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Thread: Poll: If Recession Comes, Trump Owns It

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    Poll: If Recession Comes, Trump Owns It

    President Donald Trump has promised a booming economy as a key part of his 2020 pitch. Voters — including his own supporters — might hold him to that.


    Trump got a taste of the damage an economic downturn could deal to his 2020 reelection campaign last week when the Dow plummeted and the yield curve inverted for the first time since the lead-up to the 2008 financial crisis. Since then, Trump has continued to publicly insist that the United States is keeping up its decade-long expansion, while, paradoxically, the White House has begun to discuss measures that would offset a recession.


    Trump might have good reason to feel anxious. Voters would overwhelmingly pin an economic recession on Trump, according to a Morning Consult/Politico poll.

    Sixty-nine percent of all voters would at least partially blame Trump for a recession, according to the poll, while 19 percent said he wouldn’t be responsible at all.

    Notably, Trump faces pressure from his own supporters, as well. Just shy of half (49 percent) of those who voted for Trump in 2016 would hold him at least partially responsible for a major economic downturn, while 40 percent wouldn’t.

    The survey polled 1,998 registered voters from Aug. 16-18 and carries a margin of error of 2 percentage points.

    ---------------------

    https://morningconsult.com/2019/08/2...r-a-recession/


    Somewhere, Abraham Lincoln is laughing because you really can't fool all the people all the time.

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    Earlier this year my broker told me that he was going to move things into recession proof holdings b/c UBS analysts predicted a recession late 20 /early 21. This was in January or February of this year. @alexa - I think you're right -- he will get blamed for a recession, the President in office at the time always does. Can you imagine the insane twitters he'll blast out?
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    Quote Originally Posted by DGUtley View Post
    Earlier this year my broker told me that he was going to move things into recession proof holdings b/c UBS analysts predicted a recession late 20 /early 21. This was in January or February of this year. @alexa - I think you're right -- he will get blamed for a recession, the President in office at the time always does. Can you imagine the insane twitters he'll blast out?
    You need to reconsider your idiot broker.

    There won't be a recession. Once President Trump is re-elected the economy will be set for another four years of growth. If you gave legal advice based on what a handful of hard leftist lawyers said was coming in a couple of years your clients would fire you.
    Last edited by MisterVeritis; 08-21-2019 at 11:51 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by DGUtley View Post
    Earlier this year my broker told me that he was going to move things into recession proof holdings b/c UBS analysts predicted a recession late 20 /early 21. This was in January or February of this year. @alexa - I think you're right -- he will get blamed for a recession, the President in office at the time always does. Can you imagine the insane twitters he'll blast out?
    I've been mostly in munis since the spring, probably 65-70% of my portfolio.

    When has the Dear Leader sent out tweets that weren't insane?



    As for me being right, I didn't commission nor conduct the poll.
    Last edited by alexa; 08-21-2019 at 11:56 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MisterVeritis View Post
    You need to reconsider your idiot broker. There won't be a recession. Once President Trump is re-elected the economy will be set for another four years of growth. If you gave legal advice based on what a handful of hard leftist lawyers said was coming in a couple of years you clients would fire you.
    Ok, well he's done very well for me.
    Quote Originally Posted by alexa View Post
    I've been mostly in munis since the spring, probably 65-70% of my portfolio. When has the Dear Leader sent out tweets that weren't insane?
    I didn't know that Kim tweeted but I'll look.

    Yes, muni's also. In Ohio, they're insured so they're guaranteed. (or as guaranteed as anything can be). I don't know what percentage but when we met last year he was all-in on tax free municipal bonds. I got the impression that by the end of this year we'd be bunkered down. As for tax free muni bonds - think about it, you can get 4.5 - 6% tax free, no risk. He even popped up with some he bought at estate auctions (??) (really short terms) that were 9% plus.
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    Quote Originally Posted by DGUtley View Post
    Ok, well he's done very well for me.


    I didn't know that Kim tweeted but I'll look.

    Yes, muni's also. In Ohio, they're insured so they're guaranteed. (or as guaranteed as anything can be). I don't know what percentage but when we met last year he was all-in on tax free municipal bonds. I got the impression that by the end of this year we'd be bunkered down. As for tax free muni bonds - think about it, you can get 4.5 - 6% tax free, no risk. He even popped up with some he bought at estate auctions (??) (really short terms) that were 9% plus.
    I've been in tax free munis since the 90's.

    I've never bought munis that were taxable or rated lower than Aa1 by Moody's.

    I'd have to think bonds yielding 9% plus are approaching junk status.

    Something to take a flyer on perhaps, but I wouldn't put a significant chunk of my money in them.

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    Quote Originally Posted by alexa View Post
    I've been in tax free munis since the 90's. I've never bought munis that were taxable or rated lower than Aa1 by Moody's. I'd have to think bonds yielding 9% plus are approaching junk status. Something to take a flyer on perhaps, but I wouldn't put a significant chunk of my money in them.
    They were some old long term Ohio State University (might've been the hospital not the university, I forget) stuff. He got them from an estate sale and we only had them 13 or 14 months. I didn't know there was a secondary market for that stuff.
    Any time you give a man something he doesn't earn, you cheapen him. Our kids earn what they get, and that includes respect. -- Woody Hayes​

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    Quote Originally Posted by DGUtley View Post
    Ok, well he's done very well for me.
    If he is buying and selling based on what some idiot leftists say might happen in a couple of years perhaps he has not done as well for you as you believe.
    Call your state legislators and insist they approve the Article V convention of States to propose amendments.


    I pledge allegiance to the Constitution as written and understood by this nation's founders, and to the Republic it created, an indivisible union of sovereign States, with liberty and justice for all.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DGUtley View Post
    They were some old long term Ohio State University (might've been the hospital not the university, I forget) stuff. He got them from an estate sale and we only had them 13 or 14 months. I didn't know there was a secondary market for that stuff.
    The muni bond market is more driven by individual investors than corporate is.

    I sleep well at night, even with the current clown in the WH.

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    Quote Originally Posted by alexa View Post
    President Donald Trump has promised a booming economy as a key part of his 2020 pitch. Voters — including his own supporters — might hold him to that.

    then why did democrats take and give credit to obama for things being good


    Trump got a taste of the damage an economic downturn could deal to his 2020 reelection campaign last week when the Dow plummeted and the yield curve inverted for the first time since the lead-up to the 2008 financial crisis. Since then, Trump has continued to publicly insist that the United States is keeping up its decade-long expansion, while, paradoxically, the White House has begun to discuss measures that would offset a recession.


    Trump might have good reason to feel anxious. Voters would overwhelmingly pin an economic recession on Trump, according to a Morning Consult/Politico poll.

    Sixty-nine percent of all voters would at least partially blame Trump for a recession, according to the poll, while 19 percent said he wouldn’t be responsible at all.

    Notably, Trump faces pressure from his own supporters, as well. Just shy of half (49 percent) of those who voted for Trump in 2016 would hold him at least partially responsible for a major economic downturn, while 40 percent wouldn’t.

    The survey polled 1,998 registered voters from Aug. 16-18 and carries a margin of error of 2 percentage points.

    ---------------------

    https://morningconsult.com/2019/08/2...r-a-recession/


    Somewhere, Abraham Lincoln is laughing because you really can't fool all the people all the time.

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