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Thread: Climate Models Are Running Red Hot, and Scientists Donít Know Why

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    stjames1_53's Avatar Senior Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chris View Post
    I wouldn't say failing but as is the very nature of modern science, which operates under falsifiability, "The models are always changing and probably will continue to change in the future because the science is so complex."
    What is complex is how and when the planet does its thing. The rest is "guessing".......They all exclude celestial mechanics.
    Consider where we are in the galaxy, how our neighboring systems affect us here in this wee ball of dirt. Even if you exclude the sun's affects, we are still subject to electromagnetic solar storms and proximity to other forces created throughout the rest of our galaxy.
    That, by its very nature, makes "predictions" unreliable.
    For waltky: http://quakes.globalincidentmap.com/
    "The Nation that makes a great distinction between its scholars and its warriors will have its thinking done by cowards and its fighting done by fools."
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    Quote Originally Posted by stjames1_53 View Post
    What is complex is how and when the planet does its thing. The rest is "guessing".......They all exclude celestial mechanics.
    Consider where we are in the galaxy, how our neighboring systems affect us here in this wee ball of dirt. Even if you exclude the sun's affects, we are still subject to electromagnetic solar storms and proximity to other forces created throughout the rest of our galaxy.
    That, by its very nature, makes "predictions" unreliable.
    Right, as Judith Curry says, it's a wicked problem.

    "A wicked problem is a social or cultural problem that is difficult or impossible to solve for as many as four reasons: incomplete or contradictory knowledge, the number of people and opinions involved, the large economic burden, and the interconnected nature of these problems with other problems." https://www.wickedproblems.com/1_wicked_problems.php
    Edmund Burke: "In vain you tell me that Artificial Government is good, but that I fall out only with the Abuse. The Thing! the Thing itself is the Abuse!"

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    Quote Originally Posted by Peter1469 View Post
    One issue is that today we are measuring a lot of temperature from airports which are big heat islands since they are large areas of concrete.
    The key temperatures are the lower troposphere where warming is supposed to show first. They are even cooler than the models which highlights what you outline.
    I was going to sell my guns to the government but you wouldnít believe what came up during the background check

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    Quote Originally Posted by stjames1_53 View Post
    What is complex is how and when the planet does its thing. The rest is "guessing".......They all exclude celestial mechanics.
    Consider where we are in the galaxy, how our neighboring systems affect us here in this wee ball of dirt. Even if you exclude the sun's affects, we are still subject to electromagnetic solar storms and proximity to other forces created throughout the rest of our galaxy.
    That, by its very nature, makes "predictions" unreliable.
    Climate scientists are much smarter than you think they are. They don't exclude Milankovitch cycles which includes 3 types of orbital variations. Where we are in the galaxy isn't relevant. They

    do include variations in solar flux and EM solar storms have no significant effect on the earth's climate.


    See https://www.climate.gov/news-feature...at-waves-earth


    Although solar flares, and associated coronal mass ejections, can bombard Earth’s outermost atmosphere with tremendous amounts of energy, most of that energy is reflected back into space by the Earth’s magnetic field. Because the energy does not reach our planet’s surface, it has no measurable influence on surface temperature

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    Quote Originally Posted by skepticalmike View Post
    Climate scientists are much smarter than you think they are. They don't exclude Milankovitch cycles which includes 3 types of orbital variations. Where we are in the galaxy isn't relevant. They

    do include variations in solar flux and EM solar storms have no significant effect on the earth's climate.


    See https://www.climate.gov/news-feature...at-waves-earth


    Although solar flares, and associated coronal mass ejections, can bombard Earthís outermost atmosphere with tremendous amounts of energy, most of that energy is reflected back into space by the Earthís magnetic field. Because the energy does not reach our planetís surface, it has no measurable influence on surface temperature
    you're looking at the small picture. View it as a galactic picture.
    How many solar systems are in this galaxy? How close to they have to come near us to cause all kinds of interference?
    Bud, those self-proclaimed experts don't have a clue. They only know to hold their hands out at grant time.
    But even at that, we are really haven't that much affect on this planet as much as celestial mechanics are enjoying.
    You still drive your car, take public transportation, buy your foods at the store, enjoy watching TV?
    Now if we take your tact, wake up tomorrow and try to start your day without any of those necessities. Tell us how it works out.
    Now tell us that you are willing to work for an agency that declares most if not all of your weekly paycheck is theirs.
    If you have no money to live on, I guess you're gonna die just like everyone else that supported this line of BS.
    The earth is not going to die from us. Get a grip, man.
    For waltky: http://quakes.globalincidentmap.com/
    "The Nation that makes a great distinction between its scholars and its warriors will have its thinking done by cowards and its fighting done by fools."
    - Thucydides

    "Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote" B. Franklin
    Igitur qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum

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    Climate Change Predictions Have Suddenly Gone Catastrophic. This Is Why

    ...Mark Zelinka, the first author of the study, said in an email that the only dramatic change between the two generations of models was how climate warming due to cloud cover had been incorporated. He explained that clouds reflect some sunlight that hits them, and as the planet warms from CO2 emissions, cloud cover will decrease. This in turn causes a positive feedback loop and further warms the climate.

