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Thread: An overblown hypothesis: On hurricanes and climate change

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    An overblown hypothesis: On hurricanes and climate change

    Once again some rush to exaggerate hurricane extremes and link it to climate change.

    An overblown hypothesis: On hurricanes and climate change

    ...Climate change theorists assert that warming ocean temperatures are increasing the number and strength of hurricanes that form and make landfall in the United States....

    ...Looking at the historical data, one does not find a startling increase in hurricane activity in recent decades, and only modest evidence to suggest that hurricanes in the Atlantic basin are increasing either in number or severity....

    ...The National Hurricane Center, a division of the National Weather Service, has compiled reliable information on hurricanes going back to the middle of the nineteenth century—though the information the nhc collects has grown much more reliable in recent decades with the development of satellite imagery and ever-more sensitive instruments with which to measure the strength and windspeeds of hurricanes. There is no shortage of information to test the claims about increasing hurricane activity.

    1 Are hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean increasing in frequency with the passage of time?

    The Hurricane Research Division (hrd) of the National Ocean & Atmospheric Administration has tabulated the annual number of Atlantic hurricanes going back to 1851....the averages look like this:

    1950-59: 6.9 per year
    1960-69: 6.1 per year
    1970-79: 5.0 per year
    1980-89: 5.2 per year
    1990-99: 6.4 per year
    2000-09: 7.4 per year
    2010-18: 7.0 per year

    2 Are more hurricanes making landfall in the United States with the passage of time?

    The hrd maintains an accurate list of hurricanes making landfall in the United States going back to 1851 and running through 2018.... Below is the decade-by-decade enumeration going back to 1950:

    1950-59: 18 hurricanes made landfall
    1960-69: 15 hurricanes made landfall
    1970-79: 12 hurricanes made landfall
    1980-89: 16 hurricanes made landfall
    1990-99: 14 hurricanes made landfall
    2000-09: 19 hurricanes made landfall
    2010-18: 11 hurricanes made landfall

    Average by decade, 1950 to 2018: 15
    Average by decade, 1990-2018: 15
    Average by decade, 1950-1989: 15

    3 Are Atlantic hurricanes growing more powerful with the passage of time?

    Over the hundred-seventy-year period, just four Category 5 hurricanes (the most powerful of all storms) have made landfall in the United States: The Labor Day hurricane that hit the Florida Keys in 1935; Hurricane Camille, which hit the Gulf coast in 1969; Hurricane Andrew, which hit south Florida in 1992; and Hurricane Michael, which hit Florida and Georgia in 2018. These events appear unrelated to changes in ocean temperatures....

    The decade-by-decade pattern looks like this:

    1950-59: 3.9 major hurricanes per year (Category 3, 4, and 5)
    1960-69: 2.8 major hurricanes per year
    1970-79: 1.6 major hurricanes per year
    1980-89: 1.7 major hurricanes per year
    1990-99: 2.5 major hurricanes per year
    2000-09: 3.6 major hurricanes per year
    2010-18: 2.9 major hurricanes per year

    Average by decade, 1950-2018: 2.7 per year
    Average by decade, 1950-1969: 3.3 per year
    Average by decade, 1970-1989: 1.7 per year
    Average by decade, 1990-2018: 3.0 per year

    ...How, then, in view of these data, should we assess the claims that Atlantic hurricanes are increasing in numbers and strength in recent decades in response to rising atmospheric and ocean temperatures, and are also making landfall at increasing rates?

    There has been a modest increase in the frequency of Atlantic hurricanes in recent decades along with a slight increase in their strength from year to year, but no increase in the number of hurricanes making landfall in the United States and no increase since 1950 in the number of the most powerful hurricanes (Category 4 and 5 storms) to hit the U.S. mainland. Moreover, any trend that we find in the frequency and strength of hurricanes in the past few decades is mostly washed out when we compare those rates to the ones experienced in the 1950s and 1960s. This suggests that the frequency and strength, though perhaps increasing of late, are but loosely related to recent measured increases in Atlantic Ocean temperatures.

    Posted this last year when the same claims were raised: Thirty years of Atlantic hurricanes

    This is a history of every Atlantic storm tracked by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration since 1987.



