Floyd effect on VP race: Klobuchar down, Demings up

[Lummy]

No matter what vehicle is used for voting, the system requires strict supervision and policing. Electronic voting, IMHO, is always more vulnerable to abuse than paper ballots. That's obvious to me unless you can prove otherwise. But in either case, it must be very closely watched.

[Lummy]

Attachment 29629

Let's see ... we're up to $1.65 in postage, so at some point soon, somebody is going to have to pay me at least for the stamps to keep doing this.

[MMC]

First that I have heard of her.

I am not sure a person not nationally known is a benefit to Digital Penetration Joe.

She quit when running for Mayor of Orlando. Surprised everyone to quit like that.


But she is in the running for VP. Dementia Joes qualifications are simple. Being a woman and being black.

[CenterField]

Not if we end the lockdown. Once that happens the economy is going to roar back.

It's not really guaranteed that the economy will roar back after the end of the lockdown. The lockdown is already ending in all 50 states. Lots of businesses will not recover from this. Consumer confidence is down. Consumer confidence is responsible for 70% of the GDP movement up or down. If people don't feel confident to go to restaurants and bars, these businesses that already operate with a small profit margin won't be viable. A lot of people who went into unemployment won't immediately find employment again. And then, if we get a second wave of contagion in the fall, all hell breaks lose again. People are likely to be weary of too much spending, afraid that something else that might happen in the fall/winter will derail the economy again. People will remain afraid of flying and will not take vacations as often. Sports will operate without spectators or with attendance limited to 15K. All these factors decrease the amount of money spent in a host city, etc. I could go on and on. I believe that the economic impact of this pandemic will be lasting.

I do agree with you that if the economy does robustly recover, Trump's chances are greatly enhanced to the point that I'd call him the favorite. But if it doesn't then the election will be a lot closer.

I see as a very important factor, the issue of the Warp Speed initiative succeeding or failing. If it succeeds or gives unequivocal signs that it will (even if the vaccines are not ready by then, but if they are just a couple of months away) than the nation will see Trump as the savior and will massively vote for him. If the initiative fails and vaccines appear to be one year away or never to be successful, then the population will be bitter, resentful, and tired.

Fairly or unfairly, the voters tend to blame the president for what is going on, even on things that aren't exactly under the president's control.

I think that Trump is a very strong candidate and Biden has an uphill battle, but this particular election cycle, there are so many intervening factors and so much uncertainty, that victory by either of these men is far from certain, at this point.

Let's also remember that Biden is old and half-demented so there will be very unusual attention to whoever he picks as a running mate. Usually the VP can hopefully deliver a state or two or not even... and it is more important that the veep just doesn't screw up, and all eyes are on the presidential candidate himself. This time, not so. Everybody is aware that Biden may falter even within his first term if elected, and it's been very clear including from his own words, that he wouldn't try for a second term. This time, the veep is of historical importance.

So, if Biden picks well, his chances will dramatically improve. If he picks poorly (like McCain did) then he is toast.

There are so many intangibles at this point, that anybody harboring certainty that either candidate is win, is simply not considering all the factors.

[MMC]

Obama Economist: Even Limited Growth Might Reelect Trump....


The improvement in the economy between now and Election Day could boost President Donald Trump's chances of regaining the White House, even if the situation is significantly worse than what it was just before the coronavirus pandemic struck, according to former Obama economic adviser Jason Furman.


"The economy went incredibly far down," Furman told Fox News' "America's Newsroom" on Wedndesay. "Over the next six months, it will move itself from very, very bad – which is where it was in April – to very bad or, if we are lucky, just bad towards the end of the year."


Even though Furman is not very optimistic the overall state of the economy will be good by the conclusion of 2020, the start of a bounceback from such a deep hole will still mean a large number of jobs created every month.....snip~


https://www.newsmax.com/politics/jas.../27/id/969300/


The Demos know Right now Trump can get the economy back up and going.


Of course the other tangible that is known. Despite the current state of affairs. Trump has more Black support than he did when he got elected, and its the same for Latinos.


Which means that's not good for Democrats. But is good for the country. Anytime its bad for Democrats. Its good for the country!

[MMC]

The general election scenario that Democrats are dreading ...

