Trump has 91% chance of winning second term, professor’s model predicts.....

[Reason10]

Just keep believing. Trump didn’t fire his campaign manager yesterday because he’s winning.

You are going to be a basket case on Election Night when RACIST JOE is forced to concede at ten o'clock.

[John Galt]

Trump claws back: Cuts 10-point deficit to Biden to just 3 points


LMAO.....the leftness forgot just how flawed their Democrat is. All it took was for Dementia Joe to get out there and start talking about his policy.

Typically, if you have to run to Rasmussen, you've already lost the debate.

[MMC]

Typically, if you have to run to Rasmussen, you've already lost the debate.

So you don't know they were one of the most accurate pollsters for 2016. While all your lame Stream polling got it wrong, huh? Now why isn't that surprising.

You should at least listen to Nate Silver and who he gives a shout out to when he gets it wrong.

[Reason10]

Typically, if you have to run to Rasmussen, you've already lost the debate.

You have NEVER won a debate, Snowflake.

Just crawl back under your rock and let the adults talk here.

[RichardMZhlubb]

So you don't know they were one of the most accurate pollsters for 2016. While all your lame Stream polling got it wrong, huh? Now why isn't that surprising.

You should at least listen to Nate Silver and who he gives a shout out to when he gets it wrong.

Silver acknowledges that Rasmussen's final national poll in 2016 was accurate, but also points out that their overall record is mediocre and rated them the 11th most accurate polling agency going into the 2018 mid-terms. Quinnipiac is more accurate and had a poll yesterday with Biden up 15 points. Monmouth is number 1 on 538's list and their most recent poll had Biden up 12 points.

[MMC]

Silver acknowledges that Rasmussen's final national poll in 2016 was accurate, but also points out that their overall record is mediocre and rated them the 11th most accurate polling agency going into the 2018 mid-terms. Quinnipiac is more accurate and had a poll yesterday with Biden up 15 points. Monmouth is number 1 on 538's list and their most recent poll had Biden up 12 points.

He acknowledges that when it comes to presidential Elections that Rassmussen is accurate. Mediocre for House and Senate Elections.

Quinnepac poll was of registered voters. 1273 voters. You can keep counting the polls up to the last week and they will show Biden winning. Then reality will set in on Election day.

[pjohns]

Are you in the top 1% Pam?

If not, relax - Ya got NUTTIN to worry about hun.

The left has promulgated a myth (semi-effectively, at least): Why, only "the top 1%" of Americans received a tax cut, due to President Trump's tax reform.

Actually, middle-class Americans also received a tax cut.

But the claim that most of the benefits went to the upper class is technically true--though very misleading.

The upper class pays most of the taxes; so, naturally, it will receive (in simple dollars) the largest tax cut.

But the middle class would probably not begrudge this--if not for the continual disinformation campaign of the left, telling them that they have received nothing--nothing at all.

This is simply not true.

Or even close to being true.

[pjohns]

Can Jared or Donnie help?

Have you ever spoken of a previous president by his first name (and altered, yet, to sound like a mere child)--say, "Billie" (for Bill Clinton); "Georgie" (for George Bush); or "Barackie" (for Barack Obama)?

If not, then why the gratuitous disrespect for this particular president?

[Jeb!]

Silver acknowledges that Rasmussen's final national poll in 2016 was accurate, but also points out that their overall record is mediocre and rated them the 11th most accurate polling agency going into the 2018 mid-terms. Quinnipiac is more accurate and had a poll yesterday with Biden up 15 points. Monmouth is number 1 on 538's list and their most recent poll had Biden up 12 points.

The fact that Monmouth is #1 proves that 538 has no credibility. Monmouth's final poll in 2016 had Hillary Clinton winning the popular vote by 6%. That would make them one of the least accurate polls out there.

Quinnipiac is also a horrible pollster. There is no evidence to support them being more accurate than anyone. https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidentia...ReleaseID=2399

[pjohns]

Trump's opponents often underestimate his electoral strength.

Far too many people seem to forget that it is the Electoral College that determines the president--not the way that the popular vote goes. (Anyone who thinks otherwise should ask President Hillary Clinton about the matter--or, going back a bit further, President Al Gore.)

So people counting Trump out based on current polls may be in for a surprise.

As some people have pointed out--quite correctly--polls (even entirely accurate ones) are merely a snapshot in time--not a reliable prediction of the future.

Me, I think there is a lot of uncertainty and the election if far from decided, one way or the other, polls or not. I think the least important factor I'm looking at to preview the result of the Nov 3rd election is current polls. A lot can change in 4 months, especially if there is a big October surprise (such as the announcement that the Phase III has concluded for the AstraZeneca vaccine, it is safe and effective, and the FDA fast-tracked it for approval, and the 300 million doses the Trump administration has reserved with AstraZeneca for Americans in exchange for the HSS grant, are around the corner. Get the Moderna vaccine to work too, and it's icing on the cake. Get this to happen, and Trump will win re-election easily. On the other hand, if the vaccines fail phase III (which is perfectly possible) and Covid-19 gets a huge and damaging fall second wave, doom and gloom and discouragement will be next, the economy will suffer, people will feel despondent and will want a change in leadership to see if something less disastrous happens.

This is a very good analysis.

And "analysis" is the correct word. (Too many people--on both sides--are busily engaged in mere cheerleading. And I am not at all impressed by this. I much prefer the cerebral to the visceral.)