China's navy is not a threat

[Conley]

Did any officers get relieved over that?

I don't know and am not sure how I could find that out...honestly you would know better than I. I remember when it was first reported in the media and it was certainly cause for concern. Having the event formally addressed three years later didn't exactly make me feel better but I suspect that overstating China's military capabilities benefits all involved on both sides.

[Peter1469]

I knew a guy who would certainly know- he was the XO on the Enterprise not long ago. But he divorced his wife and I lost contact with him.

If a Chinese sub got that close to a US Carrier Group, I imagine that several people were not doing their jobs- things like that end careers in the Navy.

[Conley]

Thanks Peter, that is definitely comforting to read.

[Mister D]

Yes, actually. That is VERY comforting.

[Peter1469]

That avatar suits you.

[Conley]

That avatar suits you.

It does indeed!

[Mister D]

That is a great avatar. I have to thank Conley, actually.

[Peter1469]

It is hilarious.

[RollingWave]

How quite or nosiy a sub is and how easy or hard it is to detect them is a very complex issue, suffice to say that sonar doesn't simply blink and will see a clear dot on their screen for sure. there's a lot of complex problem involved, espeically if they're not out in he middle of the deep open sea.

I've served on a (albeit mostly a vietnam era one) US warship here in Taiwan and participated in a few sub hunting drills, suffice to say that even catching really old outdated subs are not far from a sure thing if they're intent is simply to hide . of course in war times and if the subs were attempting to attack you that would make it more difficult for the Subs to remain undetected. in short, the subs may be able to make one hit, but that's why ships usually move in huge groups (espeically carriers), and if they show up and make that hit they'll have a really really hard time getting away. and unlike ships you really can't move subs in large groups.


As for the Chinese navy, yeah, their not going to challenge the US in the open sea anytime soon (like at least half a century), but they have enough capacity to at least give the US navy some threat in the close sea at least (mostly through missiles and to lesser extend subs.). or at least seriously threaten maritime trade.

China would actually have a pretty difficult time taking Taiwan under the current circumstances, and their base setup in the SE coast reflect that, it's more defensive than anything else. their ability to project power onto Taiwan on a moment's notice is very very limited (aka do it before the USA can react) . and obviously if they want to really put enough pieces on the table to seriously attack, then the US would have long have made the decision to either showdown or backdown (and it's rather unlikely to be the later). If there's a country that it really CAN invade and said country probably would have a hard time standing much of a chance right now it's Mongolia, but that's a different can of worms.

As long as the USA doesn't officially (or secretly agree to) politically give up on Taiwan, the odds of China invading it is about the same as it's willingness to us nukes to do it.

[Peter1469]

Welcome RollingWave. Good comments.