Originally Posted by
CCitizen
I predict that the Solar Power Revolution will take place about 2050-2100. It will produce great economic growth and a Global Post Scarcity Economy. Even though I possess neither a crystal ball nor a gift of prophecy, in this nanoessay I will make a case for aforementioned claims based on historical patterns. According to Wikipedia, "in a post-scarcity World, most goods will be produced in great abundance with minimal human labor need". Hopefully, an era of Universal Well-Being is less then a century away.
In order to understand the impact of the upcoming Solar Power Revolution, we must understand the impact of the Industrial Revolution which took place about 1820-1970. Throughout History, technology has advanced at an accelerating rate. During the Industrial Revolution, several important changes occurred as a result of technological advancement. The amount of motive power per capita has increased about 85 times. In the pre-industrial society from Ancient Egypt to about 1800 CE, the motive power per capita was 350 kwh/year mainly in the form of draft animal and later water mill power. In USA from about 1980 until now, the motive power per capita is 30,000 kwh/year mainly in the form of electric and automotive power.
Increase in motive power during the Industrial Revolution enabled a great increase in manufacturing output. As a result, there was a great increase in the material standard of living. US real GNP per capita increased by a factor of 45 between 1790 and 2012.
From about 1970 to present, the motive power per capita in the Developed Nations did not grow substantially. The maximum power output based on fossil fuel utilization has been reached. Even though there have been significant developments in technology including the Computer Revolution and the Internet, power technology has lagged behind.
Many scientists predict that Solar Power will become the main source of energy by 2050 or 2060. My prediction is that it will not only be the main source of power but it will also usher a new Industrial Revolution about 2050 -- 2100. I predict that the new Industrial Revolution will be driven by the 60-fold increase in Global Energy Consumption. The calculation is presented in the next paragraph.
According to "Global Energy Forecast to 2100" by Euan Mearns, the Global Energy Consumption should grow from 13.2 billion ton of oil equivalent (toe) in 2015 to 20 billion toe in 2050. Given that the conversion efficiency of primary movers is about 35%, that would mean a growth from 55 trillion kwh to 80 trillion kwh. How much energy can we generate by covering all the deserts with 16% efficient solar cells? The total desert area on Earth is 14 million square kilometers. Each square meter of the desert receives about 2,200 kwh/year of solar energy. Thus the total energy would be
14 trillion m2 * 2,200 kwh/year/m2 * .16 = about 5,000 trillion kwh.
The power output may be further increased by addition of floating Solar Power stations. Some scientists propose space-based Solar Power, but such technology is very complicated and should be at least a century away.
The Solar Power Revolution will produce great wealth for some entrepreneurs. Possibly, some of them will become trillionaires. It will make the nations containing Sahara richer then Saudi Arabia is now. Ethiopia, which is currently one of the poorest nations of the World will have a material standard of living better then USA 2018. The Solar Power Revolution will also increase Global Industrial Output at least 30 times and it will improve the standard of living of all people.
The World in 2100 should be much more affluent then Modern World. Current World population is 7.4 billion and Gross World Product is $108 Trillion (CIA World Factbook). We can assume that population will increase to 30 billion and Gross World Product will increase 30 times due to the new Industrial Revolution. Then global income per capita will be about $110,000 per year. Global energy consumption per capita will be 170,000 kwh/year -- over 5 times more then in USA 2018.
Great improvements in technology and medicine will also improve the standard of living of most people. Self driving cars should replace manually driven cars in 2030s and 2040s. That will decrease motor vehicle accident rate by several orders of magnitude. Robotic Revolution will make manufacturing, distribution, and sale of goods almost labour-free. Internet speed will further increase, and new generations of Social Media will appear. Advances in Medicine will greatly improve people's health.
Hopefully the Post Scarcity Society will provide material well-being, high quality of medical care, and high quality of life to all people in the World. Prior to the Industrial Revolution, the majority of people had to be poor due to low productive capability. In USA 2018, only a minority of people suffer poverty. We can hope that the next Industrial Revolution will make poverty a thing of the past.
Even though some people see Work as a noble pursuit, for many people it is a genuine curse. Hopefully, this curse will become a thing of the past. Hopefully, most people will live lives of affluence and devote their mental energy to spiritual and intellectual pursuits.
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