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Thread: It is not China, it is ROBOTS

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    It is not China, it is ROBOTS

    I have spoken frequently that Americans lost jobs to Robots.

    I offer this for your consideration.

    http://finance.townhall.com/columnis...tm_campaign=nl

    Is it Obvious Yet that Robots Cost Human Jobs?

    Mike Shedlock | Aug 19, 2014

    Technology Review has an interesting infographic on the Rising Use of Robots, and which sectors show the biggest increase in use.

    I broke up the infographic into a series of smaller ones for purposes of discussion, adding red, blue, and purple colored boxes in the following chart.

    Robot Usage Since 2009

    • In Europe, except Germany, robot usage is up and employment down.
    • In the US, South Korea, and Germany, robot usage is up and so is human employment.
    • In Japan robot usage and employment are both down.
    • Japan did not even benefit from a falling Yen.
    This shows the relative increase in demand for US and Korean cars, and the relative lack of demand for Japanese cars and European cars other than German cars.

    In the US, as long as cars sales remain strong, it appears auto jobs will stay. How long will that be?

    Robot Usage by Sector



    Note the robust use of robots in automotive and electronic. Contrast that with the three lowest usages of pharmaceuticals, food, and plastics.



    Given the huge numbers of people employed in food industries, especially fast food, a growth area for food robotics seems relatively easy to spot.

    Cost and performance of robots vs. cost of human labor is the key impediment to more robot use in food service.

    Social concerns may also be at play. Do people prefer social interaction and the occasional bad server to a robot for whom you have to leave no tip?

    Robot Sales



    Robot sales are up, and so is job growth in the US. On a comparative basis, job growth in the eurozone, except for Germany is stagnant.

    Point - Counterpoint

    A comment to the infographic by Cathal Haughian caught my eye. Haughian commented "Those countries that have high minimum wages automate first. I had a tour of Mc Donald's newest Chicken factory, in China, this year. It employed a third of the workforce of a similar plant in the US. It's fully automated. Slaughters 5 million chickens per day. Robots the size of a two story house. Amazing. The Robot revolution will break the back of our economic system by 2020, I'd bet."

    Technology Review editor replied "No it's actually more ambiguous than that, obviously: sometimes robots create entirely new jobs in new industries; sometimes they allow reallocation of labor to more productive uses; sometimes they sustain industries that would otherwise disappear. The truth is that no one knows whether we are witnessing a long-term restructuring of employment (in the sense that "full employment" may be a lower percentage of the population in industrialized nations) - and anyone who tells you otherwise is an ideologue on one side or another of this debate."

    I side with the editor. Over the long haul, technology creates jobs. The problem being "over the long haul".

    Why Robots?

    It's obvious robots increase productivity.

    But that is not the only force in play. The Fed (central banks in general) have cheapened the cost of money so much that some of the increase in use of robots is due entirely to cheap money.

    Moreover, the push for rising minimum wages has done the same. Set the minimum wage at $20 per hour, and I bet you see far more robots, in far more places than you do today.

    Looking for Someone to Blame?

    Technology improvements are an inherently good thing. They lower prices, increase standards of living, and give us more free time.

    Yet, if robot usage is artificially high thereby costing human jobs (and it likely is), blame the Fed for poor economic policy and blame Congress for poor fiscal policy. Don't blame the robots or the companies that use them.

    Different This Time?

    Some claim it's different this time, that robots are going to take your job no matter what it is.

    Is it that simple?

    For a robust discussion from multiple angles, including a couple of solutions, one of them grim, please see It's Different This Time: Humans Need Not Apply; Two Possible Solutions.

    Mike "Mish" Shedlock

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    Government makes employing people an expensive hassle.

    Sure helps encourage those robots.
    “Any man who thinks he can be happy and prosperous by letting the government take care of him had better take a closer look at the American Indian.”. Henry Ford

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    Granny says, "Dat's right - how people gonna earn money to eat?...

    Impact of job-stealing robots a growing concern at Davos
    January 20, 2017 - Open markets and global trade have been blamed for job losses over the last decade, but global CEOs say the real culprits are increasingly machines.
    And while business leaders gathered at the annual World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos relish the productivity gains technology can bring, they warned this week that the collateral damage to jobs needs to be addressed more seriously. From taxi drivers to healthcare professionals, technologies such as robotics, driverless cars, artificial intelligence and 3-D printing mean more and more types of jobs are at risk. Adidas , for example, aims to use 3-D printing in the manufacture of some running shoes. "Jobs will be lost, jobs will evolve and this revolution is going to be ageless, it's going to be classless and it's going to affect everyone," said Meg Whitman, chief executive of Hewlett Packard Enterprise .


