Beto O'Rourke and Donald Trump

[ripmeister]

If O'Rourke could not beat one of the most beatable incumbants in the US Senate, he's not going to be elected POTUS.

I don't know that much about O'Rourke but a national election is a completely different animal from a local/state election. I was surprised O'Rourke even made it a contest considering how red Texas is. I don't remember the number but didn't Trump win big in Texas?

[Max Rockatansky]

I don't know that much about O'Rourke but a national election is a completely different animal from a local/state election. I was surprised O'Rourke even made it a contest considering how red Texas is. I don't remember the number but didn't Trump win big in Texas?

Agreed on national elections. Trump won 52.23% to Hillary's 43.24%. Cruz won the Texas vote in the primary. What do you consider "win big"?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_U...ction_in_Texas

[Tahuyaman]

I don't know that much about O'Rourke but a national election is a completely different animal from a local/state election. I was surprised O'Rourke even made it a contest considering how red Texas is. I don't remember the number but didn't Trump win big in Texas?

O'Rourke will attract only a very small following nationally. Other than an unusual name, he has nothing new to offer. Still, I would welcome him into entering the race.

[ripmeister]

Agreed on national elections. Trump won 52.23% to Hillary's 43.24%. Cruz won the Texas vote in the primary. What do you consider "win big"?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_U...ction_in_Texas

I don't know. 10% differential?

[ripmeister]

O'Rourke will attract only a very small following nationally. Other than an unusual name, he has nothing new to offer. Still, I would welcome him into entering the race.

Only time will tell on that. He seemed to have success in Texas to a large degree due to his charisma. I wouldn't minimize that.

[Tahuyaman]

Only time will tell on that. He seemed to have success in Texas to a large degree due to his charisma. I wouldn't minimize that.

His charisma was mostly based on one thing. He's not Ted Cruz.

[pjohns]

[Beto O'Rourke] seemed to have success in Texas to a large degree due to his charisma. I wouldn't minimize that.

Yes, you are certainly correct as concerning the importance of charisma--both Bill Clinton and Barack Obama proved that--but I rather doubt that O'Rourke would play well nationally.

Moreover, if Donald Trump decides to run for a second term--and that is still rather uncertain--he will probably win. This is not due principally to the policies of President Trump (although I will admit that I like the overwhelming majority of them), but because an incumbent president is very difficult to defeat; and especially one who was actually elected, as opposed to merely inheriting the office (as the late Gerald Ford did). (In fact--and I was born in 1948--the only instance of this, within my lifetime, came in 1992, when then-President George H.W. Bush lost to Bill Clinton.)

[ripmeister]

His charisma was mostly based on one thing. He's not Ted Cruz.

That certainly could be. Which reminds me. Whats with Cruz' beard. That thing looks like a wolverine with the mange.

[Tahuyaman]

That certainly could be. Which reminds me. Whats with Cruz' beard. That thing looks like a wolverine with the mange.

His beard doesn’t concern me in the slightest. I’m concerned with substance.

[Max Rockatansky]

I don't know. 10% differential?

It's a WAG, but I'd agree 10% or larger is a solid win.