    Ceppi added that clouds also have their own greenhouse effects and can act as a blanket in the same way as greenhouse gases. The strength of this property depends on how high a cloud is, adding another layer of complexity that has only recently been incorporated into models.

    Just because clouds are being modeled more realistically does not make the model as a whole better, though. In a preprint under review for the journal Earth System Dynamics, researchers at the University of Exeter looked at whether high estimates of climate sensitivity made sense in the context of historical observations.

    First author Femke Nijsse said she was spurred to look into sensitivity because the last IPCC report considered a likely range to be lower than what several new models have predicted.

    “We were quite surprised that this new generation of models showed quite a few models with a very high sensitivity,” she said.

    Nijsse and her team found that at least six current models were inconsistent with historical climate data, likely because of the new cloud modelling.

    Ceppi agreed that some of the models predicting a higher sensitivity than before may be unrealistic; this presents a “bit of tension,” since these new models were designed to better represent the climate processes that occur in clouds.

    “On the one hand, they should be better, but on the other hand, at least some of these models seem to produce sensitivities that are too high compared with observed temperature changes,” he said. “That's a bit of a puzzle there, that's something we need to resolve.”
    Edmund Burke: "In vain you tell me that Artificial Government is good, but that I fall out only with the Abuse. The Thing! the Thing itself is the Abuse!"

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    Now we have some who suddenly abandoned the global warming hoax and are saying that we will soon enter a mini ice age. It’s deja vu all over again.

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    Quote Originally Posted by stjames1_53 View Post
    15000 years ago, the Ice age was ending. Sea levels were down 300 feet, most of the continents were covered in ice. There was hardly any place to set up shop by people.
    Now, remember, this planet has been changing since it first formed up. The whole planet underwent drastic changes as it warmed back up. It is continuing to change. Plate shifts, volcanic activity, one earth quake after another. That is the planet doing its own thing: Changing.
    You cannot stop the planet from changing anymore than you can change weather. It started out as on singular continent and split apart to form many. It has been speculated by leading geologists that it will reform as one continent again.
    How much money will it take to stop changing?

    ~snip~
    Geologically speaking, we live in a time period of intense climatic change. Since the last 1 million years, our species and our human forebears experienced a dozen or so major glaciations of the northern hemisphere, with the greatest ever occurring around 650,000 years ago. During this period of extreme ice buildup, the ice advanced deep into the Midwest, from its center around Hudson Bay in Canada, and deep into Germany, from its center on the Scandinavian Shield. So much ice collected in these two major regions and several lesser ones that the sea level dropped by some 400 feet and the overall global temperature was lowered by around 5įC (about 9įF). Mammoth, mastodon, wooly rhinoceros, giant bison, camels, horses, and many large predators (cats, wolves, bears) roamed the grasslands well south of the rim of the miles-high ice, both in North America and in Europe. Small bands of humans made a living by hunting and gathering in Africa, and perhaps elsewhere. The glaciation that occurred 650,000 years ago lasted some 50,000 years. It had a profound effect on the landscape, carving great glacial valleys and fjords and lakes, and making moraines and glacial outwash plains around the perimeter of its extent. The greatly lowered sea level allowed rivers to cut deeply into the shelves of the continents and into the edges of the shelves, where the sea floor drops off into the deep ocean. Here canyons could form which would later serve to funnel sediments from the shelf into the deep sea.
    ~snip~
    http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/virtualmu...ge2/01_1.shtml

    Where was Man during these massive changes?
    It's easier just to hold your hand out and demand we pay for nothing, than to accept the truth of the matter.
    I blame George Bush.
    Call your state legislators and insist they approve the Article V convention of States to propose amendments.


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    Quote Originally Posted by skepticalmike View Post
    Climate scientists are much smarter than you think they are.
    Maybe they are not as smart as they think *they* are.
    Call your state legislators and insist they approve the Article V convention of States to propose amendments.


    I pledge allegiance to the Constitution as written and understood by this nation's founders, and to the Republic it created, an indivisible union of sovereign States, with liberty and justice for all.

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    Quote Originally Posted by skepticalmike View Post
    Climate scientists are much smarter than you think they are ...
    ... which proves that "smart" people can do stupid things, and will if someone else is paying for it.
    "They are not after me, they are after you. I'm just in the way." -- President Trump's 12.18.19 analysis of democrats' impeachment fraud.

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