Trump has 91% chance of winning second term, professor’s model predicts.....

[MMC]

President Donald Trump has a 91 per cent chance of winning the November 2020 election, according to a political science professor who has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996.


“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth told Mediaite on Tuesday.


Mr Norpoth told the outlet that his model, which he curated in 1996, would have correctly predicted the outcome for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced.


The model calculates the winning candidate based on early presidential nominating contests and placing an emphasis on how much enthusiasm candidates are able to generate early in the nominating process, the professor said.




“The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall,” Mr Norpoth said.


If the prediction is correct, former vice president Joe Biden is placed at a severe disadvantage due to losses in his party’s first two presidential nominating contests in Iowa and New Hampshire.


The professor also said the model, which predicted Mr Trump’s election in 2016, worked partially by discounting opinion surveys......snip~


https://currently.att.yahoo.com/att/...213913320.html



Uh oh.....this guy is going to take major flak. The left will be foaming at the mouth ready to spread some more Wuhu.

[texan]

I posted this a month ago and appreciate it again.

In short he said follow the job and popularity numbers. The rest is noise. If they stay at the average levels of his last election he is likely to win.

[MMC]

I posted this a month ago and appreciate it again.

In short he said follow the job and popularity numbers. The rest is noise. If they stay at the average levels of his last election he is likely to win.

Yep and it was released again yesterday. Trump campaign should make sure it is released every month until Sept and then every week up til the election.

[texan]

He said all the covid handling etc is noise.....It only matters if it drives those other numbers down. Also, I believe the model has never missed an election in its about 100 years.


I just laid down $250 on Trump he is +135. That's a good odd to get. Biden and his campaign is high if he thinks he is way ahead. It is a dead heat.

No to mention that many many voters will not disclose how they will really vote. Most people are afraid to even wear a MAGA hat because of the violent democratic party. So they just won't answer or give safe information when polled from fear.

[MMC]

He said all the covid handling etc is noise.....It only matters if it drives those other numbers down. Also, I believe the model has never missed an election in its about 100 years.


I just laid down $250 on Trump he is +135. That's a good odd to get. Biden and his campaign is high if he thinks he is way ahead. It is a dead heat.

No to mention that many many voters will not disclose how they will really vote. Most people are afraid to even wear a MAGA hat because of the violent democratic party. So they just won't answer or give safe information when polled from fear.

People aren't going to forget that the Demos caused the country to get infected. Nor will they forget the Democrats causing Grandma and Grandpa to die. Nor will they forget Demos banning a drug that was saving peoples lives.

Nor will they forget the Democrats holding up relief for pet projects. Holding up small business relief causing the loss of a 100k businesses. Nor tanking the economy. Nor for allowing rioters and protestors damaging property. Nor for defunding cops and blaming them.


Its a shame people are afraid to wear a MAGA hat. I wear mine in Chicago just to see if any of the subhuman left wants to step up. After 2 years not one of those Deviates has jumped.

[Bo-4]

Meh, the professor is wrong. I think it's more like 110%!



https://www.realclearpolitics.com/el...020_president/

[texan]

So this is why the polling is suspect without even knowing the participant mix.

Just look at the pic they used on who would you vote for? Could there be any better indicator of the polling companies?

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ge/3234610001/

Capture.jpg

[pjohns]

I certainly hope that this prediction is correct, as Joe Biden would be, I think, a disaster as president.

The best thing that Donald Trump has going for him, I believe, is his incumbency. Since I was born, seven incumbents have won re-election (Dwight Eisenhower; Lyndon Johnson--although he was not elected to his first term; Richard Nixon; Ronald Reagan; Bill Clinton; George W. Bush; and Barack Obama), whereas only two have been defeated in that endeavor (Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush). And if the economy is good (which it was, prior to the outbreak of Covid-19), that probability rises.

But the fact that President Trump appears to be trailing--in some instances, significantly so--in many battleground states (including Florida), is troublesome. At least, it is to me.

If one dismissively "discount[s] opinion surveys," that may not be a real problem. But I am not quite so cavalier.

Still, I very much hope that President Trump defeats Joe Biden in November.

[Reason10]

Meh, the professor is wrong. I think it's more like 110%!



https://www.realclearpolitics.com/el...020_president/

Gee! That's exactly what the idiot Hillary voters said about this time in the election.

Dream on, Snowflake.

[Reason10]

I certainly hope that this prediction is correct, as Joe Biden would be, I think, a disaster as president.

The best thing that Donald Trump has going for him, I believe, is his incumbency. Since I was born, seven incumbents have won re-election (Dwight Eisenhower; Lyndon Johnson--although he was not elected to his first term; Richard Nixon; Ronald Reagan; Bill Clinton; George W. Bush; and Barack Obama), whereas only two have been defeated in that endeavor (Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush). And if the economy is good (which it was, prior to the outbreak of Covid-19), that probability rises.

But the fact that President Trump appears to be trailing--in some instances, significantly so--in many battleground states (including Florida), is troublesome. At least, it is to me.

If one dismissively "discount[s] opinion surveys," that may not be a real problem. But I am not quite so cavalier.

Still, I very much hope that President Trump defeats Joe Biden in November.

The best thing President Trump has going for him (besides the fact that he is the smartest and most competent president in history) is his track record. Three years of the GREATEST economic expansion in the history of America, so great that it took a Democrat Covid 9 shutdown to slow it down. And it is STILL coming back.