I've seen a ton of people agonizing over how to beat the Patriots in the playoffs this year, and wondering if they'll just default their way into the Super Bowl again. These concerns are based on the Patriots' history of domination, but the facts of this season tell a different story.
Yes, the Patriots are 10-2 after starting the season 8-0. Yes, they are the number 2 seed in the AFC after losing a tie-breaker with the Ravens. But that is exactly the problem. The Patriots might have the easiest schedule in the entire NFL this season, and they've tended to show their true colors every time they play tough teams.
In 12 games this season, the Patriots have only played three top tier teams. They went 1-2 in those games. They lost to the Ravens by 17 points, and to the Texans by 6 points. They beat the Bills, but barely, limping to a 6 point victory back in week 4. After the top tier, the Pats played 4 mid-tier teams, and won all 4. But two of those four wins were close ones. They beat the Browns by 14, the Steelers by 30...and beat the Eagles by 6 and the Cowboys by 4. The PATRIOTS beat the COWBOYS by only 4 points, 13-9. AT HOME. Let's take a look at their star player's stats for those games:
Tom Brady:
Week 4, 2019, v. Bills: 18/39, 46.15% comp., 150 yards, 0 TDs and 1 INT, 45.9 QBR
Week 8, 2019, v. Browns: 20/36, 55.56% comp., 259 yards, 2 TDs and 0 INTs, 96.9 QBR
Week 9, 2019, v. Ravens: 30/46, 65.22% comp., 285 yards, 2 TDs and 2 INTs, 80.4 QBR
Week 11, 2019, v. Eagles: 26/47, 55.32% comp., 216 yards, 0 TDs 0 INTs, 67.3 QBR
Week 12, 2019, v. Cowboys: 17/37, 45.95% comp., 190 yards, 1 TD 0 INTs, 70.8 QBR
Week 13, 2019, v. Texans: 24/47, 51.06% comp., 326 yards, 3 TDs 1 INT, 85.9 QBR
Overall, every week: 297/486, 61.1% comp., 3,268 yards, 18 TDs to 6 INTs, 88.2 QBR
Legend: = Good, = Meh, = Bad
Looking at those stats, it definitely looks like Brady and the Pats as a whole are finally beginning their inevitable decline. They could just as easily be 6-7 as 10-2, if they had a tougher schedule. If I were a team in the playoffs, I think this would be the first year I didn't really find the prospect of playing them at home with a first-round bye as all that scary at all. They could even still lose that first round bye and home field advantage if they finish the last four games of the season 2-2 as I suspect they will, losing to the Chiefs and Bills and beating the Bungles and Minnows (Dolphins).
No, the Patriots are easily the weakest playoff team in the NFL right now. Oh, how the mighty have fallen.