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Thread: Is Russia preparing to invade the Ukraine?

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    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    Yeah- if comes down to it, Russia may invade, but that's not going to sit well with the EU. He's got to consider just how important access to the Black Sea is for Russia military interests vs. the cost of the like western backlash.
    Western backlash?

    What are they going to do? Issue a statement STRONGLY disapproving the invasion (if it were to happen).

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    Eastern Ukraine and all of the Crimea is majority Russian. Additionally the port city of Sevastopol hosts the Russian Black Sea Fleet. I would imagine that if Russia uses force, the Crimea is the primary objective and then eastern Ukraine, and then likely stabilize a new boarder roughly equal to the ethnic breakdown.

    The US can't counter this militarily- at least not without risking the loss or capture of our quick reaction battalion- which can be there in 18 hours or less depending on which division is currently on standby. If it is a battalion from the 82nd, they could conduct a parachute drop somewhere in the line of the Russian attack and hope that will stop the advance- just by being there. The Russians did it to us during the Bosnian War when they seized the airport.

    The EU can't do anything. Even if they agreed to use military force, they would take months to organize and the Russians would likely smack them down.

    Remember Georgia. That was Russia teaching its near-abroad that Europe and the US are not going to save you if we decide to act.
    Last edited by Peter1469; 02-25-2014 at 07:43 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Green Arrow View Post
    You're about to go off-topic. I'd consider turning around before you tumble off a cliff.
    I always go off topic. Usually when the questions are embarrassing for conservatives to answer.

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    Don't tell me. Report it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beevee View Post
    I always go off topic. Usually when the questions are embarrassing for conservatives to answer.

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    I'm a moderator. The reports go to me.
    "We were taught under the old ethic that man's business on this earth was to look out for himself. That was the ethic of the jungle; the ethic of the wild beast. Take care of yourself, no matter what may become of your fellow man. Yes, I am my brother's keeper. I am under a moral obligation to him that is inspired, not by any maudlin sentimentality, but by the higher duty I owe to myself."
    - Eugene V. Debs (1855-1926), American labor leader

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    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    I wouldn't doubt if he is, but I believe that it's more about political posturing than anything else. If Russia mobilizes forces along the border maybe Putin believes that he can put pressure on incoming Ukrainian leaders to negotiate.
    Agreed. Putin will invade if he doesn't get his way, but the ramifications would hurt him globally so he will use arm-twisting tactics like intimidation and economic blackmail before outright military force.
    "There will always be dissident voices heard in the land, expressing opposition without alternatives, finding fault but never favor, perceiving gloom on every side and seeking influence without responsibility. Those voices are inevitable."

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    Quote Originally Posted by Max Rockatansky View Post
    Agreed. Putin will invade if he doesn't get his way, but the ramifications would hurt him globally so he will use arm-twisting tactics like intimidation and economic blackmail before outright military force.

    What harm came to Putin over Georgia?
    Alea iacta est

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    Quote Originally Posted by Peter1469 View Post
    What harm came to Putin over Georgia?
    It's created a strain on his relations with other countries and with his own people. Why do you think demonstrations like $#@! Riot and others happen?

    Nothing the Euros are willing to go to war over, but they have a long history of appeasement.
    "There will always be dissident voices heard in the land, expressing opposition without alternatives, finding fault but never favor, perceiving gloom on every side and seeking influence without responsibility. Those voices are inevitable."

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beevee View Post
    I always go off topic. Usually when the questions are embarrassing for conservatives to answer.

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    Green is a rookie and not conservative, more for distraction and entertainment purposes. And questions don't embarrass conservatives, we can answer any you put forth.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Green Arrow View Post
    I'm a moderator. The reports go to me.
    Well, there you go. I'm awaiting a sanction.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Max Rockatansky View Post
    It's created a strain on his relations with other countries and with his own people. Why do you think demonstrations like $#@! Riot and others happen?

    Nothing the Euros are willing to go to war over, but they have a long history of appeasement.
    They really need to do something about that as far too many of their military are retiring on pensions. They could always take a page from the US book though and solve the pension payments by sending them into wars they cannot win.

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