Recession ahead? Dow, stocks tank on fears that bond market signals a downturn

[Cotton1]

I think the markets are just reacting to the trade war with China. It is not a signal that the US is entering a recession. The US T-bill is one of the few safe places to put your money - Euro markets have negative interest rates in their markets (to include bonds).

The yield curve inverted (short term rates overtook long term rates) which has been a forecaster of every recession over the past 50 years. Personally, I think the markets overreacted. After all there are exceptions to every rule. That being said the inverted yield / recession link is certainly no " rule". Either way when the markets are at the levels theu have been only good news wilel suffice. Imo, the markets could use a shakeout to transfer some holdings to stronger hands. In other news we are looking at an economy that is on top historically and imo this inversion is more of a reflection of global difficulties not domestic. We shall see.

[Peter1469]

The yield curve inverted (short term rates overtook long term rates) which has been a forecaster of every recession over the past 50 years. Personally, I think the markets overreacted. After all there are exceptions to every rule. That being said the inverted yield / recession link is certainly no " rule". Either way when the markets are at the levels theu have been only good news wilel suffice. Imo, the markets could use a shakeout to transfer some holdings to stronger hands. In other news we are looking at an economy that is on top historically and imo this inversion is more of a reflection of global difficulties not domestic. We shall see.

Yes, our bond yields are better than most everyone else.

[MisterVeritis]

Economists have been suggesting this for some time now.

Hard leftist economists who want Trump defeated are suggesting it.

Don't pay attention to them. There is no recession in the near or even the mid term. Look at least two years out. When President Trump wins the election again the economy will continue to grow.

[Bo-4]

Most of this involves President Poopstain's stupid trade war with China.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019...ess-jay-powell

[Bo-4]

There is always a recession ahead. It is like climate change. And the usual suspects are involved.

I lost more than 10K today. I will make it all back tomorrow.

Yer dreamin' MV. Take a look at the Dow since January when Dotardo started his dumb trade war. Flat as a F-ing pancake.

You should be investing in tax free muni bonds and perhaps a bit of real estate until the idiot mercifully leaves the building on 1-20-21

[MisterVeritis]

Yer dreamin' MV. Take a look at the Dow since January when Dotardo started his dumb trade war. Flat as a F-ing pancake.

You should be investing in tax free muni bonds and perhaps a bit of real estate until the idiot mercifully leaves the building on 1-20-21

The so-called trade war is essential.

If I followed any advice you offered I would be poorer.

President Trump will leave office in January 2025.

[Captdon]

I would say it dropped because of all the talk about the bond yield and all the talk in the media about a recession. All the bond yield tells us is that short term rates are too high.

The people who work the Market are always on the verge of a breakdown. They're so smart they didn't see the housing markee collapse that gave us the last recession.

[Cotton1]

Yer dreamin' MV. Take a look at the Dow since January when Dotardo started his dumb trade war. Flat as a F-ing pancake.

You should be investing in tax free muni bonds and perhaps a bit of real estate until the idiot mercifully leaves the building on 1-20-21

Interesting. Thank God youre only an internet hack , not an advisor. The dow " flat"? Ok..23000 in Jan 26000. Roughly 12% in 8 months. That's 18% annualized. Now..tax free munis? Please refrain from one size fits all advice. Not a problem to me bit you are obviously not qualified nor do you have the credentials to advise anyone but you about money. You have a moral obligation to your fellow human to #1 do no harm. Munis and real estate are not suitable for all. Unless someone is in a high tax bracket its not suitable to accept the lower yield. #2. Due diligence. Unless you are ignorant , a parrot or podunk mfer its proper to understand a person's net, investable, cash and equivs, objectives , taxes, estate considerations , debt to equity, cash flow , risk tolerance, age , level of investor sophistication amd more. You don't want someone who knows as little as say yourself taking you blindly on advice. I dont mean this arrogant but most people are financially illiterate. Why? Glad you asked. For the same reason im not a dentist , welder , pimp or MD. Not my training, education or expertise. Oh yea. .muni yields what 2%? Brilliant. With a 3% inflation rate they only lose 1%. Safe but a sure loser. I use a rule of 130. With NO other variables subtract age from 130. If you are 50 have no more than 80% in equities. For more conservatives use rule of 110 which is 60%. Understand basics such as rule of 72, fibonacchi sequence etc. Understand causation. Never confuse a bull market for brains. Me and mine have spent our lives showing you and yours we can and thrash you in the trading pits. It amazes me how joe q public hair thinks he can come into our sandbox , play by our rules, go against some of the brightest and ambitious peeps known to man , our capitalization which is immense , our links to the pits, margins , vox / put call etc ratios and beat us. Just follow we lead. Im not being $#@!y . I am just saying I am mufh more intelligent than you in this regard, my education level and decades of experience are priceless and I have the genetics and contacts to shake rattle and roll over anyone that impedes my efforts on my behalf or the behalf of others. Btw. Im one of the good guys. :. Btw..please disagree with me. I spent an hour with a friend of mine who is a liberal. We never discuss politics and my belief that liberalism is a mental illness is looking to be spot on. He said " what are corporations doing with the money they are saving on taxes ? Im like #1. Thank God your dad was a dr and you are a trust funder or youd be suckkin hickory dikery cocs for $1 to eat. #2. Ok..you say im a racist ? Oh really. .well dang. Lol. I told him if I was so pathetic I defined my life trying to be PC and hoping you dont say im racist just shoot me now. I said " im sorry 13% of the population commits 55% of murders one of which was my cousin at point blank range for no reason. Thats not racism . it's a fact. If you just have to report back to the death to America ragheads , xenosexuals , berry pickers etc tell them tough sht im a realist. He then asked about slavery and statues. Im like ok lets tear down the MLK signs in every ghetto. Im sorry my great great great grandpa was crapped out of his mama in the South and he was basically dead and weighed 60 lbs when released from pow camp. The good news is he did make it 2 days in the train home before he died. Oh...btw slavery is the only record we have of some of those brain surg
eons actually working.. Geez

