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Thread: The great failure of the climate models

  1. #21
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    skepticalmike's Avatar Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chris View Post
    It's not the intent of the OP to deny climate change or man's part in it but to question the extreme predictions of climate models.

    To me the GIGO factor is the old statistical methods climatologists tend to use. Here's a good discussion of that from a couple of years ago: How Climate Forecasts Are Like Keynesian Models.
    The intent is to convince readers that they don't have to worry about extreme events, the melting of Arctic ice, or future temperature rises. Everything will be fine. He is doing more
    than trying to question extreme predictions. I don't trust that man.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MisterVeritis View Post
    Who cares?
    Most Americans care. You are in a dwindling minority.

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    Tahuyaman's Avatar Senior Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by skepticalmike View Post
    You are wrong. There has been accelerated warming. I don't know where you get your information. 2014-2018 are the 4 warmest years since temp. records have been kept and 2019
    will be hotter than 2018.
    There’s been no warming except in computer models. In the real world it’s been slight cooling for the last twenty years.

    This isn't a mystery.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tahuyaman View Post
    There’s been no warming except in computer models. In the real world it’s been slight cooling for the last twenty years.

    This isn't a mystery.
    What is your source or sources? That is the mystery.

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    Quote Originally Posted by skepticalmike View Post
    The intent is to convince readers that they don't have to worry about extreme events, the melting of Arctic ice, or future temperature rises. Everything will be fine. He is doing more
    than trying to question extreme predictions. I don't trust that man.
    Extreme events have been happening for hundreds even thousands of years.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jet57 View Post
    Then you'll have no trouble reading all these articles: here's one, and calling all of them liars...

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/15/c...july-noaa.html

    And what doers NASA know- right?
    Well, that only proves you fall for the alarmism and are not very well versed in the science.
    I was going to sell my guns to the government but you wouldn’t believe what came up during the background check

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    Humans will be fine. Warmer is better than colder.

    And we will return to the ice age that we are currently warming from.
    ΜOΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ

    Please visit my blog http://thepoliticalforums.com/blogs/peter/
    (If a post link does not work, see the archives- it should work there.)

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    Quote Originally Posted by jet57 View Post
    But - you left this part out of your stupid comments:



    [/FONT][/COLOR]Why do you lie so much?

    And how do you explain soaring levels of C02 during the global warming hiatus? You would need to do that to demonstrate a causative effect. Hint: You cannot as no scientist has yet done so. You're just regurgitating the popular liberal myth that carbon diaoxide drives warming.
    Edmund Burke: "In vain you tell me that Artificial Government is good, but that I fall out only with the Abuse. The Thing! the Thing itself is the Abuse!"

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    Quote Originally Posted by skepticalmike View Post
    There are many things wrong with this article.
    1) The article states that there has been no systematic increase in extreme weather events. The AR5 does say that there have been more heat waves and heavy precipitation events.

    2) the model predictions of the mid-troposphere versus satellite data represent a discrepancy but this does not invalidate models of the entire earth (land-ocean models) even if the
    data is 100% accurate. An article at realclimate.org (comparing models to the satellite data sets) discusses this issue but it is very complicated. A number of irregularities in John
    Christ's graphical presentations were noted and the climate models imparted a 0.1 degree C. bias because of volcanic and solar forcings after 2000 and ENSO (Southern Oscillation)
    variability used in the model was flawed. This is too complicated a subject for me or probably anyone else at this forum.

    3) The first half of the 20th century global mean temperature was affected by a rise in CO2 and also by solar forcings. The article states that all of the temp. rise was natural. Aerosols aslo
    cooled the planet somewhat, especially in the 1940's.

    4)The warming did not stop from 2000 to 2014. That is a lie. Oceans are a big part of the climate system and ocean heat increased greatly during that time. Land temperatures also increased.

    5)The author, Pat Michaels, is implying with no evidence, that the scientific community was dishonest or incompetent in the adjustments to ocean temperatures and to the Arctic temperature
    data (due to a lack of temperature stations)

    6)There isn't plenty of ice over the Arctic. Arctic sea ice has been declining rapidly since 1950 and it is getting much thinner. At some point in the near future the Arctic ocean temperature will
    rise above 0 degrees C. and that will increase the meltdown of Greenland and the release of subsea methane.

    This entire article is dishonest. Pat Michaels has a history of misleading the public about global warming and he has received money from the fossil fuel industry. I remember hearing him on CNN
    saying that we should expect the global mean temp. to increase by about 1 degree C. over the next 100 years. That was back in about 2005. His logic was that CO2 was increasing exponentially
    but the radiative forcing by CO2 is logarithmic so when we multiply these 2 functions together we get a linear curve showing a 1 degree C temp increase He left out all of he climate feedbacks.
    with the feedbacks it would be closer to 3 degrees C.


    Let's take just your first point and point out how you missed the point of the article.

    There are many things wrong with this article.
    1) The article states that there has been no systematic increase in extreme weather events. The AR5 does say that there have been more heat waves and heavy precipitation events.
    The article speaks to extreme weather climate changes. You counter that with non-extreme weather changes.

    You're talking about something altogether different than the article.
    Edmund Burke: "In vain you tell me that Artificial Government is good, but that I fall out only with the Abuse. The Thing! the Thing itself is the Abuse!"

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    Quote Originally Posted by skepticalmike View Post
    You are wrong. There has been accelerated warming. I don't know where you get your information. 2014-2018 are the 4 warmest years since temp. records have been kept and 2019
    will be hotter than 2018.

    Again, you are off-topic. The article speaks to extremes predicted by climate models. You offer as counter mere accelerated warming. Temps are rising but not to the extremes predicted by climate models.
    Edmund Burke: "In vain you tell me that Artificial Government is good, but that I fall out only with the Abuse. The Thing! the Thing itself is the Abuse!"

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