    An attendee communicate with SARA a robot assisstant during a presentation at the WEF in Davos

    So while some supporters of Donald Trump and Brexit may hope new government policies will bring lost jobs back to America's Rust Belt or Britain's industrial north, economists estimate 86 percent of U.S. manufacturing job losses are actually down to productivity, according to the WEF's annual risks report. "Technology is the big issue and we don't acknowledge that," Mark Weinberger, chairman of consultancy EY, said on Thursday, arguing there was a tendency to always blame trading partners. The political backdrop is prompting CEOs to take more seriously the challenge of long-life training of workforces to keep up with the exponential growth of technological advances. "I think what we're reaching now is a time when we may have to find alternative careers through our lifetime," Microsoft Chief Executive Satya Nadella told Reuters.


    An attendee communicate with SARA, a socially aware robot assisstant, during a presentation at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland

    Over the last decade, more jobs have been lost to technology than any other factor, and John Drzik, head of global risk at insurance broker Marsh, expects more of the same. "That is going to raise challenges, particularly given the political context," Drzik, who helped compile the WEF report, said. Compared to clamping down on immigration by tightening borders, dealing with the impact of technology destroying jobs is something that is perhaps even less easily controlled. For while many advanced technologies remain more expensive than low- or medium-skilled labor in the near term, the shift is likely to accelerate as costs come down.

    WIDENING GAP

    Technological advancements require governments, businesses and academic institutions to develop more educated and highly skilled workforces, executives in Davos said. But this shift to skilled workers also widens the income gap and fuels growing inequality. Jonas Prising, CEO of staffing firm ManpowerGroup , noted that U.S. unemployment is only about 2 to 2.5 percent among college-educated people but 9 or 10 percent among those with low or no skills. "The idea that we would ban automation as part of an evolution within the manufacturing industry, is not really part of the discussion," Prising said. He pointed to policies in countries like Denmark and Italy, where there is a focus on employability of workers. "If we don't own responsibility (for the problem of displaced workers), it's only going to get bigger," Procter & Gamble Chief Executive David Taylor said.

    BRAWN AND BRAIN

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    Robot truckers vs. Human drivers...

    Will Robot Truckers Take Jobs from Human Drivers?
    January 18, 2017 - The 3.5 million Americans who drive trucks for a living may face growing competition for jobs as technology improves and self-driving or autonomous trucks that don't need human operators become more common.
    Researchers say a similar wave of automation and robotics displaced most of the 5 million people who lost manufacturing jobs over the past few years. Frustration and fear from that drastic change helped spark an angry movement that upended U.S. politics. Some experts say it will be years before a significant number of robot trucks are on the roads, as engineers and scientists work on technical, regulatory, and safety concerns while seeking public acceptance of this evolving technology. But others point out that autonomous trucks already operate in mines, while robotic cars run races up mountains. Automotive and computer firms are working to improve the sensors and processors needed for the task. "We are not that far from the ultimate vision of a completely self-driving car," said Chan Lieu, a former official of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.


    TV crews film the Actros autonomous truck by Mercedes-Benz near Stuttgart, Germany

    Researchers say the same economic pressures that boosted automation in factories also promote robot truckers, who are likely to be less expensive than human drivers. Robots don't need breaks, join unions, ask for raises, demand overtime pay, file lawsuits, or show up with a hangover. Many Americans say they are worried about the safety of robotic vehicles, but government statistics show 94 percent of road accidents are due to human error. That is causing some worries for the insurance industry, which is trying to figure out how to adjust premiums for an unprecedented, but probably safer, future.

    Jobs

    In the meantime, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen expects companies will continue to use more robots. She urges governments and companies to do more to help displaced humans. "Most economists and policymakers recognize that it's important to provide ways for workers who were harmed by these kinds of developments to be retrained for jobs so that they can succeed in the economy," she said. Surprisingly, at a time when lost jobs are a major economic and political issue, many high-paying technical positions go unfilled. Economist Ken Simonson of the Associated General Contractors of America says companies can't find plumbers, electricians, pipefitters and others. "We are going to continue to see a lot of industries struggling to find already qualified workers or to bring new entrants up to the skill level that they need to get things done," he said.


    More automation at factories across the globe means fewer people on the production line.

