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Thread: I know it's obvious, but... COVID-19 couldn't have been stopped

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    I know it's obvious, but... COVID-19 couldn't have been stopped

    I'd like to see this issue less politicized, and treated more like a matter of public health than like a political hot potato, with political sides trying to score points against their opponents.

    These two links might provide some interesting food for thought, to decrease the blame game:

    https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6489/395

    The above link shows how little was able to be accomplished both domestically in China, and internationally, with travel restrictions. By the time even the earliest governmental restrictions were implemented, it was already too late. There was no way to do anything any earlier, when the virus wasn't even known.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...-emerged-asia/

    The above link shows an expert opinion, saying that it is looking more and more likely that the virus didn't even originate in China, but was circulating in the world even before it was first found in China.

    The earliest known copies of the SARS-CoV-2 were found in early November in Brazil, in water samples collected from sewage, and stored at the FIOCRUZ Institute for various research projects (that's their CDC). That's one month before the virus was even spotted in China for the first time! According to this Oxford University expert, it is possible that this virus was already widespread and relatively dormant even before the outbreak, so, there was no stopping it. Very interesting is the fact that a case popped up in the very isolated Falklands Islands in February! How the hell did it get there? The expert compares it with the puzzling fact that in the Spanish Flu of 1018, the disease killed one third of the population of Samoa when *nobody* had visited the island from abroad, showing that the virus was dormant there before the pandemic started.

    ----------

    Maybe we should stop blaming our leaders for this inevitable pandemic.
    _________________________
    Please take COVID-19 seriously; don't panic but don't deny it; practice social distancing (stay 6ft from people); wear a mask, wash your hands a lot, don't touch your face, don't gather with too many people, so that you help us contain it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CenterField View Post
    I'd like to see this issue less politicized, and treated more like a matter of public health than like a political hot potato, with political sides trying to score points against their opponents.

    These two links might provide some interesting food for thought, to decrease the blame game:

    https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6489/395

    The above link shows how little was able to be accomplished both domestically in China, and internationally, with travel restrictions. By the time even the earliest governmental restrictions were implemented, it was already too late. There was no way to do anything any earlier, when the virus wasn't even known.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...-emerged-asia/

    The above link shows an expert opinion, saying that it is looking more and more likely that the virus didn't even originate in China, but was circulating in the world even before it was first found in China.

    The earliest known copies of the SARS-CoV-2 were found in early November in Brazil, in water samples collected from sewage, and stored at the FIOCRUZ Institute for various research projects (that's their CDC). That's one month before the virus was even spotted in China for the first time! According to this Oxford University expert, it is possible that this virus was already widespread and relatively dormant even before the outbreak, so, there was no stopping it. Very interesting is the fact that a case popped up in the very isolated Falklands Islands in February! How the hell did it get there? The expert compares it with the puzzling fact that in the Spanish Flu of 1018, the disease killed one third of the population of Samoa when *nobody* had visited the island from abroad, showing that the virus was dormant there before the pandemic started.

    ----------

    Maybe we should stop blaming our leaders for this inevitable pandemic.
    CF, I and a few others have been correct all along that this virus is going to touch everyone. Masks are not working, safe distancing isn't working. It is too volatile.
    A person with rubber gloves can spread it regardless. A covered hand will pick it up and spread it as if there were no gloves present.
    All of those poor saps that sheltered in are still going to get exposed when they finally go out, as we've clearly seen.
    Herd immunity.................
    For waltky: http://quakes.globalincidentmap.com/
    "The Nation that makes a great distinction between its scholars and its warriors will have its thinking done by cowards and its fighting done by fools."
    - Thucydides

    "Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote" B. Franklin
    Igitur qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum

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    Quote Originally Posted by stjames1_53 View Post
    CF, I and a few others have been correct all along that this virus is going to touch everyone. Masks are not working, safe distancing isn't working. It is too volatile.
    A person with rubber gloves can spread it regardless. A covered hand will pick it up and spread it as if there were no gloves present.
    All of those poor saps that sheltered in are still going to get exposed when they finally go out, as we've clearly seen.
    Herd immunity.................
    St.James, this is probably true - that the virus will eventually get most people - if there isn't a vaccine. But if there is one, and it is coming relatively soon (some believe it will be here in December or January) then it is worth taking as many precautions as possible (without slowing down the economy too much; no lockdowns, but yes to staying 6ft away from people, wearing masks, and sanitizing hands) so that we minimize the number of people who catch this, and then beat the virus with a vaccine.