Oppps missed something. When my liberal friend said " wth are corporations doing with the money they save on taxes under Trump. ? I lol and said " pardon me for believing we are fine in the role of us being the custodians of our own money..oh yea i hope they are doing wth pleases the needy disesases be they actual, $$, social etc. After all it is THEIR own money
When i got out if the car I said to not forget to call.me a racist , misunderstanding of economics and that just because i proved in my accounts , poa and limited poa accts , spec accts , hedge accts , seamless transfer of riak, forward contracted obligations , note i am taking delivary of 400,000 bf of lumber at pod as far as you know.but..im not. I told him to stop asking if I thought i was better than him because irs quite apparent that I am..pop goes the cork. Good evening martini and Rossi. Throwdown time.southern style. Boom +1

[Captdon]

Interesting. Thank God youre only an internet hack , not an advisor. The dow " flat"? Ok..23000 in Jan 26000. Roughly 12% in 8 months. That's 18% annualized. Now..tax free munis? Please refrain from one size fits all advice. Not a problem to me bit you are obviously not qualified nor do you have the credentials to advise anyone but you about money. You have a moral obligation to your fellow human to #1 do no harm. Munis and real estate are not suitable for all. Unless someone is in a high tax bracket its not suitable to accept the lower yield. #2. Due diligence. Unless you are ignorant , a parrot or podunk mfer its proper to understand a person's net, investable, cash and equivs, objectives , taxes, estate considerations , debt to equity, cash flow , risk tolerance, age , level of investor sophistication amd more. You don't want someone who knows as little as say yourself taking you blindly on advice. I dont mean this arrogant but most people are financially illiterate. Why? Glad you asked. For the same reason im not a dentist , welder , pimp or MD. Not my training, education or expertise. Oh yea. .muni yields what 2%? Brilliant. With a 3% inflation rate they only lose 1%. Safe but a sure loser. I use a rule of 130. With NO other variables subtract age from 130. If you are 50 have no more than 80% in equities. For more conservatives use rule of 110 which is 60%. Understand basics such as rule of 72, fibonacchi sequence etc. Understand causation. Never confuse a bull market for brains. Me and mine have spent our lives showing you and yours we can and thrash you in the trading pits. It amazes me how joe q public hair thinks he can come into our sandbox , play by our rules, go against some of the brightest and ambitious peeps known to man , our capitalization which is immense , our links to the pits, margins , vox / put call etc ratios and beat us. Just follow we lead. Im not being $#@!y . I am just saying I am mufh more intelligent than you in this regard, my education level and decades of experience are priceless and I have the genetics and contacts to shake rattle and roll over anyone impedes my efforts on my behalf or the behalf of others. Btw. Im one of the good guys.

I put what little money I have in the hands of people like you. Don't $#@! up.

[Cotton1]

I put what little money I have in the hands of people like you. Don't $#@! up.

Thank you. I took early retirement at 55 but I still help friends , assorted entities etc in an advisory role. I was brought up in a very structured naive and overprotected manner. Thats why i basically caved in when my wife and father passed. A 50 something with coping skills of a 15 year old. I thought coping was what dad, my people, his people, preachers , tennis partners etc did for me when I had a crisis. Its amazing the she you learn when youve been incubated in a bubble. I will say im impressed with where I am now. Im at peace. Im sort of happy but struggling with the stimuli resulting in redefining my life as causation. A lot of it likely is a surival skill. .?? When my wife died my over riding emotion was fear. The trauma was unbearable. I slept with the lights on. I do not understand finality. Her passing only destroyed my family, my father, her two beautiful children , her mother who lost am only child , friends. I had no idea I once understood life until I didnt. But im ok..s
As for my analytical skills, gift in math etc im sharp as ever. Finance markets are a very simple game. Money is how you keep score. I wish it was complex to make me look smarter but it's just not. My little sis the minister ? I call her " Sunday Money". Sundays are the easy part. It's the other 6 days that truly show only a silly wabbit doesn't understand that Trix truly are for kids.