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Thread: China's navy is not a threat

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    Quote Originally Posted by RollingWave View Post

    China would actually have a pretty difficult time taking Taiwan under the current circumstances, and their base setup in the SE coast reflect that, it's more defensive than anything else. their ability to project power onto Taiwan on a moment's notice is very very limited (aka do it before the USA can react) . and obviously if they want to really put enough pieces on the table to seriously attack, then the US would have long have made the decision to either showdown or backdown (and it's rather unlikely to be the later). If there's a country that it really CAN invade and said country probably would have a hard time standing much of a chance right now it's Mongolia, but that's a different can of worms.

    As long as the USA doesn't officially (or secretly agree to) politically give up on Taiwan, the odds of China invading it is about the same as it's willingness to us nukes to do it.
    Does China have reason to invade Mongolia? Are there metals or oil there?

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Conley View Post
    Does China have reason to invade Mongolia? Are there metals or oil there?
    There's plenty of natural resource there yes, (search Mongolia Resource Boom and you'll see) but the political reason is also quite obvious, China claims Taiwan mostly based on the "it's part of China" claim, aka historical rights, but Taiwan was only part of the Chinese dynasty during the Qing era and very brifely in the Republic era, by the same standard, Mongolia is equally and probably more qualified as "Part of China" since it was a integral part of the Qing dynasty (Mongolian nobles were of high status in the period) and at least nominally part of the Republic era for a brief period as well.

    Of course, that's a different can of worm , the reason why the PRC have never seriously talked about retaking Mongolia is also a obvious political one, because Mongolia broke away during the Republic era mainly thx to the "help" (aka conspriacy) of the USSR, so after Mao won the civil war (which again the USSR had a hand in) it was obviously keen on not angering their biggest backer at that point. and even today there is still the general feeling that if they retake Mongolia not only would they scare the living shite out of everyone else in the region (and the US) but even really angering Russia, which is still obviously their biggest partner geo-strategically speaking.

    It is ironic of course, since there are more Mongolian Speakers and Mongolians living in China than in Mongolia, and also the old Mongolian writing system is only preserved in China, and mostly dead in Mongolia.

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    Thanks for the explanation RollingWave. What you say makes sense. To me Mongolia fits more with China than with the USSR (back in the day) but I can see how any Chinese action in the area would trigger a dramatic change in relations with Russia. I think Russia and China are uneasy bedfellows, united in their dislike of the U.S. but beyond that not a lot in common. Once those resources become more scare Mongolia could well be in play between the two powers.

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    Interesting stuff:

    "After a 16-hour drive under the piercing blue skies of Mongolia's southern Gobi, the first view of the world's newest mega-mine looks eerily like a desert aflame.

    Black clouds of dust billow up above the horizon from the pit at Tavan Tolgoi, where a swarm of bulldozers and mechanical diggers have clawed a 70-metre deep gash into the yellow hills.

    This resource – thought to be the biggest deposit of coking coal on the planet – is chewed out and transported away to China by a seemingly endless line of trucks that rumble across the plains in a convoy of dust.

    Until recently, this area of southern Mongolia was one of the world's last great wildernesses – a cold desert that is home to gazelle, wild ass and herders living a traditional nomadic existence.

    Today, however, it is the centre of the planet's greatest resource boom. Some are calling it "the last frontier", others "Minegolia". Whatever the name, this impoverished but remarkable nation in east Asia is on the brink of one of the most dramatic transformations in human history."

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/environmen...-mine-mongolia

    Another article I read called Mongolia China's Canada. It definitely sounds like there is huge potential there. Oh, and "wild ass" apparently as well.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Conley View Post
    Thanks for the explanation RollingWave. What you say makes sense. To me Mongolia fits more with China than with the USSR (back in the day) but I can see how any Chinese action in the area would trigger a dramatic change in relations with Russia. I think Russia and China are uneasy bedfellows, united in their dislike of the U.S. but beyond that not a lot in common. Once those resources become more scare Mongolia could well be in play between the two powers.
    Yeah, but that's basically the same thing with most country's international relationships, Japan doesn't exactly love the US bases in itself for example, but obviously would rather have that than having to face China themself in the future, likewise while obvouisly China and the US's geo-political interest have significant collisions, neither side would really want to end up in a total war for that . etc.. Hell even Israel and the US have conflict of interest in reality.

