User Tag List

+ Reply to Thread
Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 29

Thread: The Global Fertility Crash

  1. #1
    Points: 665,289, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 85.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialRecommendation Second ClassYour first GroupOverdrive50000 Experience PointsTagger First ClassVeteran
    Awards:
    Discussion Ender
    Chris's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    433316
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Posts
    197,553
    Points
    665,289
    Level
    100
    Thanks Given
    31,984
    Thanked 80,905x in 54,720 Posts
    Mentioned
    2011 Post(s)
    Tagged
    2 Thread(s)

    The Global Fertility Crash

    The problem with crashing fertility rates is related to Say's Law[.


    (interactive graph at link)



    At least two children per woman—that’s what’s needed to ensure a stable population from generation to generation. In the 1960s, the fertility rate was five live births per woman. By 2017 it had fallen to 2.43, close to that critical threshold.

    Population growth is vital for the world economy. It means more workers to build homes and produce goods, more consumers to buy things and spark innovation, and more citizens to pay taxes and attract trade. While the world is expected to add more than 3 billion people by 2100, according to the United Nations, that’ll likely be the high point. Falling fertility rates and aging populations will mean serious challenges that will be felt more acutely in some places than others.

    While the global average fertility rate was still above the rate of replacement—technically 2.1 children per woman—in 2017, about half of all countries had already fallen below it, up from 1 in 20 just half a century ago....
    Tradition is not the worship of ashes, but the preservation of fire. ― Gustav Mahler

  2. #2
    Points: 41,437, Level: 49
    Level completed: 76%, Points required for next Level: 413
    Overall activity: 0.2%
    Achievements:
    Recommendation Second ClassSocial25000 Experience PointsVeteran
    Lummy's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    6307
    Join Date
    Apr 2018
    Posts
    12,618
    Points
    41,437
    Level
    49
    Thanks Given
    4,948
    Thanked 6,307x in 4,359 Posts
    Mentioned
    60 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Don't you want to be here after the crash, Chris, when there's only a few people left?

    Maybe it's cyclical? Maybe it happens every few hundred thousand years or whatever, then starts all over again?

  3. #3
    Points: 264,380, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 83.0%
    Achievements:
    50000 Experience PointsSocialVeteranTagger First ClassOverdrive
    Awards:
    Activity Award
    MisterVeritis's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    307876
    Join Date
    Oct 2014
    Location
    Northern Alabama
    Posts
    104,545
    Points
    264,380
    Level
    100
    Thanks Given
    94,661
    Thanked 39,250x in 27,871 Posts
    Mentioned
    385 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Quote Originally Posted by Chris View Post
    The problem with crashing fertility rates is related to Say's Law[.


    (interactive graph at link)
    As government control and taxes grow fewer people will have children. I recall reading about a similar phenomena during the last 50 years or so of the Roman Republic. I don't know if it is true or proven.

    I did find this:

    After the plagues of the 160's to 170's AD, and the wars of Marcus Aurelius, the population of the empire fell from its previous high, likely down to about 40 million in total. By the beginning of the 4th century, and the reign of Constantine, civil wars and foreign incursions had taken their toll.

    https://www.unrv.com/empire/roman-population.php
    Last edited by MisterVeritis; 10-31-2019 at 06:44 PM.
    Call your state legislators and insist they approve the Article V convention of States to propose amendments.


    I pledge allegiance to the Constitution as written and understood by this nation's founders, and to the Republic it created, an indivisible union of sovereign States, with liberty and justice for all.

  4. #4
    Points: 34,178, Level: 45
    Level completed: 16%, Points required for next Level: 1,272
    Overall activity: 0.1%
    Achievements:
    50000 Experience PointsVeteranYour first Group
    jimmyz's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    176619
    Join Date
    Jul 2014
    Posts
    11,597
    Points
    34,178
    Level
    45
    Thanks Given
    0
    Thanked 6,315x in 4,381 Posts
    Mentioned
    84 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    I'll take a fertility crash over the old-school population control of plague, famine and war any day.
    " I'm old-fashioned. I like two sexes! And another thing, all of a sudden I don't like being married to what is known as a 'new woman'. I want a wife, not a competitor. Competitor! Competitor!" - Spencer Tracy in 'Adam's Rib' (1949)

    Art thou every retard among us related to thine uncle or mistress by way of moral or illegitimate rendezvous? Thus, we are one side of the other's coin by luck or pluck. - Jimmyz

  5. The Following User Says Thank You to jimmyz For This Useful Post:

    The Sage of Main Street (10-31-2019)

  6. #5
    Points: 173,946, Level: 99
    Level completed: 8%, Points required for next Level: 3,704
    Overall activity: 0.1%
    Achievements:
    Social50000 Experience PointsOverdriveRecommendation Second ClassVeteran
    Bo-4's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    295339
    Join Date
    Oct 2014
    Location
    N Oregon Coast
    Posts
    36,763
    Points
    173,946
    Level
    99
    Thanks Given
    11,535
    Thanked 10,310x in 8,305 Posts
    Mentioned
    669 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Maybe White people need to have more babies Chris - Derp?


