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Thread: What the New Hampshire Primary Means

  1. #11
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    Admiral Ackbar's Avatar Advisor
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    Bernie is an old Commie!
    "Don't piss down my back and tell me it's raining"----Fletcher in The Outlaw Josey Wales

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    Chris's Avatar Senior Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by Collateral Damage View Post
    If it came down to Trump or Bloomberg as the choices, I am likely going to not vote for the first time since I was 18.

    There isn't even a decent Independent, except for maybe Vermin Supreme. I like that tooth brushing law. (and for those who need it, joke)


    I'd end my boycott and get out and vote for him.
    Tradition is not the worship of ashes, but the preservation of fire. ― Gustav Mahler

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  4. #13
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    bulletbob's Avatar Senior Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by IMPress Polly View Post
    You know, in the grand scheme of things, this outcome is MUCH more encouraging to me than what the Iowa Caucus seemed to suggest! The main and most important thing here really is that, unlike in Iowa, turnout for the New Hampshire primary was unusually high; significantly higher than in 2016. In fact, with 97% of the votes counted, total turnout for yesterday's New Hampshire primary so far stands at 283,655, which is near the record 287,527 set in 2008, with more votes still to be counted. This turnout could, in fact, set a new record by the time the last votes are tallied, in other words!

    Turnout in the nominating contests matters in that it serves as a gauge of motivation. This turnout level on the Democratic side indicates high motivation, in stark contrast to the low turnout levels we saw in Iowa, and high motivation on the Democratic side at this stage is a good sign for the prospects of a Democratic victory in the fall. The smooth-as-glass operation of the New Hampshire primary, compared to the disaster that was the Iowa Caucus, is also a further indictment of the caucus system and a strong argument in favor of open primaries.

    The winner was Bernie Sanders, no surprise. With 97% of the votes counted, the results are as follows:

    Sanders: 25.9%
    Buttigieg: 24.4%
    Klobuchar: 19.8%
    Warren: 9.3%
    Biden: 8.4%
    Steyer: 3.6%
    Gabbard: 3.2%
    Yang: 2.8%
    Write-ins: 1.5%
    Patrick: 0.4%
    Bennet: 0.3%
    Others: 0.1%

    The aforementioned turnout level was achieved even despite the state's Republican-controlled government implementing a new law that requires car registration to vote, which they know full well is an arbitrary policy intended purely to minimize turnout among younger voters for any given election (thus generally advantaging Republicans). However, the new law may have dampened turnout for Bernie Sanders a bit in this primary, as this showing was much lower than the 60% share of the vote he won in New Hampshire in 2016. (Of course, there are also many more candidates to choose from this time around, but notably there was only one rival in the same "lane" of the party as Sanders in this election, and even combined, the votes for Sanders and Warren so far add up to only 35.2% of the total, so still a major slide for the progressive wing as a whole compared to 2016.)

    According to both exit poll data and the demographic composition of the areas where he got the most votes, Sanders' support was driven by urban voters in college towns, both by students and poorer workers without a college degree, and especially men falling into these categories. These are groups that Democrats struggled to either turn out or win the votes of (as applicable) in 2016, notably. Pete Buttigieg, Sanders's main rival, generally won in the rural areas of the state and in at least one wealthier, more Ivy League college town. Amy Klobuchar, strikingly, placed third in this contest, faring better than in Iowa, winning mainly among suburban women; the demographic group primarily responsible for the Democratic Party's major victory in the 2018 midterm elections, following a strong debate performance last Friday in which Klobuchar dropped many of her traditional canned lines that made her sound like a generic senator in favor of a more emotional, believable tone and an emphasis on her working class roots. That last point is also notable.