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    Yes. We were having a discussion a few days ago and one of our members was emphasizing how closely Russia and China work together but others were making the point it's almost always when they're coordinating against the United States. The topic of discussion was the U.N. Security Council resolution to condemn Assad in Syria which those two blocked.

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    Yeah, but from China's POV they essentially say they stand for non-interference of other country's domestic affairs and on that level they've been fairly consistent. though Syria's out of this topic's frame really, but suffice to say international diplomacy is almost never black and white, but almost always a really dark greyish realpolitk . This is true for everyone.

    Though on the brighter side, since WW2 the world have mostly managed to keep this balance act within reasonable degree, there have been considerablly less challenges to shatter it , and even today China and Russia is still playing well within the game rules. while those that are not (most noteably North Korea, and to some lesser extend Iran / Syria etc) are not nearly as serious as the events that preluded the World Wars for example
    Last edited by RollingWave; 02-07-2012 at 12:03 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by RollingWave View Post
    Yeah, but that's basically the same thing with most country's international relationships, Japan doesn't exactly love the US bases in itself for example, but obviously would rather have that than having to face China themself in the future, likewise while obvouisly China and the US's geo-political interest have significant collisions, neither side would really want to end up in a total war for that . etc.. Hell even Israel and the US have conflict of interest in reality.
    true. All nations have interests that conflict and it's naive to think in terms of "friendship" between states.
    Whoever criticizes capitalism, while approving immigration, whose working class is its first victim, had better shut up. Whoever criticizes immigration, while remaining silent about capitalism, should do the same.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Conley View Post
    Yes. We were having a discussion a few days ago and one of our members was emphasizing how closely Russia and China work together but others were making the point it's almost always when they're coordinating against the United States. The topic of discussion was the U.N. Security Council resolution to condemn Assad in Syria which those two blocked.
    Well thats what they are going to do and are doing now. Co-ordinating against the US. As they see whats taking place with Syria and Iran. which is why they will work even more closely together than ever before. Making the move to accept each others currency also knocks some barriers down.

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    Angry

    China Will Have Nuclear Subs in 2 Years...

    China submarines to soon carry nukes, draft U.S. report says
    WASHINGTON | Thu Nov 8, 2012 - New subs could be deployed within 2 years

    China appears to be within two years of deploying submarine-launched nuclear weapons, adding a new leg to its nuclear arsenal that should lead to arms-reduction talks, a draft report by a congressionally mandated U.S. commission says. China in the meantime remains "the most threatening" power in cyberspace and presents the largest challenge to U.S. supply chain integrity, the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission said in a draft of its 2012 report to the U.S. Congress.

    The deployment of a hard-to-track, submarine-launched leg of China's nuclear arsenal could have significant consequences in East Asia and beyond. It also could add to tensions between the United States and China, the world's two biggest economies. Any Chinese effort to ensure a retaliatory capability against a U.S. nuclear strike "would necessarily affect Indian and Russian perceptions about the potency of their own deterrent capabilities vis-à-vis China," the report said, for instance. That means China must "complete military mechanization and make major progress in full military IT (information technology) application by 2020," he said.

    To address a wide variety of security threats, "we must make major progress in modernizing national defense and the armed forces," Hu said.China is alone among the original nuclear weapons states to be expanding its nuclear forces, the report said. The others are the United States, Russia, Britain and France. Beijing is "on the cusp of attaining a credible nuclear triad of land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and air-dropped nuclear bombs," the report says. China has had a largely symbolic ballistic missile submarine capability for decades but is only now set to establish a "near-continuous at-sea strategic deterrent," the draft said.

    Chinese President Hu Jintao has made it a priority to modernize the country's navy. China launched its first aircraft carrier, purchased from Ukraine and then refurbished, in September. "Building strong national defense and powerful armed forces that are commensurate with China's international standing and meet the needs of its security and development interests is a strategic task of China's modernization drive," Hu said in a speech on Thursday at the opening of the Chinese Communist Party's once-every-five-years congress.

    ARMS CONTROL TALKS URGED

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