  7. #6
    Points: 34,178, Level: 45
    Level completed: 16%, Points required for next Level: 1,272
    Overall activity: 0.1%
    Achievements:
    50000 Experience PointsVeteranYour first Group
    jimmyz's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    176619
    Join Date
    Jul 2014
    Posts
    11,597
    Points
    34,178
    Level
    45
    Thanks Given
    0
    Thanked 6,315x in 4,381 Posts
    Mentioned
    84 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Quote Originally Posted by Bo-4 View Post
    Maybe White people need to have more babies Chris - Derp?

    You take an interesting OP thread and apply your rank stink to it. You are less provocateur and more of a nuisance to discussion. Don't you have some nail polish to apply or a drag queen outfit to get into for your Halloween depravity?
    " I'm old-fashioned. I like two sexes! And another thing, all of a sudden I don't like being married to what is known as a 'new woman'. I want a wife, not a competitor. Competitor! Competitor!" - Spencer Tracy in 'Adam's Rib' (1949)

    Art thou every retard among us related to thine uncle or mistress by way of moral or illegitimate rendezvous? Thus, we are one side of the other's coin by luck or pluck. - Jimmyz

  8. #7
    Points: 665,289, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 85.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialRecommendation Second ClassYour first GroupOverdrive50000 Experience PointsTagger First ClassVeteran
    Awards:
    Discussion Ender
    Chris's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    433316
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Posts
    197,553
    Points
    665,289
    Level
    100
    Thanks Given
    31,984
    Thanked 80,905x in 54,720 Posts
    Mentioned
    2011 Post(s)
    Tagged
    2 Thread(s)
    Quote Originally Posted by Lummy View Post
    Don't you want to be here after the crash, Chris, when there's only a few people left?

    Maybe it's cyclical? Maybe it happens every few hundred thousand years or whatever, then starts all over again?
    I'm too old for it to matter.
    Tradition is not the worship of ashes, but the preservation of fire. ― Gustav Mahler

  9. #8
    Points: 173,946, Level: 99
    Level completed: 8%, Points required for next Level: 3,704
    Overall activity: 0.1%
    Achievements:
    Social50000 Experience PointsOverdriveRecommendation Second ClassVeteran
    Bo-4's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    295339
    Join Date
    Oct 2014
    Location
    N Oregon Coast
    Posts
    36,763
    Points
    173,946
    Level
    99
    Thanks Given
    11,535
    Thanked 10,310x in 8,305 Posts
    Mentioned
    669 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Quote Originally Posted by jimmyz View Post
    You take an interesting OP thread and apply your rank stink to it. You are less provocateur and more of a nuisance to discussion. Don't you have some nail polish to apply or a drag queen outfit to get into for your Halloween depravity?
    Funny you should mention it ... I'm going as Rudy in DRAG!!!


  10. #9
    Points: 173,946, Level: 99
    Level completed: 8%, Points required for next Level: 3,704
    Overall activity: 0.1%
    Achievements:
    Social50000 Experience PointsOverdriveRecommendation Second ClassVeteran
    Bo-4's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    295339
    Join Date
    Oct 2014
    Location
    N Oregon Coast
    Posts
    36,763
    Points
    173,946
    Level
    99
    Thanks Given
    11,535
    Thanked 10,310x in 8,305 Posts
    Mentioned
    669 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Quote Originally Posted by Chris View Post
    I'm too old for it to matter.
    Heart of the matter right here ^ May we assume that you have no kids or grandkids that you don't give a holy F about either?

  11. #10
    Points: 665,289, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 85.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialRecommendation Second ClassYour first GroupOverdrive50000 Experience PointsTagger First ClassVeteran
    Awards:
    Discussion Ender
    Chris's Avatar Senior Member
    Karma
    433316
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Posts
    197,553
    Points
    665,289
    Level
    100
    Thanks Given
    31,984
    Thanked 80,905x in 54,720 Posts
    Mentioned
    2011 Post(s)
    Tagged
    2 Thread(s)
    Quote Originally Posted by jimmyz View Post
    I'll take a fertility crash over the old-school population control of plague, famine and war any day.
    Decline because of riches is easier
    Tradition is not the worship of ashes, but the preservation of fire. ― Gustav Mahler

+ Reply to Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts