Eastern Ukraine and all of the Crimea is majority Russian. Additionally the port city of Sevastopol hosts the Russian Black Sea Fleet. I would imagine that if Russia uses force, the Crimea is the primary objective and then eastern Ukraine, and then likely stabilize a new boarder roughly equal to the ethnic breakdown.
The US can't counter this militarily- at least not without risking the loss or capture of our quick reaction battalion- which can be there in 18 hours or less depending on which division is currently on standby. If it is a battalion from the 82nd, they could conduct a parachute drop somewhere in the line of the Russian attack and hope that will stop the advance- just by being there. The Russians did it to us during the Bosnian War when they seized the airport.
The EU can't do anything. Even if they agreed to use military force, they would take months to organize and the Russians would likely smack them down.
Remember Georgia. That was Russia teaching its near-abroad that Europe and the US are not going to save you if we decide to act.
Last edited by Peter1469; 02-25-2014 at 06:43 AM.
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The Sage of Main Street (02-26-2014)