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Thread: The NE Patriots: The NFL's Weakest Playoff Team

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    The NE Patriots: The NFL's Weakest Playoff Team

    I've seen a ton of people agonizing over how to beat the Patriots in the playoffs this year, and wondering if they'll just default their way into the Super Bowl again. These concerns are based on the Patriots' history of domination, but the facts of this season tell a different story.

    Yes, the Patriots are 10-2 after starting the season 8-0. Yes, they are the number 2 seed in the AFC after losing a tie-breaker with the Ravens. But that is exactly the problem. The Patriots might have the easiest schedule in the entire NFL this season, and they've tended to show their true colors every time they play tough teams.

    In 12 games this season, the Patriots have only played three top tier teams. They went 1-2 in those games. They lost to the Ravens by 17 points, and to the Texans by 6 points. They beat the Bills, but barely, limping to a 6 point victory back in week 4. After the top tier, the Pats played 4 mid-tier teams, and won all 4. But two of those four wins were close ones. They beat the Browns by 14, the Steelers by 30...and beat the Eagles by 6 and the Cowboys by 4. The PATRIOTS beat the COWBOYS by only 4 points, 13-9. AT HOME. Let's take a look at their star player's stats for those games:

    Tom Brady:

    Week 4, 2019, v. Bills: 18/39, 46.15% comp., 150 yards, 0 TDs and 1 INT, 45.9 QBR

    Week 8, 2019, v. Browns: 20/36, 55.56% comp., 259 yards, 2 TDs and 0 INTs, 96.9 QBR

    Week 9, 2019, v. Ravens: 30/46, 65.22% comp., 285 yards, 2 TDs and 2 INTs, 80.4 QBR

    Week 11, 2019, v. Eagles: 26/47, 55.32% comp., 216 yards, 0 TDs 0 INTs, 67.3 QBR

    Week 12, 2019, v. Cowboys: 17/37, 45.95% comp., 190 yards, 1 TD 0 INTs, 70.8 QBR

    Week 13, 2019, v. Texans: 24/47, 51.06% comp., 326 yards, 3 TDs 1 INT, 85.9 QBR

    Overall, every week: 297/486, 61.1% comp., 3,268 yards, 18 TDs to 6 INTs, 88.2 QBR

    Legend: = Good, = Meh, = Bad

    Looking at those stats, it definitely looks like Brady and the Pats as a whole are finally beginning their inevitable decline. They could just as easily be 6-7 as 10-2, if they had a tougher schedule. If I were a team in the playoffs, I think this would be the first year I didn't really find the prospect of playing them at home with a first-round bye as all that scary at all. They could even still lose that first round bye and home field advantage if they finish the last four games of the season 2-2 as I suspect they will, losing to the Chiefs and Bills and beating the Bungles and Minnows (Dolphins).

    No, the Patriots are easily the weakest playoff team in the NFL right now. Oh, how the mighty have fallen.
    "Those who produce should have, but we know that those who produce the most — that is, those who work hardest, and at the most difficult and most menial tasks, have the least."
    - Eugene V. Debs (1855-1926), five-time Socialist Party candidate for U.S. President

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    The Patriots right now kind of remind me of the 49ers -- excellent defense, mediocre offense.

    I think the Ravens will probably win the AFC, but the NFC is harder to predict. The 49ers could pull it off, but the Seahawks seem to be gaining momentum.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rationalist View Post
    The Patriots right now kind of remind me of the 49ers -- excellent defense, mediocre offense.

    I think the Ravens will probably win the AFC, but the NFC is harder to predict. The 49ers could pull it off, but the Seahawks seem to be gaining momentum.
    Their offense isn't explosive but I wouldn't call it mediocre either, they are second in the NFL in points per game, sixth in yards, second in rushing yards, and 16th in passing yards. Contrast that with the Seahawks, their defense is ranked in the 20s for everything except against the run, where they are eighth. I think another meetup between the two will go for the Niners, assuming they meet up at all again in the playoffs.

