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Thread: An overblown hypothesis: On hurricanes and climate change

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    Bo-4's Avatar Senior Member
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    The New Criterion went off the ledge with the rest of his lemmings for Trump and climate denial.
    https://thebaffler.com/latest/declin...criterion-ganz

    Hell, they're even inviting denials clowns like Mark Steyn to their conferences!
    https://www.newcriterion.com/blogs/m...on-inducer--95

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bo-4 View Post
    The New Criterion went off the ledge with the rest of his lemmings for Trump and climate denial.
    https://thebaffler.com/latest/declin...criterion-ganz

    Hell, they're even inviting denials clowns like Mark Steyn to their conferences!
    https://www.newcriterion.com/blogs/m...on-inducer--95
    I'm going to be reasonable about this. This planet is a constantly changing paradigm. Most of North America was under water at one time. That you cannot refute. If you believe in science, there was only one continent at one time. Climate change goes hand in hand with what the planet does. That's a fact.
    If you feel the need to refute that, then explain what happened to the Sarah Tropical rain Forests. Note: Man had nothing to do with it
    For waltky: http://quakes.globalincidentmap.com/
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bo-4 View Post
    The New Criterion went off the ledge with the rest of his lemmings for Trump and climate denial.
    https://thebaffler.com/latest/declin...criterion-ganz

    Hell, they're even inviting denials clowns like Mark Steyn to their conferences!
    https://www.newcriterion.com/blogs/m...on-inducer--95

    The thread's on hurricanes and climate change, not any willynilly topic you can start a new thread on.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chris View Post
    The thread's on hurricanes and climate change, not any willynilly topic you can start a new thread on.
    Simply pointing out FACTS with regard to your source. Fair game, sorry.

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    Quote Originally Posted by skepticalmike View Post
    Your article seems to engage in a straw man argument by claiming that "climate change theorists" assert that there will be an increase in frequency of Atlantic hurricanes making landfall in the U.S.

    That is not what I have read from the scientific community and that isn't a position of the most recent IPCC report. The claim made by the scientific community is that hurricanes will bring more rainfall,

    will often form faster, and will be somewhat stronger in the future. The probability of a major hurricane forming in the Atlantic and being more or less likely to strike the continental U.S. is something

    that I haven't read about and I assume it is unknown. I have read that the trajectory of Atlantic hurricanes is changing and moving slowly northward.

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...ill-get-worse/
    From Scientific American:


    Last week researchers published that data in Earth’s Future. The numbers indicate the amount of energy Harvey pulled from the ocean, in the form of rising water vapor, equaled the amount of energy it dropped over land in the form of rain—the first time such an equivalence has been documented. Investigators say this revelation supports assertions climate change is likely to make Atlantic hurricanes bigger, more intense and longer-lasting than in the past. The researchers calculate climate change caused Harvey’s rainfall to be 15 to 38 percent greater than it would have been otherwise.


    Warmer oceans mean more intense hurricanes. But you note that the number of large storms might actually decrease. Why?

    By pulling up an ocean’s heat, a hurricane leaves a colder ocean in its wake. One big storm creates more cooling than, say, four smaller storms. It leaves a cooler ocean that is less favorable for a new storm.

    That explains why Harvey got so big; your paper notes that the Gulf of Mexico water temperature was several degrees hotter than usual for late August. But why did Harvey stay big?Over the ocean a hurricane’s circulation typically reaches about 1,000 miles in all directions, grabbing moisture and bringing it into the storm. Once over land the storm dries and weakens. But even when two sides of Harvey were over land, the spiral arm bands reached well out over the Gulf, which was still very warm. That kept the storm going.

    After several days the storm moved back over the Gulf before it came inland again, and then moved north. We don’t attribute that movement to climate change. But the fact that when it did come back over the Gulf it reintensified is very much related to climate change. Despite the fact that Harvey had taken a lot of energy from the Gulf and cooled the waters in the upper 100 meters in particular, the deeper Gulf was still warm enough to well up and sustain hurricane-force winds.

    Your article seems to engage in a straw man argument by claiming that "climate change theorists" assert that there will be an increase in frequency of Atlantic hurricanes making landfall in the U.S.
    From the OP link:

    Climate change theorists assert that warming ocean temperatures are increasing the number and strength of hurricanes that form and make landfall in the United States. As David Leonhardt writes this week in the New York Times, “The frequency of severe hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean has roughly doubled over the last two decades, and climate change appears to be the reason.” He cites some statistics to support this conclusion, though his review of the facts is far from thorough.

    As he notes, the underlying science holds that hurricanes develop in warm ocean waters in late summer, so that over time rising ocean temperatures will generate rising numbers of hurricanes, and stronger ones as well. According to scientists, average ocean temperatures have increased by about one degree Fahrenheit over the past one hundred to a hundred and fifty years, a finding that provides a foundation for the “hurricane hypothesis.” Thus, we hear the refrain that global warming is causing more storms with higher wind speeds, and that these storms last longer, are more destructive, and make landfall more often than in the past.
    It's not a straw man.

