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Thread: This is not good - Covid immunity maybe not lasting

  1. #81
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    countryboy's Avatar Senior Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by CenterField View Post
    Huh, maybe I'm clueless, then, because I'm definitely not a partisan hack. What party am I defending, may I ask? Just today I started a thread against AOC. Look at my thread about illegal immigration. Does it seem to you like the work of a Democrat? I'm not a Republican either, so, I'm at a loss to figure out what party you think I'm hacking for.

    No, I don't trust China. I don't even like China (much the opposite). No, I rarely believe in what comes from China if ever, especially not when it comes from official Chinese sources. But I do open an exception to *some* well-meaning members of the scientific community (which in many cases tend to be more apolitical) especially when the conclusion these Chinese scientists are issuing seems to place China in a bad light.

    So, I like to think that I'm not clueless, but if that's the only two categories you think I need to be defined by, then I'll take clueless because I'm definitely not a partisan hack. I am an independent voter and there's a reason why I subscribe to no party: I abhor both major parties (and the smaller ones too) and mistrust most politicians, whether they have an R or a D or an L or whatever other small party denomination out there, in front of their names.
    Lol, I'm not convinced you're clueless. Everything out of China is from official sources, but you already knew that.

    You seriously can't think of a single reason why China would push such a narrative? Riiight.
    Cutesy Time is OVER

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    http://thepoliticalforums.com/threads/122719?p=2897631#post2897631
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  4. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by countryboy View Post
    Lol, I'm not convinced you're clueless. Everything out of China is from official sources, but you already knew that.

    You seriously can't think of a single reason why China would push such a narrative? Riiight.
    No, not everything; a small research group from a reputable Chinese medical school wouldn't necessarily fall under that; might fly under the radar, be considered not as important to be so closely scrutinized. Better proof, this study did go through, and it doesn't portray the pandemic in a good light (which I'd think would be contrary to China's interest). So this study might be the exception that shows that some things do fall through the cracks. It's a vast country, after all; it must be difficult to keep everything under a lid. We've heard of Chinese dissidents before so it's not like they can control everything.

    By the way, recently there was talk from people inside Wuhan that the government was underplaying the number of dead people (something that obviously I see them doing), and we did hear about it, so the Chinese government was unable to silence all dissidents and the information did get out to the West.

    Anyway, no, I couldn't think of a reason. But maybe you have a point. Hm... China is also trying to make a vaccine. We all know that the front runner for a vaccine will get a boost in stock sales. I'd rather get our own Moderna to get that boost rather than British-Swedish's AstraZeneca or China's Sinovac (or any other foreign competitor), but if this study spells bad luck for vaccines, I don't see how discrediting Moderna's and AstraZeneca's efforts would boost Sinovac. Besides, a small study like this wouldn't be enough to stop Moderna's or AstraZeneca's efforts. Maybe if vaccines don't succeed, some Chinese maker comes up with an effective treatment? I haven't seen any signs of that, and again, how would this small study stop the efforts? Do they want Moderna and AstraZeneca to waste time looking into that? But I don't think they'd slow down. They are in a wicked race. The maximum that this might do to influence Moderna and AstraZeneca would be for them to use higher doses of the vaccine in the hope of a more robust effect. One might say, this would increase the risk of side effects, thus slowing down the makers. But see, this might also HELP Moderna and AstraZeneca, if given the ref flak raised by the Chinese, they end up increasing doses and ending up with a MORE efficacious vaccine. How would the Chinese calculate if the effect of this small study would be positive or negative on Moderna's and AstraZeneca's efforts??? Too many variables that they wouldn't be able to control. Besides, if they wanted to really derail Moderna and AstraZeneca, the way to go would be different: if they started falsely claiming the emergence of a totally different, mutated strain of the virus. THAT could give Moderna and AstraZeneca pause, because they might want to use that genetic information to make a bi-valent vaccine, start trying to negotiate with the Chinese to get the info while pausing their production in the hope of incorporating the new strain (which would not exist, the Chinese would stall, etc., meanwhile Sinovac would be plowing ahead...). Well that would work for a while but not forever, because they'd have to show evidence of the new strain, and if they didn't, then the Western vaccine makers would likely eventually call their bluff. But I mean, if the goal here were to delay Moderna and AstraZeneca, they'd accomplish it much more by claiming a dangerous mutation, than by saying that IgG antibody titres drop 2-3 months after recovery.

    Could you be thinking that it is because asymptomatic people getting a smaller immune response would give to China the excuse to say "they went undetected, it's not our fault if they spread"? No, because these are antibody studies, not antigen studies. The PCR test which is an antigen test is the one that catches infected people when they are still contagious. Antibody tests are for the aftermath, so this study wouldn't deliver this angle, at all.