    For many people, apprenticeships offer a way to learn the new kinds of skills that help people find and keep jobs in a workplace of growing technical complexity. Newport News Shipbuilding has been teaching apprentices for nearly a century, and has a strong record of employing the program's graduates. But researcher David Wiczer of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis says other programs have mixed results. "Every time you take someone from one occupation to another, the level of risk magnifies,” he said. “It's much safer to switch one employer from the other and do the same thing you've been doing."


    Shipyard workers weld a time capsule aboard the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford, under construction at Newport News Shipbuilding in Newport News, Virginia

    In a TEDx talk, MIT economist David Autor says American workers made a big shift from agriculture to manufacturing in the late 1800s and early 1900s. "We have faced equally momentous economic transformations in the past and come through them successfully," he said. But workers in this latest economic transition may be in for a bumpy ride, as scholars say previous major changes were wrenching and took many years.

    http://www.voanews.com/a/will-robot-...s/3676415.html

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    Robots to begin replacing teachers...

    'Inspirational' robots to begin replacing teachers within 10 years
    11 September 2017 • Robots will begin replacing teachers in the classroom within the next ten years as part of a revolution in one-to-one learning, a leading educationalist has predicted.
    Sir Anthony Seldon, Vice-Chancellor of the University of Buckingham, said intelligent machines that adapt to suit the learning styles of individual children will soon render traditional academic teaching all but redundant. The former Master of Wellington College said programmes currently being developed in Silicon Valley will learn to read the brains and facial expressions of pupils, adapting the method of communication to what works best for them.

    The new era of automated teaching promises an end to grouping children by year, as the personalised nature of the robots will enable pupils to learn new material at their own pace, rather than as part of a class. "It will open up the possibility of an Eton or Wellington-style education for all,” Sir Anthony said. "Everyone can have the very best teacher and it's completely personalised; the software you're working with will be with you throughout your education journey.” He warned, however, that the new technology would have to be carefully introduced to avoid “infantilising” pupils and teachers.

    As part of robot-led learning, teachers would adopt the role of “overseers”, monitoring the progress of individual pupils, leading non-academic activities and providing pastoral support, Sir Anthony said. The efficiency of automated teaching would also mean that only 30 per cent of school time will be spent in class. A contemporary historian who has written biographies of David Cameron, Tony Blair, John Major and Gordon Brown, Sir Anthony heralds the new educational era in a book, The Fourth Revolution", due out next year. “The impact is going to be massive” he said. “This is beyond anything that we've seen in the industrial revolution or since with any other new technology.”

    The first revolution is understood to consist of learning the basics of survival - foraging, hunting, growing crops and building shelters. The second involved the first organised sharing of knowledge and the third was marked by the invention of printing. Automated teaching machines would be “extraordinarily inspirational”, Sir Anthony said. "You'll still have the humans there walking around during school time, but in fact the inspiration in terms of intellectual excitement will come from the lighting-up of the brain which the machines will be superbly well-geared for. "The machines will know what it is that most excites you and gives you a natural level of challenge that is not too hard or too easy, but just right for you." He expected the National Union of Teachers to be "very alarmed" by the prospect.

    MORE

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    Quote Originally Posted by waltky View Post
    Robots to begin replacing teachers...

    'Inspirational' robots to begin replacing teachers within 10 years
    11 September 2017 • Robots will begin replacing teachers in the classroom within the next ten years as part of a revolution in one-to-one learning, a leading educationalist has predicted.
    Spellcheck ruined everybody's ability to spell, so putting software in charge of the rest of the learning process does not seem like the brightest idea.

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    Not sure why everyone seems to think automation simply replaces human jobs. It displaces them.

    Automation replaced 800,000 workers… then created 3.5 million new jobs

    ...Here’s an example. A Deloitte study of automation in the U.K. found that 800,000 low-skilled jobs were eliminated as the result of AI and other automation technologies. But get this: 3.5 million new jobs were created as well, and those jobs paid on average nearly $13,000 more per year than the ones that were lost.

    Positive, worker-friendly outcomes like this illustrate a more complete range of possibilities for automation. Technology is changing the way we work — that’s not in dispute. These changes can improve people’s lives and lead to a more creative, intellectually engaged workforce. AI often means that employees can spend more time on complex tasks for which they are uniquely suited, like interacting with customers or brainstorming innovative new campaigns.

    Over the long term, creativity is what will distinguish humans from machines. And not just the capacity for creative work, but the ability to reimagine what jobs might look like in the near future and beyond. To that end, here are three examples of companies using automation to create jobs and help their leaders develop better businesses.

    ...
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