    The clear losers of the evening were Elizabeth Warren, who acquired single-digit support in her own proverbial backyard (the progressive vote is clearly consolidating around Bernie Sanders), and even more so Joe Biden, the former Vice President of the United States and hitherto national front-runner for both the Democratic nomination and the presidency itself. Biden didn't even bother remaining in New Hampshire for his national address of the evening, having placed fifth. Instead, he jetted off to South Carolina where he appears poised to make his last stand. Meanwhile, billionaire Michael Bloomberg has poured over $250 million in advertising for his own campaign into the 14 states that vote on March 3rd, known in political speak as Super Tuesday for the large number of states voting simultaneously that day. Bloomberg is clearly expecting Biden to fail and plans, in turn, to capitalize (pun definitely intended) on that failure by stealing his voters on March 3rd, thus replacing Biden as the standard-bearer of the neoliberals. The collapse of the Joe Biden campaign (and at this point I think we can call it that because he has underwhelmed expectations at every stage so far and his national support is also now in state of free-fall, having been built entirely on the now-discredited insistence that he is the "most electable" candidate) is especially remarkable here in that this is poised to become the first time that a current or former vice president will have been defeated for their party's nomination when they opted to run. So who says the Biden campaign isn't a history-making one?

    This election appears poised to see Bernie Sanders win the Democratic nomination, and, frankly, if the turnout for the New Hampshire primary is any indication, maybe, just maybe, even the presidency itself! To this end, we are now witnessing the launch of a conservative "stop Bernie" movement in Nevada, which will, on February 22nd, become the next state to vote. It's no wonder that representatives of the rich and powerful are concerned, given what Sanders represents and given that Latinas and Latinos compose a disproportionate share of Nevada's population compared to nationwide. 40% of New Hampshire's Hispanic voters cast their ballots for Sanders last night, which suggests that Sanders is even more popular among this segment of the population than he is among white voters. It's surely notable that Joe Biden, considered the only candidate who could rival Sanders in a state like Nevada with a large Latino population, has opted to skip ahead to South Carolina instead. That should tell you something further about what's most likely to come on the 22nd.

    Michael Bennet, Deval Patrick, and, in an IMO sad note, Andrew Yang ended their campaigns last night in the wake of the New Hampshire outcome. Yang I will miss. I really came to like him as a person even if I felt that he was running on too limited an array of policy ideas. Nevertheless, he has had a major, positive, and indeed outsized impact on public opinion. Whereas perhaps 3% of Americans supported the idea of establishing a universal basic income for the whole population before his campaign launched, today about 55% favor one, including two out of every three Democrats. Clearly his messaging on that was effective and has had an impact that's likely to last. In at least that sense, Yang can, in fact, claim that his campaign was a success. I'll miss him.
    it could mean democrats are going to elect a commie

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    gamewell45's Avatar Senior Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by IMPress Polly View Post
    I dunno, I'm foreseeing a Sanders nomination right now.

    It certainly had better not be Bloomberg who wins, as I have no intention of voting period if he's the nominee!
    Thus far, none of the democrat candidates do nothing for me; unless something changes it looks like I'll end up writing in my name for president once again.
    God Bless America, God Bless our Military and God Bless the Police who defended the country against the insurgents on January 6, 2021

    Think 3rd party for 2024 folks. Clean up America.

    Once I tell you that we agree to disagree there will be no more discussion between us in the thread so please don't waste your time continuing to argue your points because I will not respond.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gamewell45 View Post
    Thus far, none of the democrat candidates do nothing for me; unless something changes it looks like I'll end up writing in my name for president once again.

    Well good for you. That is one less anti capitalist vote to worry about.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bulletbob View Post
    it could mean democrats are going to elect a commie
    Her diatribe re the voter turnout may not be what she thinks it is. This is an NYT article on the subject

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/12/u...y-turnout.html

    As far as Bernie the Red gaining the White House, is the rank and file voter really ready for the government of Venezuela to move to Washington?

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    gamewell45's Avatar Senior Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by nathanbforrest45 View Post
    Well good for you. That is one less anti capitalist vote to worry about.
    Makes no difference anyhow, NY will go blue.
    God Bless America, God Bless our Military and God Bless the Police who defended the country against the insurgents on January 6, 2021

    Think 3rd party for 2024 folks. Clean up America.

    Once I tell you that we agree to disagree there will be no more discussion between us in the thread so please don't waste your time continuing to argue your points because I will not respond.

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    When I look at the Democrat Party then the only one that i could even withstand is BootyGay.
    Anyone else would make the White House my enemy. Joe Biden is just a fool.

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    Tahuyaman's Avatar Senior Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by IMPress Polly View Post
    What the New Hampshire Primary Means....
    In reality it means that none of your candidates can beat Trump.

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