    241,693
    Points
    859,042
    Level
    100
    Thanks Given
    153,218
    Thanked 147,583x in 94,415 Posts
    Mentioned
    2552 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Physicists tend to look down on climate scientists.
    ΜOΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ


  8. #6
    Points: 92,612, Level: 74
    Level completed: 15%, Points required for next Level: 2,138
    Overall activity: 3.0%
    Achievements:
    Social50000 Experience PointsVeteran
    Common Sense's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    931196
    Join Date
    Apr 2014
    Posts
    41,841
    Points
    92,612
    Level
    74
    Thanks Given
    14,236
    Thanked 16,117x in 11,350 Posts
    Mentioned
    544 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Quote Originally Posted by Peter1469 View Post
    Physicists tend to look down on climate scientists.
    Where do you get that fiction from?

  9. #7
    Original Ranter
    Points: 859,042, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 90.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialCreated Album picturesOverdrive50000 Experience PointsVeteran
    Awards:
    Posting Award
    Peter1469's Avatar Advisor
    Karma
    496573
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    NOVA
    Posts
    241,693
    Points
    859,042
    Level
    100
    Thanks Given
    153,218
    Thanked 147,583x in 94,415 Posts
    Mentioned
    2552 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Quote Originally Posted by Common Sense View Post
    Where do you get that fiction from?
    From physicists. Did you watch the video? The guy said what climate scientists do is not science.

    I have heard that is other sources written by physicists and astrophysicists. Computer models are more of a social science thing. Not a hard science thing.
    ΜOΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ


  10. #8
    Points: 7,954, Level: 21
    Level completed: 30%, Points required for next Level: 496
    Overall activity: 0.1%
    Achievements:
    Veteran5000 Experience Points
    Centinel's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    230
    Join Date
    Apr 2015
    Location
    In the Holler
    Posts
    535
    Points
    7,954
    Level
    21
    Thanks Given
    256
    Thanked 220x in 164 Posts
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Can computer models predict the winner of the Superbowl?

  11. #9
    Points: 432,124, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 100.0%
    Achievements:
    50000 Experience PointsVeteranOverdriveSocial
    Awards:
    Frequent Poster
    Tahuyaman's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    307972
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    Bremerton, Washington
    Posts
    183,445
    Points
    432,124
    Level
    100
    Thanks Given
    20,178
    Thanked 76,987x in 55,610 Posts
    Mentioned
    700 Post(s)
    Tagged
    1 Thread(s)
    Quote Originally Posted by Chris View Post
    Can Climate Models Predict Climate Change?

    No. Why? Garbage in, garbage out.

  12. #10
    Points: 432,124, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 100.0%
    Achievements:
    50000 Experience PointsVeteranOverdriveSocial
    Awards:
    Frequent Poster
    Tahuyaman's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    307972
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    Bremerton, Washington
    Posts
    183,445
    Points
    432,124
    Level
    100
    Thanks Given
    20,178
    Thanked 76,987x in 55,610 Posts
    Mentioned
    700 Post(s)
    Tagged
    1 Thread(s)
    Quote Originally Posted by Peter1469 View Post
    Physicists tend to look down on climate scientists.
    Quote Originally Posted by Common Sense View Post
    Where do you get that fiction from?
    Why would you dispute that?

+ Reply to Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts