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Thread: The great failure of the climate models

  1. #151
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    skepticalmike's Avatar Senior Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chris View Post
    Be it 10 or 100 times inaccurate, "NASA has conceded that climate models lack the precision required to make climate projections due to the inability to accurately model clouds."
    One person at NASA made that claim. Most of the uncertainty has to do with how much of a positive feedback clouds are. If the climate sensitivity is 3.0 degrees C. for a doubling of CO2, then

    the RCP4.5scenario would give us about 3.0 degrees C. of warming by 2100, which is very dangerous. Paleoclimate studies (not involving computer climate models) of the temperature,

    greenhouse gas changes, and albedo changes during the past 400,000 years arrive at a climate sensitivity of around 3.0 degrees C.

  2. #152
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    Quote Originally Posted by skepticalmike View Post
    One person at NASA made that claim. Most of the uncertainty has to do with how much of a positive feedback clouds are. If the climate sensitivity is 3.0 degrees C. for a doubling of CO2, then

    the RCP4.5scenario would give us about 3.0 degrees C. of warming by 2100, which is very dangerous. Paleoclimate studies (not involving computer climate models) of the temperature,

    greenhouse gas changes, and albedo changes during the past 400,000 years arrive at a climate sensitivity of around 3.0 degrees C.

    I understand what the uncertainty is about.
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  3. #153
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    I left out the last sentence of the paragraph preceding the paragraph I previously posted. That sentence makes the models appear useful and reasonably accurate. If the models can forecast the radiation balance at the
    surface to within +/- 15% ,then that would correspond to a radiation balance between 1.7 and 2.3 watts/square meter for a doubling of carbon dioxide. Also, the computer climate model results don't change as a result of
    this NASA science brief. They are just as useful today as they were before this brief was written because the lack of precision in the projections was already known. I don't understand the justification for the statement that
    today's models need to be improved more than 10 fold in accuracy.

    "They can forecast winds, rain, temperature, cloud cover and radiation balance to within 10 to 15 percent of the magnitude of their real-world counterparts." NASA GISS science briefs cloud climatology computer models

    Unfortunately, that margin of error is too large for making a reliable forecast about global warming. A doubling in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), predicted to take place in the next 50 to 100 years, is expected to change the radiation balance at the surface by only about 2 percent. Yet according to current climate models, even such a small change could raise global temperatures between 2-5C (4-9F), with potentially dramatic consequences. If a 2 percent change makes that much difference, a climate model must be accurate to within at least half a percent to be useful. Thus today's models must be improved more than tenfold in accuracy, requiring much more and much better data for developing a better understanding of clouds.
    Last edited by skepticalmike; 09-03-2019 at 05:47 PM.

  4. #154
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    Quote Originally Posted by skepticalmike View Post
    I left out the last sentence of the paragraph preceding the paragraph I previously posted. That sentence makes the models appear useful and reasonably accurate. If the models can forecast the radiation balance at the
    surface to within +/- 15% ,then that would correspond to a radiation balance between 1.7 and 2.3 watts/square meter for a doubling of carbon dioxide. Also, the computer climate model results don't change as a result of
    this NASA science brief. They are just as useful today as they were before this brief was written because the lack of precision in the projections was already known. I don't understand the justification for the statement that
    today's models need to be improved more than 10 fold in accuracy.

    "They can forecast winds, rain, temperature, cloud cover and radiation balance to within 10 to 15 percent of the magnitude of their real-world counterparts." NASA GISS science briefs cloud climatology computer models

    Unfortunately, that margin of error is too large for making a reliable forecast about global warming. A doubling in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), predicted to take place in the next 50 to 100 years, is expected to change the radiation balance at the surface by only about 2 percent. Yet according to current climate models, even such a small change could raise global temperatures between 2-5C (4-9F), with potentially dramatic consequences. If a 2 percent change makes that much difference, a climate model must be accurate to within at least half a percent to be useful. Thus today's models must be improved more than tenfold in accuracy, requiring much more and much better data for developing a better understanding of clouds.
    "Unfortunately, that margin of error is too large for making a reliable forecast about global warming."

    Yes.

    Doesn't imply no climate change, just implies climatologists have work to do.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Peter1469 View Post
    You cannot just make stuff up and expect to be believed
    Which is why nobody believes a word your cult says.

    Dooms day has be predicted often yet it has never arrived.
    Which is why you should stop with your icy doomsday predictions. You don't see us on the rational side acting like that.

    The AGW side has gotten everything right for 40 years running, hence they have credibility.

    Your side has faceplanted with every prediction for those past 40 years, so you have no credibility.

    Science does not give participation trophies. If you want credibility, you need to stop failing.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoosier8 View Post
    Accurate as in running too hot?
    The models come out a bit too cold, actually, once you factor in the higher-than-expected vulcanism, lower-than-expected solar output, and the fact that climate models are for the whole globe, while temp measurements leave out the poles, where warming is stronger.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mamooth View Post
    The models come out a bit too cold, actually, once you factor in the higher-than-expected vulcanism, lower-than-expected solar output, and the fact that climate models are for the whole globe, while temp measurements leave out the poles, where warming is stronger.
    Man, you are a hoot. You know so little about this.
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