Bernie Sanders and down-ballot Democrats

[pjohns]

I have read, more than once (in fact, much more than once) that there is relatively little ticket-splitting nowadays, when compared with earlier times. So it seems fair to suppose that most people who vote for Donald Trump for president will also vote for a Republican for the House; and most who vote Democratic for president will likewise vote Democratic for the House.

That said, there are still many Democrats--especially among the older ones--who simply cannot stomach the thought of an admitted socialist (even of the "democratic" variety) in the White House. Many will simply sit on their hands in November. A few will vote for Donald Trump.

And it is probably safe to assume that most who vote for Donald Trump will also vote Republican down-ballot.

Even those who simply do not vote at all are taking away votes from the Democratic candidates in their respective districts.

So it is possible that many Democrats who came in with the class of 2018 could be swept out in 2020 if Bernie Sanders is the nominee for president?

Note: Even if this is the case, it still seems improbable--to me, at least--that the Republicans would re-take control of the House. But it is possible, at least. And the odds against it seem to be getting shorter and shorter each week...

[carolina73]

I have read, more than once (in fact, much more than once) that there is relatively little ticket-splitting nowadays, when compared with earlier times. So it seems fair to suppose that most people who vote for Donald Trump for president will also vote for a Republican for the House; and most who vote Democratic for president will likewise vote Democratic for the House.

That said, there are still many Democrats--especially among the older ones--who simply cannot stomach the thought of an admitted socialist (even of the "democratic" variety) in the White House. Many will simply sit on their hands in November. A few will vote for Donald Trump.

And it is probably safe to assume that most who vote for Donald Trump will also vote Republican down-ballot.

Even those who simply do not vote at all are taking away votes from the Democratic candidates in their respective districts.

So it is possible that many Democrats who came in with the class of 2018 could be swept out in 2020 if Bernie Sanders is the nominee for president?

Note: Even if this is the case, it still seems improbable--to me, at least--that the Republicans would re-take control of the House. But it is possible, at least. And the odds against it seem to be getting shorter and shorter each week...

That is an excellent point and explains the lack of coat tails for the President in the mid terms.
However, I disagree with your thoughts on the House if this is true.

[ripmeister]

If Bernie is the nominee I can see moderates who can't stand Trump voting for Bernie but also voting for an R in the senate or house as a foil to Bernie.

[MMC]

Democratic Establishment Warns Sanders Would Hurt Party's ...

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/01/08/democratic_establishment_warns...
The ranks of the concerned include many Democrats tasked with preserving the party’s majority in the House and expanding its minority in the Senate and governors’ mansions across the country.


Well we know what the Demos and their Pundits are thinking.

[Jeb!]

I wouldn't bet on Republicans taking the House. There was actually a lot of ticket splitting in 2016 House races. Even in the Senate, there was some ticket splitting too, it just didn't change any outcomes. An example was Pat Toomey. He won with a different coalition than Trump won with. A lot of Clinton voters voted for Toomey for a check on Clinton, whose victory was seen as inevitable. So it's possible there will be districts out there like GA-06 that Trump wins, but they re-elect a Democrat House member anyway.

If Bernie is the nominee I can see moderates who can't stand Trump voting for Bernie but also voting for an R in the senate or house as a foil to Bernie.

The exact opposite of this is much more likely. And to be honest, I'd rather Republicans take the House than for Trump to win re-election if I could only pick one (except for maybe if Bernie Sanders is the nominee; I don't want him anywhere near the White House). I hate this crop of House Democrats.

[carolina73]

If Bernie is the nominee I can see moderates who can't stand Trump voting for Bernie but also voting for an R in the senate or house as a foil to Bernie.

That is not going to happen. They may write in someone's name but Bernie is far too extreme for even a neocon to vote for.

Bernie is a Socialist posing to be less than a Socialist. He is not even near the beliefs of the middle of America. Neocons get some of the things they like out of Trump. They would get nothing out of Bernie.

[ripmeister]

That is not going to happen. They may write in someone's name but Bernie is far too extreme for even a neocon to vote for.

Bernie is a Socialist posing to be less than a Socialist. He is not even near the beliefs of the middle of America. Neocons get some of the things they like out of Trump. They would get nothing out of Bernie.

I wasn't thinking of Neocons. We are in strange times. Practically anything is possible.

[Common]

The democrat establishment will screw bernie out of the nomination, they have annointed billionaire scumbag Bloomberg who is everything the democrats have been telling us they hate..

Old white racist billionaire mysoginist scumbag two faced fraud

[Tahuyaman]

A lot of people vote a straight party ticket for obvious reasons.

[Ransom]

I got news for you 'moderates.' A vote for Bernie Sanders isn't moderate. Oh, you can still consider yourself a moderate if you voted Bernie Mayor of Burlington. You can even call yourself a moderate if you voted Bernie for Senator of Vermont. After all, Bernie was moderate on guns and a few other issues. However, should you vote for this man to be President of the United States, you're not a moderate. Anyone hopping onboard the Bernie train....ain't a moderate voter. Sorry.