    I do agree though that the NFC is wide open. All of the top teams - Saints, Niners, Seahawks, Packers, Vikings - are serious contenders with solid chances at making it to the Super Bowl. For the AFC, it's more muddled: The Patriots will be one-and-done most likely, I think the only serious contenders are the Texans, Ravens, Chiefs, Bills, and Titans (since making the switch to Tannehill). And of those, I think it'll come down to the Ravens and either the Chiefs or the Texans in the AFC Championship, where I think the Ravens will probably come out ahead.

    If I put money on it, I'd call the Super Bowl at either Ravens v. Niners or Ravens v. Saints.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Green Arrow View Post
    Their offense isn't explosive but I wouldn't call it mediocre either, they are second in the NFL in points per game, sixth in yards, second in rushing yards, and 16th in passing yards. Contrast that with the Seahawks, their defense is ranked in the 20s for everything except against the run, where they are eighth. I think another meetup between the two will go for the Niners, assuming they meet up at all again in the playoffs.

    I do agree though that the NFC is wide open. All of the top teams - Saints, Niners, Seahawks, Packers, Vikings - are serious contenders with solid chances at making it to the Super Bowl. For the AFC, it's more muddled: The Patriots will be one-and-done most likely, I think the only serious contenders are the Texans, Ravens, Chiefs, Bills, and Titans (since making the switch to Tannehill). And of those, I think it'll come down to the Ravens and either the Chiefs or the Texans in the AFC Championship, where I think the Ravens will probably come out ahead.

    If I put money on it, I'd call the Super Bowl at either Ravens v. Niners or Ravens v. Saints.
    The Saints are still good, but Brees has declined a bit as well. They do have a tendency to build momentum during the playoffs though.

    As a side note, watching Tannehill become a better quarterback has been interesting. It appears that the offensive schemes of Miami really were holding him back. I guess Mariota will be a backup from now on.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rationalist View Post
    The Saints are still good, but Brees has declined a bit as well. They do have a tendency to build momentum during the playoffs though.

    As a side note, watching Tannehill become a better quarterback has been interesting. It appears that the offensive schemes of Miami really were holding him back. I guess Mariota will be a backup from now on.
    I think MM8 will test the market, if it looks like a backup role is the only interest he gets, I think he'll stick with the Titans and back Tannehill up, he doesn't really have the personality to make a big show out of all of it. But there are some intriguing scenarios where he ends up starting again for other teams and showing the promise he displayed in the 2016 season and in college.
    "Those who produce should have, but we know that those who produce the most — that is, those who work hardest, and at the most difficult and most menial tasks, have the least."
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    Quote Originally Posted by Green Arrow View Post
    I think MM8 will test the market, if it looks like a backup role is the only interest he gets, I think he'll stick with the Titans and back Tannehill up, he doesn't really have the personality to make a big show out of all of it. But there are some intriguing scenarios where he ends up starting again for other teams and showing the promise he displayed in the 2016 season and in college.
    Within that same draft class, I get the impression Jameis Winston's starting days are numbered.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rationalist View Post
    Within that same draft class, I get the impression Jameis Winston's starting days are numbered.
    Yeah, when ol' BA came to Tampa he did it because he wanted to try to turn Winston around. Winston's clearly beyond even his ability to turn around. I could actually see BA being interested in MM8 (which would be really ironic, lol). Also had the Chargers and Bears as potential landing spots, but since the Chargers fired Whisenhunt I took them off the list.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Green Arrow View Post
    Yeah, when ol' BA came to Tampa he did it because he wanted to try to turn Winston around. Winston's clearly beyond even his ability to turn around. I could actually see BA being interested in MM8 (which would be really ironic, lol). Also had the Chargers and Bears as potential landing spots, but since the Chargers fired Whisenhunt I took them off the list.
    What would be really weird is if the Panthers trade Cam Newton to Tampa. I don't think they would, but Arians might be interested in him. Newton does have more potential than Winston.

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    Usually the Patriots have a brief period of struggling. Only a fool would count them out at this point.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rationalist View Post
    What would be really weird is if the Panthers trade Cam Newton to Tampa. I don't think they would, but Arians might be interested in him. Newton does have more potential than Winston.
    He does have more potential than Winston, but I also think his struggles are more mental than anything else. Losing the Super Bowl in 2015 really $#@!ed him up.
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