    From your link:

    Two common measures used to judge whether hurricanes are becoming worse are the number of storms per year and the strength of each storm. Based on the total number of named storms, there has been an increase since the start of the 20th century.
    Strawman? I think the strawman is all yours.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bo-4 View Post
    Simply pointing out FACTS with regard to your source. Fair game, sorry.


    Ad hom is also off-topic. Either address the topic or go post somewhere else.
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    Quote Originally Posted by skepticalmike View Post
    Read the article in the Guardian. Hurricanes are getting stronger and lasting longer. They are also growing in strength faster than before.


    https://www.theguardian.com/weather/ng-interactive/2018/sep/11/atlantic-hurricanes-are-storms-getting-worse
    That simply isn't true at all. If anything the frequency of hurricanes has slowed and they are seldom very strong.

    https://www.google.com/amp/weatherpl...just-luck/amp/

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    Quote Originally Posted by EvilCat Breath View Post
    That simply isn't true at all. If anything the frequency of hurricanes has slowed and they are seldom very strong.

    https://www.google.com/amp/weatherpl...just-luck/amp/

    My statement is true and it is about all hurricanes and not just those that make landfall. Your article states," and that it’s just been random luck that there’s been no major hurricane landfalls since 2005.".

    The frequency of hurricanes forming in the Atlantic has not decreased and the occurrence of category 4 and 5 hurricanes has increased.

    Everything below is from realclimate.org "Does Global warming Make Tropical Cyclones Stronger"

    A significant global increase (95% significance level) can be found in all storms with maximum wind speeds from 175 km/h. Storms of 200 km/h and more have doubled in number, and those of 250 km/h and more have tripled. Although some of the trend may be owing to improved observation techniques, this provides some evidence that a global increase in the most intense tropical storms due to global warming is not just predicted by models but already happening




    Fig. 2 Percentage increase 1980 to 2016 (as a linear trend) in the number of tropical storms worldwide depending on their strength. Only 95% significant trends are shown. The strongest storms are also increasing the most. Red colors show the hurricane category on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Graph by Kerry Emanuel, MIT. Creative Commons License CC BY-SA 3.0


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    The following is from realclimate.org, "Does global warming make tropical cyclones stronger?". The article discusses not just N. Atlantic hurricanes but hurricanes on a global scale.


    studies can be summarized briefly as follows: due to global warming we do not necessarily expect more tropical storms overall, but an increasing number of particularly strong storms in categories 4 and 5, especially storms of previously unobserved strength. This assessment has been widely agreed on at least since the 4th IPCC Report of 2007 and reaffirmed several times since then. A review article in the leading journal Science (Sobel et al. 2016) concluded:
    We thus expect tropical cyclone intensities to increase with warming, both on average and at the high end of the scale, so that the strongest future storms will exceed the strength of any in the past.
    http://www.realclimate.org/index.php...ones-stronger/

    Nevertheless, observational data support the expectation from models that the strongest storms are getting stronger. We focus here on the period from 1979, because this is the period covered by geostationary satellite data (thus no cyclones went unobserved) and also the period over which three quarters of global warming has occurred. These data show an increase in the strongest tropical storms in most ocean basins (Kossin et al. 2013).

    One consequence of this increase is that in most major tropical cyclone regions, the storms with the highest wind speeds on record have been observed in recent years (see Fig. 1 based on reanalysis by Velden et al. 2017). The strongest globally was Patricia (2015), which topped the previous record holder Haiyan (2013)






    Fig. 1 The strongest storms for the major storm regions Western and Eastern North Pacific, North Indian, South Indian and South Pacific, Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico and open North Atlantic. Of these seven regions, five had the strongest storm on record in the past five years, which would be extremely unlikely just by chance. Irma was added by personal communication from Chris Velden, and a tie of two storms with equally strong winds in the South Indian was resolved by selecting the storm with the lower central pressure (Fantala). (Graph by Stefan Rahmstorf, background image from Robert Rohde, Creative Commons License CC BY-SA 3.0.)

    Other recent records are worth mentioning. Sandy (2012) was the largest hurricane ever observed in the Atlantic. Harvey (2017) dumped more rain than any hurricane in the United States. Ophelia (2017) formed further northeast than any other Category 3 Atlantic hurricane – fortunately it turned north before striking Portugal, against initial predictions, and then weakened over cool waters before it hit Ireland. September 2017 broke the record for cumulative hurricane energy in the Atlantic. Irma (2017) sustained wind speeds of 300 km/h longer than any storm on record (for 37 hours – the previous record was 24 hours by Haiyan in 2013). Cyclone Pam in March 2015 was already beaten again by Winston in February 2016 according to the Southwest Pacific Enhanced Archive for Tropical Cyclones (though not in Velden’s data analysis). Donna in 2017 was the strongest May cyclone ever observed in the Southern Hemisphere. All coincidence?
    Last edited by skepticalmike; 09-08-2019 at 01:25 PM.

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    What are the Warmists going to do when people don't vote for their policies?
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