    ...How to read this chart: Each line represents the life of a storm as recorded by NOAA. The higher the line within each year, the higher the recorded wind speed. Storms that reached Category 5, the strongest of the strong, are highlighted in red. Mouse over each storm to see the name, dates, and highest recorded windspeed of each storm.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chris View Post
    Once again some rush to exaggerate hurricane extremes and link it to climate change.

    An overblown hypothesis: On hurricanes and climate change




    Posted this last year when the same claims were raised: Thirty years of Atlantic hurricanes
    Wait until they name one after Melania..................
    For waltky: http://quakes.globalincidentmap.com/
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    Yep, even against the NOAA and IPCC so the science deniers are really the alarmists.
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    Luke-warminst Bjorn Lomborg:

    Tradition is not the worship of ashes, but the preservation of fire. ― Gustav Mahler

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    https://www.google.com/amp/weatherpl...just-luck/amp/

    Do not live in hurricane country and complain about hurricanes.

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    Quote Originally Posted by stjames1_53 View Post
    Wait until they name one after Melania..................
    First Herricane?

    I know, I know ...

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    Read the article in the Guardian. Hurricanes are getting stronger and lasting longer. They are also growing in strength faster than before.


    https://www.theguardian.com/weather/ng-interactive/2018/sep/11/atlantic-hurricanes-are-storms-getting-worse

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    Quote Originally Posted by skepticalmike View Post
    Read the article in the Guardian. Hurricanes are getting stronger and lasting longer. They are also growing in strength faster than before.


    https://www.theguardian.com/weather/ng-interactive/2018/sep/11/atlantic-hurricanes-are-storms-getting-worse

    The problem with that article is rather than looking at trends it single out instances, but you can't generalize from instances. For instance:



    It makes much of single instances but overall is no different than the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chris View Post
    The problem with that article is rather than looking at trends it single out instances, but you can't generalize from instances. For instance:



    It makes much of single instances but overall is no different than the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data.
    Your article seems to engage in a straw man argument by claiming that "climate change theorists" assert that there will be an increase in frequency of Atlantic hurricanes making landfall in the U.S.

    That is not what I have read from the scientific community and that isn't a position of the most recent IPCC report. The claim made by the scientific community is that hurricanes will bring more rainfall,

    will often form faster, and will be somewhat stronger in the future. The probability of a major hurricane forming in the Atlantic and being more or less likely to strike the continental U.S. is something

    that I haven't read about and I assume it is unknown. I have read that the trajectory of Atlantic hurricanes is changing and moving slowly northward.

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...ill-get-worse/
    From Scientific American:


    Last week researchers published that data in Earth’s Future. The numbers indicate the amount of energy Harvey pulled from the ocean, in the form of rising water vapor, equaled the amount of energy it dropped over land in the form of rain—the first time such an equivalence has been documented. Investigators say this revelation supports assertions climate change is likely to make Atlantic hurricanes bigger, more intense and longer-lasting than in the past. The researchers calculate climate change caused Harvey’s rainfall to be 15 to 38 percent greater than it would have been otherwise.


    Warmer oceans mean more intense hurricanes. But you note that the number of large storms might actually decrease. Why?

    By pulling up an ocean’s heat, a hurricane leaves a colder ocean in its wake. One big storm creates more cooling than, say, four smaller storms. It leaves a cooler ocean that is less favorable for a new storm.

    That explains why Harvey got so big; your paper notes that the Gulf of Mexico water temperature was several degrees hotter than usual for late August. But why did Harvey stay big?Over the ocean a hurricane’s circulation typically reaches about 1,000 miles in all directions, grabbing moisture and bringing it into the storm. Once over land the storm dries and weakens. But even when two sides of Harvey were over land, the spiral arm bands reached well out over the Gulf, which was still very warm. That kept the storm going.

    After several days the storm moved back over the Gulf before it came inland again, and then moved north. We don’t attribute that movement to climate change. But the fact that when it did come back over the Gulf it reintensified is very much related to climate change. Despite the fact that Harvey had taken a lot of energy from the Gulf and cooled the waters in the upper 100 meters in particular, the deeper Gulf was still warm enough to well up and sustain hurricane-force winds.
    Last edited by skepticalmike; 09-08-2019 at 01:36 AM.

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