    If research on vaccine failed miserable, all the vaccine candidates came out and said "that's it, folks, this virus is mutating too fast, sorry but we can't make a vaccine) then I'd subscribe to your idea. But while the vaccine seems relatively imminent, I'll prefer to remain cautions.
    _________________________
    Please take COVID-19 seriously; don't panic but don't deny it; practice social distancing (stay 6ft from people); wear a mask, wash your hands a lot, don't touch your face, don't gather with too many people, so that you help us contain it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CenterField View Post
    St.James, this is probably true - that the virus will eventually get most people - if there isn't a vaccine. But if there is one, and it is coming relatively soon (some believe it will be here in December or January) then it is worth taking as many precautions as possible (without slowing down the economy too much; no lockdowns, but yes to staying 6ft away from people, wearing masks, and sanitizing hands) so that we minimize the number of people who catch this, and then beat the virus with a vaccine.

    If research on vaccine failed miserable, all the vaccine candidates came out and said "that's it, folks, this virus is mutating too fast, sorry but we can't make a vaccine) then I'd subscribe to your idea. But while the vaccine seems relatively imminent, I'll prefer to remain cautions.
    vaccine for a constantly changing virus..........it'll take two years at best.
    WE cannot shelter in place for two years or even for another 6 months. There is no slowing it down as you witnessed. As soon as people come out, who haven't been exposed, they will be.
    Herd immunity will end up being the cure.
    For waltky: http://quakes.globalincidentmap.com/
    "The Nation that makes a great distinction between its scholars and its warriors will have its thinking done by cowards and its fighting done by fools."
    - Thucydides

    "Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote" B. Franklin
    Igitur qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum

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    Quote Originally Posted by CenterField View Post
    I'd like to see this issue less politicized, and treated more like a matter of public health than like a political hot potato, with political sides trying to score points against their opponents.

    These two links might provide some interesting food for thought, to decrease the blame game:

    https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6489/395

    The above link shows how little was able to be accomplished both domestically in China, and internationally, with travel restrictions. By the time even the earliest governmental restrictions were implemented, it was already too late. There was no way to do anything any earlier, when the virus wasn't even known.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...-emerged-asia/

    The above link shows an expert opinion, saying that it is looking more and more likely that the virus didn't even originate in China, but was circulating in the world even before it was first found in China.

    The earliest known copies of the SARS-CoV-2 were found in early November in Brazil, in water samples collected from sewage, and stored at the FIOCRUZ Institute for various research projects (that's their CDC). That's one month before the virus was even spotted in China for the first time! According to this Oxford University expert, it is possible that this virus was already widespread and relatively dormant even before the outbreak, so, there was no stopping it. Very interesting is the fact that a case popped up in the very isolated Falklands Islands in February! How the hell did it get there? The expert compares it with the puzzling fact that in the Spanish Flu of 1018, the disease killed one third of the population of Samoa when *nobody* had visited the island from abroad, showing that the virus was dormant there before the pandemic started.

    ----------

    Maybe we should stop blaming our leaders for this inevitable pandemic.

    Yeah! A rational statement.

    Better education could have helped reduce it but the governors were determined to be Tyrannical.

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    Quote Originally Posted by stjames1_53 View Post
    vaccine for a constantly changing virus..........it'll take two years at best.
    WE cannot shelter in place for two years or even for another 6 months. There is no slowing it down as you witnessed. As soon as people come out, who haven't been exposed, they will be.
    Herd immunity will end up being the cure.
    So far there hasn't been a lot of mutation. There was one concerning strain that appears more infectious but not more lethal. Its impact on vaccines is still unknown. Even if different strains reduce the efficacy of a vaccine, if a vaccine protects only 75% but this is enough to dampen the severity of the illness (so that people will still catch it but won't die and won't get permanent damage to organs) it's already a major victory.

    The Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has ALREADY started phase 3 and they intend to finish it up by December. They will also continue to manufacture the vaccine by the millions in the hope that it will work; if it does then they will distribute it immediately with no further delay. The US has reserved 300 million doses.

    The Moderna/NIH vaccine is starting phase 3 in a few days. They have hopes to finish phase 3 by the end of October. They are prepared to manufacture millions too as their process is easier and faster to manufacture, and as an American company sponsored by the NIH on this, their vaccine will be first for us, and only after we get it sufficiently diffused here, they'll export it to other countries.

    So, no, so far the vaccines are actually looking good.

    This could change, though, if more drastic mutations occur, in which case, like I said, I'd abandon hope and subscribe to the idea that only herd immunity will eventually slow this virus down. For now I'm still hopeful for the vaccine. It's a much better solution given that we'd need at least 50% infected to get herd immunity naturally (without a vaccine) and this would bring about a lot of deaths and permanent health consequences for those with serious illness.

