Over the course of the last couple months or so, I've made two predictions concerning the outcome of the election on November 6th:
First prediction (mid-September)
Second prediction (end of September)
Those were based on evidence from those respective points in the campaign. I wasn't yet factoring in things like Romney's impressive first debate performance and obviously not the impact of Hurricane Sandy upon this whole process (much of which still remains to be seen). However, at this late stage of the race, I feel confident enough to offer what I will tentatively call a final prediction. I may do some minor revisions on Monday based on how the weekend goes, but I'm confident enough now to forecast the basic outcome and the vast majority of outcomes overall. This time I will call every state, though, as I just mentioned, I may ultimately change one or two on Monday...we'll see.
(Note: I've been doing these predictions regularly since the 2006 election cycle. Thus far I have ultimately been correct in more than 98% of said predictions. It's a certain boasting point that I have.)
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:
Definite Obama states:
1. Maine
2. Rhode Island
3. Vermont
4. Massachusetts
5. Connecticut
6. New York
7. New Jersey
8. Delaware
9. Pennsylvania
10. Maryland
11. Ohio
12. Michigan
13. Illinois
14. Minnesota
15. New Mexico
16. Nevada
17. Washington
18. Oregon
19. California
20. Hawaii
Likely Obama states:
21. New Hampshire
22. Wisconsin
23. Iowa
Definite Romney states:
1. Virginia
2. North Carolina
3. South Carolina
4. Florida
5. West Virgina
6. Kentucky
7. Tennessee
8. Georgia
9. Indiana
10. Alabama
11. Mississippi
12. Missouri
13. Arkansas
14. Louisiana
15. North Dakota
16. South Dakota
17. Nebraska
18. Kansas
19. Oklahoma
20. Texas
21. Montana
22. Wyoming
23. Utah
24. Arizona
25. Idaho
26. Alaska
Likely Romney states:
27. Colorado
According to my forecast above, I predict the following outcome in electoral votes:
Obama: 281 <-- Winner. (I'm back up to 85% certain on this.)
Romney: 257
THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
Current Situation:
Republicans: 240
Democrats: 190
Vacant Seats: 5
My Prediction: Democrats experience a net gain of 5 seats.
FINAL BALANCE:
237 Republicans <-- Winners. (I'm 100% confident in this basic outcome.)
198 Democrats.
Republicans will retain control of the House, but with a slightly diminished majority. Basically the status quo will continue.
THE SENATE:
Current Scenario:
51 Democrats
47 Republicans
2 Independents who caucus with Democrats
33 seats are up for election. Of those 33 seats, 21 are held by Democrats, 10 by Republicans, and 2 by independents who caucus with Democrats. Republicans thus have a mathematical advantage.
EFFECTIVELY: 53 Democrats, 47 Republicans
My Prediction:
Stays in the Democratic Camp:
1. Rhode Island
2. Vermont
3. Connecticut
4. New York
5. New Jersey
6. Delaware
7. Pennsylvania
8. Maryland
9. Virginia
10. Florida
11. West Virginia
12. Ohio
13. Michigan
14. Wisconsin
15. Minnesota
16. Missouri
17. New Mexico
18. Washington
19. California
20. Hawaii
Switches from Republican to Democratic Camp:
21. Massachusetts
22. Maine
23. Indiana
Stays Republican:
1. Tennessee
2. Mississippi
3. Texas
4. Wyoming
5. Utah
6. Arizona
7. Nevada
Switches from Democratic to Republican:
8. North Dakota
9. Nebraska
10. Montana
Prediction of the End Result:
Democrats: 51 <-- Winners. (I am 100% confident in that basic outcome.)
Republicans: 47
Independents: 2 (both Democratic-leaning)
EFFECTIVELY: 53 Democrats, 47 Republicans, i.e. the status quo exactly in terms of totals. Nothing will essentially change, in other words.
STATE GOVERNORSHIPS
Current balance of state governorships:
29 Republicans
20 Democrats
11 states will have gubernatorial elections concurrent with the November 6th general elections this year, out of which 8 seats are presently held by Democrats and 3 by Republicans, giving Republicans a huge mathematical advantage.
My Prediction:
Stays Democratic
1. Vermont
2. Delaware
3. West Virginia
4. Missouri
5. Washington
Stays Republican
1. Indiana
2. North Dakota
3. Utah
Switches From Democratic Camp to Republican Camp:
Likely:
1. North Carolina
2. Montana
Possibly:
3. New Hampshire
In other words, Republicans will probably pick up either 2 or 3 governorships on balance.
FINAL BALANCE PREDICTION:
32 or 33 Republican governors <-- Winners. (I'm 100% confident that this will be the basic outcome.)
17 or 18 Democratic governors
SUMMARY:
Whereas the last three election cycles were anti-incumbent cycles, this one, by contrast, is essentially a status quo cycle, indicating that people are at least basically contented...at least when they compare the status quo to the alternatives that they've been presented with. That is why, for example, Republican Governor John Kaisich is popular in Ohio even while Democratic President Barack Obama Obama is pretty much certain to carry the state. That is why, likewise, voters in Wisconsin opted to keep Walker earlier this year and appear about to also vote to keep Obama in a few days. The consistency there is the status quo. i.e. This election will probably make only a minimal difference in the grand scheme of things. Prepare for at least two more years characterized by more of the same.
Concerning the presidential race, I'm being generous in giving Romney Colorado considering that Obama has actually been winning in most recent Colorado polls by a slim margin. I'm giving it to Romney based on the perceived 'directionality factor' that may not actually be in play anymore. So that's one state I may switch to the Obama camp on Monday, depending on how the weekend goes.
Concerning the Senate, my vote on North Dakota is somewhat iffy, though I suspect it will remain Republican. The competitors are running dead even in the polls in North Dakota, but, culturally speaking, in North Dakota a tie now will probably wind up going for the incumbent Republican. I'll monitor this over the weekend. There is a small chance I may change my prediction on that particular race as well.