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/26/2020-election-democrats-281470
May 26, 2020 · The former Obama White House official said, “Even today when we are at over 20 million unemployed Trump gets high marks on the economy, so I can’t imagine what it …

[gamewell45]

This is an interesting aspect of the crisis triggered by George Floyd's death: it may have a profound impact on Joe Biden's search for a VP.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...s-joe-n1218936

Amy Klobuchar is seen as mishandling police brutality against blacks, in her state.

Val Demings on the other hand is a former law enforcement officer.

Advantage Demings.

This, plus Biden's "you ain't black" gaffe might enhance Biden's campaign's pressure to pick a black female, just not a female as promised, as his veep candidate. Given that Kamala Harris also doesn't have a stellar record in terms of how she was perceived by the black community when she was a prosecutor, it leaves among the front runners, Susan Rice, Stacey Abrams and Val Demings. The latter obviously has two advantages now: she might deliver a swing state, Florida, and might be the ideal conduit to heal the divisive relationship between the black community and the mean and women in blue uniform.

I think that Val Demings' chances have just greatly improved. Her weakest point is the lack of national name recognition (despite having acquired some from being one of the impeachment managers), but now she has an opportunity to shine, and she has already started talking about it. If she ends up being an important figure in handling this crisis, her name recognition will increase.

Opinions?

I suspect out of the three listed, Demings probably has the best shot at it. She's got the experience on a national level when compared to Rice or Abrams. Nonetheless it'll be interesting to see who gets the nod.

[Peter1469]

No matter what vehicle is used for voting, the system requires strict supervision and policing. Electronic voting, IMHO, is always more vulnerable to abuse than paper ballots. That's obvious to me unless you can prove otherwise. But in either case, it must be very closely watched.

You can have electronic with a paper backup.

[Peter1469]

The lockdown has and will cause businesses to fail. Others will rise to take their place. The economy will win.

It's not really guaranteed that the economy will roar back after the end of the lockdown. The lockdown is already ending in all 50 states. Lots of businesses will not recover from this. Consumer confidence is down. Consumer confidence is responsible for 70% of the GDP movement up or down. If people don't feel confident to go to restaurants and bars, these businesses that already operate with a small profit margin won't be viable. A lot of people who went into unemployment won't immediately find employment again. And then, if we get a second wave of contagion in the fall, all hell breaks lose again. People are likely to be weary of too much spending, afraid that something else that might happen in the fall/winter will derail the economy again. People will remain afraid of flying and will not take vacations as often. Sports will operate without spectators or with attendance limited to 15K. All these factors decrease the amount of money spent in a host city, etc. I could go on and on. I believe that the economic impact of this pandemic will be lasting.

I do agree with you that if the economy does robustly recover, Trump's chances are greatly enhanced to the point that I'd call him the favorite. But if it doesn't then the election will be a lot closer.

I see as a very important factor, the issue of the Warp Speed initiative succeeding or failing. If it succeeds or gives unequivocal signs that it will (even if the vaccines are not ready by then, but if they are just a couple of months away) than the nation will see Trump as the savior and will massively vote for him. If the initiative fails and vaccines appear to be one year away or never to be successful, then the population will be bitter, resentful, and tired.

Fairly or unfairly, the voters tend to blame the president for what is going on, even on things that aren't exactly under the president's control.

I think that Trump is a very strong candidate and Biden has an uphill battle, but this particular election cycle, there are so many intervening factors and so much uncertainty, that victory by either of these men is far from certain, at this point.

Let's also remember that Biden is old and half-demented so there will be very unusual attention to whoever he picks as a running mate. Usually the VP can hopefully deliver a state or two or not even... and it is more important that the veep just doesn't screw up, and all eyes are on the presidential candidate himself. This time, not so. Everybody is aware that Biden may falter even within his first term if elected, and it's been very clear including from his own words, that he wouldn't try for a second term. This time, the veep is of historical importance.

So, if Biden picks well, his chances will dramatically improve. If he picks poorly (like McCain did) then he is toast.

There are so many intangibles at this point, that anybody harboring certainty that either candidate is win, is simply not considering all the factors.

[carolina73]

It just shows me that Joe biden has to go pretty far down on the food chain to find a VP that does not make him look like an idiot.

Normally a possible future President was actually known by other people for something other than deciding not to accept the results of an election they lost by a sizable margin.