    Not to forget, if the virus mutates too fast like you're fearing, then herd immunity won't even happen regardless of the number of people infected.
    Last edited by CenterField; 07-06-2020 at 12:18 PM.
    _________________________
    Please take COVID-19 seriously; don't panic but don't deny it; practice social distancing (stay 6ft from people); wear a mask, wash your hands a lot, don't touch your face, don't gather with too many people, so that you help us contain it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CenterField View Post
    So far there hasn't been a lot of mutation. There was one concerning strain that appears more infectious but not more lethal. Its impact on vaccines is still unknown. Even if different strains reduce the efficacy of a vaccine, if a vaccine protects only 75% but this is enough to dampen the severity of the illness (so that people will still catch it but won't die and won't get permanent damage to organs) it's already a major victory.

    The Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has ALREADY started phase 3 and they intend to finish it up by December. They will also continue to manufacture the vaccine by the millions in the hope that it will work; if it does then they will distribute it immediately with no further delay. The US has reserved 300 million doses.

    The Moderna/NIH vaccine is starting phase 3 in a few days. They have hopes to finish phase 3 by the end of October. They are prepared to manufacture millions too as their process is easier and faster to manufacture, and as an American company sponsored by the NIH on this, their vaccine will be first for us, and only after we get it sufficiently diffused here, they'll export it to other countries.

    So, no, so far the vaccines are actually looking good.

    This could change, though, if more drastic mutations occur, in which case, like I said, I'd abandon hope and subscribe to the idea that only herd immunity will eventually slow this virus down. For now I'm still hopeful for the vaccine. It's a much better solution given that we'd need at least 50% infected to get herd immunity naturally (without a vaccine) and this would bring about a lot of deaths and permanent health consequences for those with serious illness.

    Not to forget, if the virus mutates too fast like you're fearing, then herd immunity won't even happen regardless of the number of people infected.
    The harsh reality of it is that there is no getting away from this. Everyone will come into contact with it at some point. The vaccine won't be useable for at least another year.
    As far as built up immunity, just like the rest of everything else about this virus, we won't know until further down the line.
    I prefer to view it in the positive. I've been exposed, no symptoms, sheltered in with three other people. Two of them had symptoms early on, but they were just miserable and hacked frequently. That portion of it lasted about a week.
    That's been almost 4 months ago. It could be that my antibodies will offer up some resistance should I be exposed in the next round. But we won't know for a while.
    In fact, it'll be five years before all of the research will been gone over and analyzed, studies published, reviews on those studies, looking for a better vaccination.
    What we really need is a severe clampdown on governments and private agencies functions within biohazard research and studies.
    I'm sure the public general would shat their pants if they really know what was being stored in some of "facilities"
    For waltky: http://quakes.globalincidentmap.com/
    "The Nation that makes a great distinction between its scholars and its warriors will have its thinking done by cowards and its fighting done by fools."
    - Thucydides

    "Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote" B. Franklin
    Igitur qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum

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    I haven't had the flu in 8 years. Common cold in 4. I am very grateful for this and thank the Good Lord for watching over me every day. But I refuse to yield to fear.

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    Somehow rational thought has not been applied here. No government can stop a virus.
    When Donald Trump said to protest “peacefully”, he meant violence.

    When he told protesters to “go home”, he meant stay for an insurrection.

    And when he told Brad Raffensperger to implement “whatever the correct legal remedy is”, he meant fraud.

    War is peace.

    Freedom is slavery.

    Ignorance is strength.

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    Quote Originally Posted by stjames1_53 View Post
    The harsh reality of it is that there is no getting away from this. Everyone will come into contact with it at some point. The vaccine won't be useable for at least another year.
    As far as built up immunity, just like the rest of everything else about this virus, we won't know until further down the line.
    I prefer to view it in the positive. I've been exposed, no symptoms, sheltered in with three other people. Two of them had symptoms early on, but they were just miserable and hacked frequently. That portion of it lasted about a week.
    That's been almost 4 months ago. It could be that my antibodies will offer up some resistance should I be exposed in the next round. But we won't know for a while.
    In fact, it'll be five years before all of the research will been gone over and analyzed, studies published, reviews on those studies, looking for a better vaccination.
    What we really need is a severe clampdown on governments and private agencies functions within biohazard research and studies.
    I'm sure the public general would shat their pants if they really know what was being stored in some of "facilities"
    My hope is that we get an early partially effective vaccine, enough to stop people from dying or getting permanent brain, lung, kidney, or heart damage (not to forget the strokes) and then like you said in a few more years we'll get fully effective vaccines. But I'll be happy with one that is 75% protective, in six months or so and it is possible (although if the smallest thing goes wrong then it gets delayed, more like your timeline).

    Yes, some of these labs have some very scary stuff!!! And it's enough for some low standard country to get an accident (remember Chernobyl?) and humankind is screwed.
    _________________________
    Please take COVID-19 seriously; don't panic but don't deny it; practice social distancing (stay 6ft from people); wear a mask, wash your hands a lot, don't touch your face, don't gather with too many people, so that you help us contain it.

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