Awards:
Senior Member
Actually if you look at ROI on the Obama investment of QE, bailouts and Stimulus then his GDP growth would take about 45 years to recoup the investment to the taxpayers without interest payments.
Of course that wil never happen because we will be in continuous deficit spending unless we wipe out 25% of all Federal expenditures.
Reagan let it run its course and took a year and a half of pain and then we boomed for decades.
Last edited by carolina73; 11-11-2019 at 05:47 PM.
MMC (11-12-2019),The Sage of Main Street (11-12-2019)
Awards:
Senior Member
Actually no. What I am saying is that Trump cannot claim credit for the economic trends started long before he came on the scene.Originally Posted by carolina73
You have seen the data that I offered in my original post. Can you honestly say that unemployment and stock markets were not already headed to where they are now? Can you say that Trumps GDP growth is the "best in the history of America?"
Trump inherited these economic indicators from previous times and took credit for it. Much like he inherited hundreds of millions from his dad -- and took credit for that too.
Obama's jobs were not worth a damn. Manufacturing creates middle class jobs not McDonalds. That is why the middle class shrunk under Obama and there was no wage growth.
wages.1550084365488.jpg
This chart shows real wage growth, which is not the wage growth you will hear about on the news. It's a better way to gauge things. For those who don't know, real wage growth (RWG) is growth that has been adjusted to account for the effect that inflation has on your paycheck. If RWG is 0% then wages are just treading water. So even if your paycheck has increased from $1000/week to $1050/week you are really still just getting $1000/week.
From the graph you can see Obama's wage growth numbers peaked at near 5% coming off the recession and cratered to -2% in late 2011. Since then it has climbed up to a fairly sustained high of about 2.4% over 2015. Trump takes control at 1.7% and within a year it drops to just below 0% and bounces back to 1.7% over the second half of 2018.
Look, RWG has been a rough and crazy ride to be sure. But nothing we see in wage growth can back up the infuriating conservative media narrative that Trump is some kind of economic messiah. Again, I am not saying Obama was either. I am saying that, at best, Trump is just along for the ride.
People over 50 could not longer get jobs because of threats of age discrimination law suits. So many of them had to just retire under Obama and use up all their savings until they could get on Medicare and SS.
This assertion is hard to verify. Is this your own experience as an employer? Or do you have national data?
Where are those Green Jobs from Obama? With his shovel ready jobs? Or with his jobs saved from Stimulus? Or did you like his unneeded government jobs and fake disability growth to lower unemployment more?
To be honest I am not familiar with the shovel ready jobs reference or the fake disability growth . Since we're talking about the nation as whole maybe we should stick to the macro economic perspective and just look at the stats.
If you look at BLS employment (16+ non-Ag) numbers instead of unemployment then they tell the story more accurately.
I took the trouble to find you my data. Maybe you could do the same in this case
As an employer, I now cannot get laborers even after raising the starting pay 15%. We sure wish the wall was built so we could bring in South American laborers legally and have them pay a flat tax, and with health care.
Not sure why we couldn't have a work treaty to allow that without a wall.
Last edited by TheLiquidGuy; 11-11-2019 at 05:57 PM.
Bo-4 (11-12-2019),Just AnotherPerson (11-12-2019)
Awards:
Senior Member
The trends accelerated due to cuts in tax rates and regulatory reforms.
Awards:
Senior Member
Cutting corporate taxes leads to stock buy backs and huge deficit. Thanks to Trumps tax cuts, the debt climbed an extra $1.1 trillion that it didn't have to in 2018 and he is looking for excuses not to discuss infrastructure with Nancy because there is no longer the funds for it.
As I recall he claimed something ridiculous like "I would love to do infrastructure. It's what I do. But how can I that while I am being investigated?" He can't do infrastructure while he is being investigated? He is probably the most delicate snowflake of a president we have ever seen. Nixon and Clinton were both very productive while they were being investigated and impeached. But this snowflake plays more golf than the last 6 presidents combined, and starts throwing around tariffs like confetti. But he doesn't have the ability to take care of the most basic administrative functions? No. he most certainly could do infrastructure, but he gave away the money to the uber rich, and he doesn't want to admit it.
Last edited by TheLiquidGuy; 11-11-2019 at 06:14 PM.
Just AnotherPerson (11-12-2019)
Awards:
Senior Member
Cuts in tax rates nearly always result in revenue increases due to a stimulated economy. In fact I can't recall one time where that wasn't the case.
Debt is caused by overspending. In other words, debt is cause by increasing spending at a rate greater than the revenue increases.
Awards:
Senior Member
jobs are returning: TRUE
new jobs are being created: TRUE
wages are rising: SORT OF TRUE (take a look at my post in this thread concerning "real wage growth")
Stocks are hitting all time highs: TRUE
Most of what you said is true, but they were also true BEFORE Trump arrived on the scene. That's why I presented the graphs showing this. Trump is not creating a better world. He is just not screwing it up (yet).
Job I haven't shown any data on specific job creation so here's a chart I just found
jobs added.jpg
When trump came in there is no marked difference in jobs added per quarter.
If Democrats plan on running against the condition of the economy, they'll look foolish
You are kinda right. Because the economy is good. Republicans will milk that notion for all it's worth. But I maintain, based on all the data I have presented here, that Trump did not really do anything special to cause this. He just takes credit for it without any empirical way to justify it. In otherwords, this was all gonna happen with or without Trump. The data bears that out.
Bo-4 (11-12-2019),Just AnotherPerson (11-12-2019)
Awards:
Senior Member
During the Obama era wages were flat. The jobs created were low skilled jobs which only supplemented a primary income. Millions of people just tuned out of the jobs market. Those people are now returning because they can.
Senior Member
Without commenting on how many thousands of employees and contractors Trump has stiffed, the claim is true. Trumps taking credit for Obama’s work.
https://apnews.com/3e265c4138d04e22886e6e1818789734
and the days of our economy being based on oil and energy are in the past. Look for computer technology, AI, and green energy to dominate.
How crazy alt righties got pwnd by a conervative web site:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/berlins.../#3b7ecb78e9b5
il·lib·er·ali(l)ˈlib(ə)rəladjective1.opposed to liberal principles; restricting freedom of thought or behavior
"illiberal and anti-democratic policies
synonyms: intolerant, narrow-minded, unenlightened, conservative, reactionary;
Just AnotherPerson (11-12-2019)
Awards:
Senior Member
And again, Obama prolonged the recovery, that was the easy 80%, the hard part is the 20%. Pareto Rule.
Let me clarofy, though, I do not atribute anything ecoonomically positive to any President. Never made sense to me that any President can lay claim to being responsible for that, for negatives, yes, positives, no.
Tradition is not the worship of ashes, but the preservation of fire. ― Gustav Mahler
Awards:
Senior Member
Hmmm. The media giving Obama credit for our current economic conditions. Gee who would have guessed that would happen?
Does that mean that the Democrats running for President can’t use a stale economy as a campaign issue?
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote