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Thread: The Polling Industry Is in Crisis

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    The Polling Industry Is in Crisis

    We should know better than to trust polls.

    The Polling Industry Is in Crisis

    The polls were unequivocal. In 2016, two days before Michigan’s Democratic primary, the respected Marist poll predicted that Hillary Clinton would win in a landslide, with 57 percent of the vote to Bernie Sanders’s 40 percent. On the morning of the March 8 primary, James Hohmann of The Washington Post wrote, “Michigan should have been fertile territory for Bernie Sanders’s populist and protectionist message, but he’s expected to lose the Democratic primary there today by double digits.” That night is mostly remembered for the marathon coverage of a bizarre press conference in which Donald Trump, who had just won three primaries of his own, shamelessly hawked Trump Steaks and Trump Wine. But if TV viewers had squinted at the crawl, they would have noticed that Sanders was pulling off a stunning, poll-defying upset—defeating Clinton by 1.5 percent. At the time, Nate Silver called it “among the greatest polling errors in primary history.”

    Polling meltdowns like the one in Michigan—where pollsters missed the mark by roughly 20 percentage points—should have chastened the journalists who printed flawed forecasts throughout the 2016 campaign, all the way up until the night of November 8. But political handicappers have about as much humility as Trump does. To take roughly one week in May, they produced such headlines as, “Biden dominates Dem rivals in new early primary polls” (Politico), “Warren’s rebound? Massachusetts senator gains footing in polls” (Fox News), and “Brutal new 2020 numbers for Beto O’Rourke and Bill de Blasio” (The Washington Post). What these stories didn’t mention is that today, seven months before Iowa, polls are about as accurate as a blunderbuss, and most pollsters know it. As Diane Feldman, a leading Democratic pollster turned consultant, put it, “I want the public to believe the news media, but they are blowing their credibility by overhyping the polls.”

    ...To explain the wild fluctuations in their numbers, pollsters and their eager enablers in the press have created an artificial narrative of candidates bouncing up and down as if the campaign were conducted on pogo sticks. As Karlyn Bowman, a polling analyst for American Enterprise Institute, said, “Pollsters think that it’s good for business to have a new poll almost every morning.” Some are experimenting with online and texting polls. But until they come up with a reliable substitute, almost all of them are forced to fudge the numbers, artificially inflating the responses they get from, say, young voters....
    Edmund Burke: "In vain you tell me that Artificial Government is good, but that I fall out only with the Abuse. The Thing! the Thing itself is the Abuse!"

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    And that is what they are doing now with the Demos vs Trump polls.


    Hence the thread on Fake Polls.
    Don't only Practice your Art, but force your way into its Secrets, For it and Knowledge can Raise men to the Divine!!!!! Ludwig Van Beethoven ~

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    Right, but as we see, both sides rejoice in them and reject them depending on whose ox is gored.
    Edmund Burke: "In vain you tell me that Artificial Government is good, but that I fall out only with the Abuse. The Thing! the Thing itself is the Abuse!"

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chris View Post
    Right, but as we see, both sides rejoice in them and reject them depending on whose ox is gored.
    Ever since Bilbo Clinton got the Demos and their Cult following, into them heavily. I have always thrown them up just to get the left to connipt.
    Don't only Practice your Art, but force your way into its Secrets, For it and Knowledge can Raise men to the Divine!!!!! Ludwig Van Beethoven ~

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chris View Post
    Right, but as we see, both sides rejoice in them and reject them depending on whose ox is gored.
    It looks to me that conservatives tend to be skeptical of all polls.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tahuyaman View Post
    It looks to me that conservatives tend to be skeptical of all polls.
    You'd think but we see polls posted by conservatives when they favor what they favor.
    Edmund Burke: "In vain you tell me that Artificial Government is good, but that I fall out only with the Abuse. The Thing! the Thing itself is the Abuse!"

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chris View Post
    You'd think but we see polls posted by conservatives when they favor what they favor.
    Some people post polls just to create a discussion

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tahuyaman View Post
    Some people post polls just to create a discussion
    Or just to get the leftness to connipt.
    Don't only Practice your Art, but force your way into its Secrets, For it and Knowledge can Raise men to the Divine!!!!! Ludwig Van Beethoven ~

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    Others post polls because they think it confirms a bias.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tahuyaman View Post
    Some people post polls just to create a discussion
    OK, true.

    Some, as you say, to confirm bias.

    Some to make a negative reality look positive.
    Edmund Burke: "In vain you tell me that Artificial Government is good, but that I fall out only with the Abuse. The Thing! the Thing itself is the Abuse!"

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