Originally Posted by
CenterField
It's not really guaranteed that the economy will roar back after the end of the lockdown. The lockdown is already ending in all 50 states. Lots of businesses will not recover from this. Consumer confidence is down. Consumer confidence is responsible for 70% of the GDP movement up or down. If people don't feel confident to go to restaurants and bars, these businesses that already operate with a small profit margin won't be viable. A lot of people who went into unemployment won't immediately find employment again. And then, if we get a second wave of contagion in the fall, all hell breaks lose again. People are likely to be weary of too much spending, afraid that something else that might happen in the fall/winter will derail the economy again. People will remain afraid of flying and will not take vacations as often. Sports will operate without spectators or with attendance limited to 15K. All these factors decrease the amount of money spent in a host city, etc. I could go on and on. I believe that the economic impact of this pandemic will be lasting.
I do agree with you that if the economy does robustly recover, Trump's chances are greatly enhanced to the point that I'd call him the favorite. But if it doesn't then the election will be a lot closer.
I see as a very important factor, the issue of the Warp Speed initiative succeeding or failing. If it succeeds or gives unequivocal signs that it will (even if the vaccines are not ready by then, but if they are just a couple of months away) than the nation will see Trump as the savior and will massively vote for him. If the initiative fails and vaccines appear to be one year away or never to be successful, then the population will be bitter, resentful, and tired.
Fairly or unfairly, the voters tend to blame the president for what is going on, even on things that aren't exactly under the president's control.
I think that Trump is a very strong candidate and Biden has an uphill battle, but this particular election cycle, there are so many intervening factors and so much uncertainty, that victory by either of these men is far from certain, at this point.
Let's also remember that Biden is old and half-demented so there will be very unusual attention to whoever he picks as a running mate. Usually the VP can hopefully deliver a state or two or not even... and it is more important that the veep just doesn't screw up, and all eyes are on the presidential candidate himself. This time, not so. Everybody is aware that Biden may falter even within his first term if elected, and it's been very clear including from his own words, that he wouldn't try for a second term. This time, the veep is of historical importance.
So, if Biden picks well, his chances will dramatically improve. If he picks poorly (like McCain did) then he is toast.
There are so many intangibles at this point, that anybody harboring certainty that either candidate is win, is simply not considering all the factors.