Snowflakes uneasy over tightening polls

[RichardMZhlubb]

FYI, the 538 polling average is up to Biden +8.3% today (from Biden +7.6% on August 6). More significant than the lead, however, are Biden's actual polling numbers. His average poll number is 50.1%. At this point in 2016, Clinton led by about 6%, but she was only polling around 44%. For Trump to win, he has to convert a significant number of people currently supporting Biden and that's a lot more difficult that converting undecided voters and third-party supporters..

[Jen]

Snowflakes love feeling uneasy. It's what they live for. They are constantly looking for something to be offended by.......... their favorite mood to be in is "offended". At least that's how it seems to me.

[testsubjectalpha]

the little things that give you away.

Snowflakes love feeling uneasy. It's what they live for. They are constantly looking for something to be offended by.......... their favorite mood to be in is "offended". At least that's how it seems to me.

[MMC]

Pollster John McLaughlin: Media Surveys Deliberately ...

www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3866501/posts
Biden +3 or +5 is about right, the rest are skewed by demographics. Hillary was in that same range about this time as was John Kerry at around +3 - +4. Biden will get a bump from VP pick and convention, maybe. Not sure because the convention is virtual and will not be the spectacle a real convention is.


Leftist Pollsters will overreach in giving Biden a bump for picking a VP.

[Reason10]

FYI, the 538 polling average is up to Biden +8.3% today (from Biden +7.6% on August 6). More significant than the lead, however, are Biden's actual polling numbers. His average poll number is 50.1%. At this point in 2016, Clinton led by about 6%, but she was only polling around 44%. For Trump to win, he has to convert a significant number of people currently supporting Biden and that's a lot more difficult that converting undecided voters and third-party supporters..

Yeah, right. And there is such a thing as the Tooth Fairy.

Snowflake, this is REALLY going to hit you hard when RACIST JOE loses.

Regardless of your total IGNORANCE at how the Democrats manipulate polls in an effort to dispirit Americans from voting, Joe is NOT going to be president. He is going to LOSE.


(Now I'm starting to think you are 16).

[pjohns]

FYI, the 538 polling average is up to Biden +8.3% today (from Biden +7.6% on August 6). More significant than the lead, however, are Biden's actual polling numbers. His average poll number is 50.1%. At this point in 2016, Clinton led by about 6%, but she was only polling around 44%. For Trump to win, he has to convert a significant number of people currently supporting Biden and that's a lot more difficult that converting undecided voters and third-party supporters..

Presumably, you are aware that the popular vote does elect a person to the presidency, right?

And you are also aware--again, presumably--that the popular vote is not a reasonable proxy for the electoral vote?

You would surely be on firmer ground if you were to cite those polls showing Joe Biden to be ahead in most of the swing states--where the election will definitely be decided.

Even there, however, it is uncertain just how reliable those polls may be.

No, I do not flippantly dismiss all polls, as Donald Trump seems to do.

But I am almost certain that they will tighten--in those swing states, as well--as Election Day draws closer. They just about always do.

And I simply do not know how many "shy" Trump voters might be out there--i.e. voters who do not wish to divulge, to pollsters, that they plan to vote for Donald Trump in November. If it is a huge number (as it apparently was in 2016), it could certainly lead to a Trump victory.

But I am truly agnostic as to the number--even the rough number--of these voters out there...

[RichardMZhlubb]

Presumably, you are aware that the popular vote does elect a person to the presidency, right?

And you are also aware--again, presumably--that the popular vote is not a reasonable proxy for the electoral vote?

You would surely be on firmer ground if you were to cite those polls showing Joe Biden to be ahead in most of the swing states--where the election will definitely be decided.

Even there, however, it is uncertain just how reliable those polls may be.

No, I do not flippantly dismiss all polls, as Donald Trump seems to do.

But I am almost certain that they will tighten--in those swing states, as well--as Election Day draws closer. They just about always do.

And I simply do not know how many "shy" Trump voters might be out there--i.e. voters who do not wish to divulge, to pollsters, that they plan to vote for Donald Trump in November. If it is a huge number (as it apparently was in 2016), it could certainly lead to a Trump victory.

But I am truly agnostic as to the number--even the rough number--of these voters out there...

There was no material “shy Trump voter” effect in 2016. National polling was pretty much spot on and the primary mistake in state polling in the Midwest was a failure to weight results by educational attainment. Pollsters undercounted white men without college degrees in their samples. The majority of polls in this cycle (and in 2018, when state polling was extremely accurate) have corrected that mistake.

[MMC]

The Trouble with Polling | National Affairs

nationalaffairs.com/publications/detail/the-trouble-with-polling
A second problem with a polling industry dependent on the media is that pollsters tend to focus too much on political questions and the obsessions of Washington insiders, rather than the concerns of ordinary Americans and other important topics and long-term trends. Polls today are infused with Washington's preoccupations.



Pollsters Fear Biden's Numbers Exaggerated in State Polls ...

www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2020/06/pollsters-fear-bidens-numbers...
Jun 17, 2020 · Courtney Kennedy, director of research at the Pew Research Center, says that the same dynamics that were in play during the 2016 contest are still in play during 2020. Pollsters may be undersampling demographics that turnout in higher numbers for Trump, and oversampling demographics that will turnout higher for Biden:



Media Manipulating 2020 Presidential Polls, And Here's How

intelligentuspolitics.com/media-manipulating-2020-presidential-polls
May 20, 2020 · Media Manipulating 2020 Presidential Polls Oversampling Democrats. The latest (May 13, 2020) CNN Presidential Election Poll oversampled Democrats by 8%, so Joe Biden starts off with an 8% advantage before any counting is done. The oversampling is not an accident or an error, it is media manipulation of the poll in order to ensure Biden leads Trump in the polls to discourage Trump …



Time to Face Facts: Polls Biased Towards Democrats ...

www.newsmax.com/johntantillo/gallup-biases-sampling/2020/01/06/id/948599
Jan 06, 2020 · Recently, the well respected and gold standard of poll science, the FiveThirtyEight site, showed a similarly Democratic bias in their sampling. Their poll findings of Jan. 3, 2020 — "A Majority Of Americans Think The Evidence Supports Trump’s Removal" — indicate the following responses to the poll questions regarding party affiliation:



I’m now convinced the polls are useless. Let me talk you ...

newstalk1130.iheart.com/featured/the-jay...
Jul 28, 2020 · Jul 28, 2020. Jay Weber Show transcript 7/28/20 6:10am. I’m now convinced the presidential polls are useless. Let me talk you off the ledge. Most outlets are polling 10-15 percent more Democrats than Republicans. ... And when I see NBC and the other networks oversampling democrats by ten percentage points and then claiming Biden is up by 12



Trump has a point about the polls - POLITICO

www.politico.com/news/2020/06/17/trump-polls-biden-324210
Jun 17, 2020 · 2020 elections. Trump has a point about the polls. Some pollsters are still grappling with the same problems that plagued battleground state surveys four years ago.


So much for all that BS that pollsters fixed the problems they had in 2016.

[Captdon]

Why would the Democrats be looking to impeach President Biden?

They wouldn't be a President Biden to impeach.

[Captdon]

10 never fails to bring the comedic relief. Its as if he makes multiple posts and threads (actually not as if but reality) uses large fonts and makes outlandish comments it means the object of his affection is going to get another four years to babble about his greatness. I like comedy as much as the next guy but the same joke over and over wears thin after awhile. Much like the joke who's face we see each day in orange splendor..........Rush never fails to entertain either. Drug addled as ever......

We aren't going to see any more kids fondled by Biden in the WH.