    Frankly, and I'm being very honest here, I don't see what the political agenda would be to falsely say (as you contend) that IgG antibodies drop after 2 to 3 months after someone recovers from COVID-19. Seriously, if I'm not seeing it, maybe I *am* clueless, but then, please help me out. What do you think the reason might be? I'm open to considering your idea, and if I find it to be compelling, like I've done over and over since I joined this site, I'll say "good point."
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  5. #84
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    Quote Originally Posted by CenterField View Post
    No, not everything; a small research group from a reputable Chinese medical school wouldn't necessarily fall under that; might fly under the radar, be considered not as important to be so closely scrutinized. Better proof, this study did go through, and it doesn't portray the pandemic in a good light (which I'd think would be contrary to China's interest). So this study might be the exception that shows that some things do fall through the cracks. It's a vast country, after all; it must be difficult to keep everything under a lid. We've heard of Chinese dissidents before so it's not like they can control everything.

    By the way, recently there was talk from people inside Wuhan that the government was underplaying the number of dead people (something that obviously I see them doing), and we did hear about it, so the Chinese government was unable to silence all dissidents and the information did get out to the West.

    Anyway, no, I couldn't think of a reason. But maybe you have a point. Hm... China is also trying to make a vaccine. We all know that the front runner for a vaccine will get a boost in stock sales. I'd rather get our own Moderna to get that boost rather than British-Swedish's AstraZeneca or China's Sinovac (or any other foreign competitor), but if this study spells bad luck for vaccines, I don't see how discrediting Moderna's and AstraZeneca's efforts would boost Sinovac. Besides, a small study like this wouldn't be enough to stop Moderna's or AstraZeneca's efforts. Maybe if vaccines don't succeed, some Chinese maker comes up with an effective treatment? I haven't seen any signs of that, and again, how would this small study stop the efforts? Do they want Moderna and AstraZeneca to waste time looking into that? But I don't think they'd slow down. They are in a wicked race. The maximum that this might do to influence Moderna and AstraZeneca would be for them to use higher doses of the vaccine in the hope of a more robust effect. One might say, this would increase the risk of side effects, thus slowing down the makers. But see, this might also HELP Moderna and AstraZeneca, if given the ref flak raised by the Chinese, they end up increasing doses and ending up with a MORE efficacious vaccine. How would the Chinese calculate if the effect of this small study would be positive or negative on Moderna's and AstraZeneca's efforts??? Too many variables that they wouldn't be able to control. Besides, if they wanted to really derail Moderna and AstraZeneca, the way to go would be different: if they started falsely claiming the emergence of a totally different, mutated strain of the virus. THAT could give Moderna and AstraZeneca pause, because they might want to use that genetic information to make a bi-valent vaccine, start trying to negotiate with the Chinese to get the info while pausing their production in the hope of incorporating the new strain (which would not exist, the Chinese would stall, etc., meanwhile Sinovac would be plowing ahead...). Well that would work for a while but not forever, because they'd have to show evidence of the new strain, and if they didn't, then the Western vaccine makers would likely eventually call their bluff. But I mean, if the goal here were to delay Moderna and AstraZeneca, they'd accomplish it much more by claiming a dangerous mutation, than by saying that IgG antibody titres drop 2-3 months after recovery.

    Could you be thinking that it is because asymptomatic people getting a smaller immune response would give to China the excuse to say "they went undetected, it's not our fault if they spread"? No, because these are antibody studies, not antigen studies. The PCR test which is an antigen test is the one that catches infected people when they are still contagious. Antibody tests are for the aftermath, so this study wouldn't deliver this angle, at all.

    Frankly, and I'm being very honest here, I don't see what the political agenda would be to falsely say (as you contend) that IgG antibodies drop after 2 to 3 months after someone recovers from COVID-19. Seriously, if I'm not seeing it, maybe I *am* clueless, but then, please help me out. What do you think the reason might be? I'm open to considering your idea, and if I find it to be compelling, like I've done over and over since I joined this site, I'll say "good point."
    I didn't bother reading past the bolded portion. You are either very naive, or..... not.
    Cutesy Time is OVER

  6. #85
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    Quote Originally Posted by countryboy View Post
    I didn't bother reading past the bolded portion. You are either very naive, or..... not.
    Countryboy, I made several hypotheses about what their bias might have been, what could explain it, and asked for your help to find out (said "maybe you have a point"). Said I want to consider your idea. So, read it, please. It's not that long. It's longish because I tried to put a lot of thought into what you said, that is, I'm respecting your take and trying to figure it out (especially in that long middle paragraph). But if you choose to simply ignore what I'm saying and not read it, then we won't reach a conclusion.
    _________________________
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