The Four Possible Timelines for Life Returning to Normal
The Atlantic offers 4 timelines for life returning to normal, or somewhat normal. Under each timeline there may be some relaxation of isolation, but large crowd events are likely out for at least 18 months.
The new coronavirus has brought American life to a near standstill, closing businesses, canceling large gatherings, and keeping people at home. All of those people must surely be wondering: When will things return to normal?
The answer is simple, if not exactly satisfying: when enough of the population—possibly 60 or 80 percent of people—is resistant to COVID-19 to stifle the disease’s spread from person to person. That is the end goal, although no one knows exactly how long it will take to get there.
There are two realistic paths to achieving this “population-level immunity.” One is the development of a vaccine. The other is for the disease to work its way through the population, surely killing many, but also leaving many others—those who contract the disease and then recover—immune. “They’re just Teflon at that point,” meaning they can’t get infected again and they won’t pass on the disease, explains Andrew Noymer, a public-health professor at the University of California at Irvine. Once enough people reach Teflon status—though we don’t yet know if recovering from the disease confers any immunity at all, let alone lifelong immunity—normalcy will be restored.TIMELINE ONE: ONE TO TWO MONTHS-
Considered unlikely by the experts (according to the Atlantic)
TIMELINE TWO: THREE TO FOUR MONTHS
With testing to determine who has the virus and who has the antibodies to the virus will allow a relaxation of isolation for those healthy and or immune while continuing the isolation of the at risk people.
TIMELINE THREE: FOUR TO 12 MONTHS
It seems this is like the 8 month spread depends on whether the virus goes dormant in the summer or not.
TIMELINE FOUR: 12 TO 18 MONTHS (OR LONGER)
This appears to be a no vaccine scenario.