This is not good - Covid immunity maybe not lasting

[countryboy]

@CenterField Thanks for all the valuable information.

Lol.

[countryboy]

Why?

If China was fudging numbers (again) why would they publish negative results?

Because, China.

[BenjaminO]

In this small study from China involving asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic people with COVID-19, after 2 to 3 months there was a steep decline in antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0965-6

This doesn't bode well for the efficacy of a vaccine. Darn. I've been very optimistic about a vaccine.

Oh well, maybe a vaccine will offer some protection but will have to be taken four times per year.

This would also hurt the hope for herd immunity would it not?

[BenjaminO]

Lol.

LOL at Lol.

[Peter1469]

This would also hurt the hope for herd immunity would it not?

It would probably be like the flu shot and the flu. You can still get the flu, but likely not as severe than if you didn't get the shot.

[MMC]

Updated as of 6-22-20

• The CDC recently revised its death rate estimate down to just 0.4 percent.
• One percent of counties in the country account for more than half of all Covid-19 deaths nationally.
• Ten percent of counties account for more than 90 percent of all deaths.
• Roughly 40 percent of the counties in the country haven’t experienced a single coronavirus death.
• 42 percent of all coronavirus deaths have come in nursing homes.
• In many states, nursing homes and assisted living facilities account for far more than half of all deaths—81 percent in Minnesota and 70 percent in Ohio.
• More than 80 percent of all Covid-19 deaths are among those over 65 years old.
• Those aged under 55 account for just seven percent of all Covid-19 deaths.
• If you are 34 years old or younger, your probability of dying from Covid-19 as of June 3rd was 0.0005 percent.
• The overwhelming majority of deaths are among those with at least one other underlying medical condition. For 7% of the deaths, Covid-19 was the only cause mentioned.
• Daily Florida deaths continue to fall—dropping from 51 per day to 34 per day over the last month, according to the 7-day moving average
• A sizeable portion of Arizona cases have occurred on Indian reservations.....snip~

https://flattenthefear.com/news-arti...tten-the-fear/

[midcan5]

It is going to take years before the implications of this virus are well done and treatable. See book I've linked often.

http://thepoliticalforums.com/thread...us-Information


Written in 2017 "This is a critical point in history. Time is running out to prepare for the next pandemic. We must act now with decisiveness and purpose. Someday, after the next pandemic has come and gone, a commission much like the 9/11 Commission will be charged with determining how well government, business, and public health leaders prepared the world for the catastrophe when they had clear warning. What will be the verdict?"

'Deadliest Enemy: Our War Against Killer Germs' by Michael T. Osterholm, Mark Olshaker

https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/sh...eadliest-enemy

"Mother Nature is the greatest bioterrorist of them all, with no financial limitations or ethical compunctions."

[Peter1469]

Well it is a coronavirus, so it is likely we won't find a cure. Just ways to mitigate its harm.

It is going to take years before the implications of this virus are well done and treatable. See book I've linked often.

http://thepoliticalforums.com/thread...us-Information


Written in 2017 "This is a critical point in history. Time is running out to prepare for the next pandemic. We must act now with decisiveness and purpose. Someday, after the next pandemic has come and gone, a commission much like the 9/11 Commission will be charged with determining how well government, business, and public health leaders prepared the world for the catastrophe when they had clear warning. What will be the verdict?"

'Deadliest Enemy: Our War Against Killer Germs' by Michael T. Osterholm, Mark Olshaker

https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/sh...eadliest-enemy

"Mother Nature is the greatest bioterrorist of them all, with no financial limitations or ethical compunctions."

[Peter1469]

Here is an article from Science Mag discussing the Chinese study.
@CenterField

This group (from China) looked at 37 patients who tested positive (by RT-PCR) for coronavirus infection, but who had not displayed symptoms before testing (and continued to show none during subsequent monitoring), and compared them to the more well-studied symptomatic patients. One thing that stands out from a public health perspective is that the asymptomatic group had a much longer period of viral RNA shedding. That is not what one would have wanted to hear, since these are the people who are walking around without realizing that they’re sick at all.But it’s also important to realize that this report, as with so many reports of viral shedding, it looking at it by detection of viral RNA. That does not mean that there is infectious virus present. (This distinction has confused a great number of reports about the persistence of the virus on surfaces as well). We still don’t know how long infected patients (symptomatic and asymptomatic) are shedding infectious virus – those are far harder data points to obtain than just detecting viral RNA. I should note that this goes for the recent reports, which were all over the media, about the possibility of spreading coronavirus through flushing toilets. Now, I think that closing the toilet lid is a pretty good precaution, because it’s an easy enough thing to do. But the spread of infectious virus through toilet aerosols has not been proven, to the best of my knowledge. You can find viral RNA in sewage, and monitoring it could be a useful public health measure in water-treatment plants. But infectious virus is something else again.

Now, when you hear of patients who are infected but are showing no symptoms, you could have a mental picture of a stronger immune response that’s keeping the virus knocked down more. But it’s clearly not that simple: this paper shows that the asymptomatic patients had a weaker antibody response that tended to disappear during the convalescent phase. That’s the result that’s gotten a lot of attention – as it should – although it’s important to not run with it too quickly. Remember, there is more than one type of immune response – you have T cells pitching in as well. That response is one of the great unanswered questions of the epidemic, from what I can see. We already have data about some of the T cell responses in symptomatic infected patients as compared to uninfected ones, and one of the most intriguing things about that earlier work was the finding that 40 to 60% of those uninfected people had CD4+ T cells that appear to already recognizethe new coronavirus. The speculation is that this could be immune memory of past infections with other coronaviruses (such as the ones that can cause common-cold illnesses), and that they are cross-reacting with the current pathogen. (Update: from the comments, this work that raises the possibility that the T-cell response is from zoonotic coronavirus infections that we hadn’t appreciated). That’s very much in contrast to the antibody situation in uninfected patients – it seems clear that the human population had raised no circulating antibodies to the new coronavirus before the advent of this pathogen. Prior infection with other coronaviruses does nothing for you on the antibody side.

And that’s the missing piece from this new work. It is possible that these asymptomatic patients are showing a weak antibody response because they already had a more robust T-cell response ready to go. Now, this hypothesis could be wrong, but it has to be tested. In the same way, it’s possible that there is a percentage of the population that, because of their T-cell profile, are more likely to have only such an asymptomatic infection or perhaps to not become infected at all. That’s a very important thing to clear up, but it’s unfortunately a lot more labor-intensive to profile CD4+ and CD8+ T cells in people than it is to profile their antibody responses. This applies to the vaccines under development as well: T cell effects are an important component of vaccine efficacy, but there’s a lot that we don’t understand about how various vaccines raise such responses. There have been many reports of recovered patients who never seem to have raised much of an antibody response at all, and it’s not yet clear how they cleared the virus: was it the innate immune response that did the job before the adaptive system kicked in, particularly in younger patients? Was it the T-cell response instead? We just don’t know yet.

So my advice is not to panic, but not to be complacent, either.

[Captdon]

I don't think anyone knows $#@! about this virus.