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Thread: The great failure of the climate models

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    The great failure of the climate models

    The data demonstrate The great failure of the climate models.

    Computer models of the climate are at the heart of calls to ban the cheap, reliable energy that powers our thriving economy and promotes healthier, longer lives. For decades, these models have projected dramatic warming from small, fossil-fueled increases in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, with catastrophic consequences.

    Yet, the real-world data arenít cooperating. They show only slight warming, mostly at night and in winter. According to the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, there has been no systematic increase in the frequency of extreme weather events, and the ongoing rise in sea level that began with the end of the ice age continues with no great increase in magnitude. The constancy of land-based records is obvious in data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

    Should we trust these computer models of doom? Letís find out by comparing the actual temperatures since 1979 with what the 32 families of climate models used in the latest U.N. report on climate science predicted they would be.

    Atmospheric scientist John Christy developed a global temperature record of the lower atmosphere using highly accurate satellite soundings. NASA honored him for this achievement, and he was an author for a previous edition of the U.N. report. He told a House Science Committee hearing in March 2017 that the U.N. climate models have failed badly.

    Christy compared the average model projections since 1979 to the most reliable observations ó those made by satellites and weather balloons over the vast tropics. The result? In the upper levels of the lower atmosphere, the models predicted seven times as much warming as has been observed. Overprediction also occurred at all other levels. Christy recently concluded that, on average, the projected heating by the models is three times what has been observed.

    This is a critical error....
    Edmund Burke: "In vain you tell me that Artificial Government is good, but that I fall out only with the Abuse. The Thing! the Thing itself is the Abuse!"

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    Computer models are the only place global warming is happening. There's a saying when it comes to computer models....... Garbage in, Garbage out.

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    When it comes to computer models, you can’t throw in political opinions, intentionally altered and cherry-picked data and come out with scientific facts.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tahuyaman View Post
    Computer models are the only place global warming is happening. There's a saying when it comes to computer models....... Garbage in, Garbage out.
    Global warming is happening on the earth's land surface, in the oceans, and in the atmosphere. A recent study reported in the journal, Nature, concluded that 98% of the earth's surface was
    hotter in the late 20th century than at any time during the last 2000 years. Global warming is certainly happening in the Arctic.

    I frequently hear that expression "garbage in, garbage out" in reference to computer models by people who don't understand science. Computer models are used all of the time in science and
    engineering. They always have to go through a validating process. How else can scientists understand something as complicated as the climate?

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    Quote Originally Posted by skepticalmike View Post
    Global warming is happening on the earth's land surface, in the oceans, and in the atmosphere...
    That's the point. It is not. It's only happening in computer models.

    In the real world, over the last couple of decades there's been a very slight cooling.
    Last edited by Tahuyaman; 08-25-2019 at 05:05 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by skepticalmike View Post
    Global warming is happening on the earth's land surface, in the oceans, and in the atmosphere. A recent study reported in the journal, Nature, concluded that 98% of the earth's surface was
    hotter in the late 20th century than at any time during the last 2000 years. Global warming is certainly happening in the Arctic.

    I frequently hear that expression "garbage in, garbage out" in reference to computer models by people who don't understand science. Computer models are used all of the time in science and
    engineering. They always have to go through a validating process. How else can scientists understand something as complicated as the climate?

    It's not the intent of the OP to deny climate change or man's part in it but to question the extreme predictions of climate models.

    To me the GIGO factor is the old statistical methods climatologists tend to use. Here's a good discussion of that from a couple of years ago: How Climate Forecasts Are Like Keynesian Models.
    Edmund Burke: "In vain you tell me that Artificial Government is good, but that I fall out only with the Abuse. The Thing! the Thing itself is the Abuse!"

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    72 degrees outside. 62 inside.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chris View Post
    It's not the intent of the OP to deny climate change or man's part in it but to question the extreme predictions of climate models.

    To me the GIGO factor is the old statistical methods climatologists tend to use. Here's a good discussion of that from a couple of years ago: How Climate Forecasts Are Like Keynesian Models.
    So is it reasonable to say that if our over population began to correct it's atmosphere decaying behavior, then we could restore good clean air and return the earth to its former stabilized temperatures.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jet57 View Post
    So is it reasonable to say that if our over population began to correct it's atmosphere decaying behavior, then we could restore good clean air and return the earth to its former stabilized temperatures.
    Each of us has a mental model we use to help us make sense of our world. Your mental model requires the elimination of many humans. If it is important to you why not begin by eliminating yourself, for the cause?
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    Quote Originally Posted by jet57 View Post
    So is it reasonable to say that if our over population began to correct it's atmosphere decaying behavior, then we could restore good clean air and return the earth to its former stabilized temperatures.
    Our current temps are stable.
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