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Thread: Venezuela, the United States, and Russia: war?

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    Venezuela, the United States, and Russia: war?

    So far the US and other nations have expressed support for Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guido. In response Venezuelan president Maduro told US diplomats to exit the country in 72 hours.

    The US then said Maduro no longer has governmental authority and the US would not recall its Ambassador.

    Now Russia warns the US to not take military action in Venezuela.

    Russia warned the U.S. on Thursday not to intervene militarily in Venezuela, saying such a move would trigger a catastrophe.

    Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido declared himself interim president on Wednesday, winning the backing of Washington and prompting socialist incumbent Nicolas Maduro to sever diplomatic relations with the United States. Violence flared during big protests across Venezuela, and at least seven deaths were reported.



    In an interview with Russian journal International Affairs published on Thursday, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said Moscow would stand with Venezuela to protect its sovereignty and the principle of non-interference in its domestic affairs.

    Asked about the prospect of U.S. military intervention in Venezuela, Ryabkov said Washington should steer well clear.


    "We warn against that," he said. "We consider that would be a catastrophic scenario that would shake the foundations of the development model which we see in Latin America."


    President Donald Trump has promised to use the "full weight" of U.S. economic and diplomatic power to push for the restoration of Venezuela's democracy.
    So, would the US use military force? Certainly if US diplomats are attacked it would. Would Russia respond militarily even if a US military response was limited to protect its diplomatic staff? This could spiral out of control.

    Also Turkey supports Maduro.
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    Question: Pompeo said the diplomats would not be leaving as the US does not recognize Maduro as a legitimate authority. Does that translate to a directive? Are the diplomats permitted to leave if they want to? And if so and they do, will they lose their jobs?

    I don't know how these things work.

    Is it true that the US backed the opposition in Venezuela? Does that mean anything more than giving verbal support?

    Does the US have a genuine need to stick its nose in what other countries are doing? And do these recent events in Venezuela do anything to diminish "America First"?
    You are wrong about police.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Helena View Post
    Question: Pompeo said the diplomats would not be leaving as the US does not recognize Maduro as a legitimate authority. Does that translate to a directive? Are the diplomats permitted to leave if they want to? And if so and they do, will they lose their jobs?
    The US stated yesterday that they no longer consider Maduro Venezuela's president. US diplomats can request to leave and it would be up to the State Department to decide, but unless leaving diplomatic staff can be immediately replaced, it is doubtful such requests would be granted. They are free to quit.
    Quote Originally Posted by Helena View Post
    I don't know how these things work.

    Is it true that the US backed the opposition in Venezuela? Does that mean anything more than giving verbal support?
    Yes it does mean more than verbal support, if only that it ramps up the tension 100%. Especially considering Moscow's statements. Remember Russia sent a couple of nuclear capable bombers to Venezuela recently- those are gone for now I believe.

    Whether the US takes any further action remains to be seen. Any attack on our diplomatic staff, however, will most certainly result in military action.

    Quote Originally Posted by Helena View Post
    Does the US have a genuine need to stick its nose in what other countries are doing? And do these recent events in Venezuela do anything to diminish "America First"?
    The US does have national security interests in Venezuela to the extent that chaos there will harm US allies in the region and could lead to migration problems. But I don't think those interests rise to the level of war.

    I don't think recent events in Venezuela diminish "America First." Yet.
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    Here is an article from WaPo about Russian investment in Venezuela.

    Russia is at risk of losing its ~$25B investment in the country.

    Russia has invested years of effort and billions of dollars into turning Venezuela into one of its closest allies in the Western hemisphere. On Thursday, Moscow was jolted by the prospect that its investment could be going up in smoke.

    Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev called events in Caracas a “quasi-coup.” Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the opposition to Nicolás Maduro was becoming “pawns in someone else’s very dirty and criminal game.” President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman said that “attempts to usurp power in Venezuela are illegitimate and contradict international law.”


    Even by Russian standards, it was a day of furious commentary casting the United States as the sinister puppeteer illegally fomenting regime change around the world. But behind the outrage lay an uncomfortable reality: A multibillion-dollar bet on building Russian influence in Latin America suddenly looked like it could quickly go bad.


    Dmitry Rozental, a scholar at the Latin America Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said further instability could increase the risk that Russia will lose a total investment in the Venezuelan economy he estimated at close to $25 billion. If opposition leader Juan Guaidó — whom the United States on Wednesday recognized as interim president — gains power, Rozental said, then political and military contacts between Moscow and Caracas would be sure to decrease.
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    I would add that other countries are supporting the new guy, to include Canada.
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    There will be sanctions and, possibly, a naval blockade. nothing more than that will be done. If there is military gorund action it will be from South American nations.
    Liberals are a clear and present danger to our nation
    Pick your enemies carefully.






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    Quote Originally Posted by Captdon View Post
    There will be sanctions and, possibly, a naval blockade. nothing more than that will be done. If there is military gorund action it will be from South American nations.
    What if US diplomats are seized, harmed, or killed?
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    I just heard on the radio that a G5 jet has landed. Some speculate it is for Maduro's flight into exile. I think Cuba will be his destination.
    " I'm old-fashioned. I like two sexes! And another thing, all of a sudden I don't like being married to what is known as a 'new woman'. I want a wife, not a competitor. Competitor! Competitor!" - Spencer Tracy in 'Adam's Rib' (1949)

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    Quote Originally Posted by jimmyz View Post
    I just heard on the radio that a G5 jet has landed. Some speculate it is for Maduro's flight into exile. I think Cuba will be his destination.
    That would be a good end and defuse the situation.
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    The best way for this to end is old style exile for Maduro. He should be given a spot (Cuba as Peter mentions) enough money to live very well there.

    Now you might say why the hell should he get that? It is simple it is how bloodshed is avoided. This used to be the way it was done until we started making "dead enders" out of these leaders. Think Milosovich in Serbia, Gaddafi, Saddam Hussein.. when you tell these leaders you will be deposed and then sent to the Hauge for trial and jailed or executed by mobs in the street you give them no reason to leave.

    Sounds unfair or unjust, but is having 10K killed and countries destroyed better?

    A deal needs to be struck and all will be averted.
    "Don't piss down my back and tell me it's raining"----Fletcher in The Outlaw Josey Wales

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