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Thread: China’s Rise, America’s Fall

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    China’s Rise, America’s Fall

    I found this thoughtful, informative and well written...recommended.

    Which superpower is more threatened by its “extractive elites”?


    By Ron Unz | April 18, 2012
    The rise of China surely ranks among the most important world developments of the last 100 years. With America still trapped in its fifth year of economic hardship, and the Chinese economy poised to surpass our own before the end of this decade, China looms very large on the horizon. We are living in the early years of what journalists once dubbed “The Pacific Century,” yet there are worrisome signs it may instead become known as “The Chinese Century.”

    But does the Chinese giant have feet of clay? In a recently published book, Why Nations Fail, economists Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson characterize China’s ruling elites as “extractive”—parasitic and corrupt—and predict that Chinese economic growth will soon falter and decline, while America’s “inclusive” governing institutions have taken us from strength to strength. They argue that a country governed as a one-party state, without the free media or checks and balances of our own democratic system, cannot long prosper in the modern world. The glowing tributes this book has received from a vast array of America’s most prominent public intellectuals, including six Nobel laureates in economics, testifies to the widespread popularity of this optimistic message.

    Yet do the facts about China and America really warrant this conclusion?

    China Shakes the World

    By the late 1970s, three decades of Communist central planning had managed to increase China’s production at a respectable rate, but with tremendous fits and starts, and often at a terrible cost: 35 million or more Chinese had starved to death during the disastrous 1959–1961 famine caused by Mao’s forced industrialization policy of the Great Leap Forward.

    China’s population had also grown very rapidly during this period, so the typical standard of living had improved only slightly, perhaps 2 percent per year between 1958 and 1978, and this from an extremely low base. Adjusted for purchasing power, most Chinese in 1980 had an income 60–70 percent below that of the citizens in other major Third World countries such as Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Kenya, none of which were considered great economic success stories. In those days, even Haitians were far wealthier than Chinese.


    All this began to change very rapidly once Deng Xiaoping initiated his free-market reforms in 1978, first throughout the countryside and eventually in the smaller industrial enterprises of the coastal provinces. By 1985, The Economist ran a cover story praising China’s 700,000,000 peasants for having doubled their agricultural production in just seven years, an achievement almost unprecedented in world history. Meanwhile, China’s newly adopted one-child policy, despite its considerable unpopularity, had sharply reduced population growth rates in a country possessing relatively little arable land.

    A combination of slowing population growth and rapidly accelerating economic output has obvious implications for national prosperity. During the three decades to 2010, China achieved perhaps the most rapid sustained rate of economic development in the history of the human species, with its real economy growing almost 40-fold between 1978 and 2010. In 1978, America’s economy was 15 times larger, but according to most international estimates, China is now set to surpass America’s total economic output within just another few years.

    Furthermore, the vast majority of China’s newly created economic wealth has flowed to ordinary Chinese workers, who have moved from oxen and bicycles to the verge of automobiles in just a single generation. While median American incomes have been stagnant for almost forty years, those in China have nearly doubled every decade, with the real wages of workers outside the farm-sector rising about 150 percent over the last ten years alone. The Chinese of 1980 were desperately poor compared to Pakistanis, Nigerians, or Kenyans; but today, they are several times wealthier, representing more than a tenfold shift in relative income.

    A World Bank report recently highlighted the huge drop in global poverty rates from 1980 to 2008, but critics noted that over 100 percent of that decline came from China alone: the number of Chinese living in dire poverty fell by a remarkable 662 million, while the impoverished population in the rest of the world actually rose by 13 million. And although India is often paired with China in the Western media, a large fraction of Indians have actually grown poorer over time. The bottom half of India’s still rapidly growing population has seen its daily caloric intake steadily decline for the last 30 years, with half of all children under five now being malnourished.

    Read the rest...

    http://www.theamericanconservative.c...americas-fall/

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    RollingWave's Avatar Senior Member
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    American really isn't "falling" per say, it's just that China's relative rise is pretty crazy.

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    I disagree...this article does a good job of explaining the realities rather than echoing the hype.

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    For those that may be interested I was referred to this article by an article at Counterpunch...

    Weekend Edition April 20-22, 2012

    Unplugging Americans From The Matrix


    by PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS

    Americans, the British, and Western Europeans are accustomed to thinking of themselves as the representatives of freedom, democracy, and morality in the world. The West passes judgment on the rest of the world as if the West is God and the rest of the world are barbarians in need of chastisement, invasion, and occupation. As readers know, from time to time I raise questions about the validity of the West’s extreme hubris.

    China is often a country about which Washington’s moralists get on their high horse.

    However, China’s “authoritarian” government is actually more responsive to its people than America’s “elected democratic” government. Moreover, however incomplete on paper the civil liberties of China’s people, the Chinese government has not declared that it can violate with impunity whatever rights Chinese citizens have. And it is not China that is running torture prisons all over the globe.

    For some time I have had in mind a realistic comparison of the two countries instead of the standard propagandistic comparison, but Ron Unz has beat me to the task twice). Unz provides a chance for an education. Don’t miss it.

    (for reasons I don't understand I'm unable to provide a link so you'll have to type it in your search bar if you're interested in reading the entire article. It's worth the effort in my opinion.)

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    China has some obstacles to overcome.
    1. They have a housing bubble that makes ours look like peanuts.
    2. They have an export economy. Citizens in the coastal areas are enjoying the fruits of this and are creating a strong middle class. But the vast majority of Chinese live in the interior and they are dirt poor. They will prevent China's growth unless they can be pushed up at least towards the middle class. This can't be done under an export economy model- especially in a global economic downturn. If China cannot manage a transition from an export economy to a consumer economy, they will not rise much further.

    China is also a land power. They have no ability to project power.

    China is destined to be a regional power. IMO that is it.

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    So the article had no newz for you then I take it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by keyser soze View Post
    So the article had no newz for you then I take it.
    Oh no, it was a very interesting article. I added my 3 cents.

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    Oh, then you read about the plan to build a huge amount of housing and how they're building infrastructure like high speed rail...6,000 miles worth...makes us look like we're standing still. Oh, we ARE standing still...for like 30+ years...

    To your other point about bringing up the dirt poor...they have and are moving into a consumer economy as well. I found the articles comparison of type of government and the human results quite good...especially the part about how corrupt our government is and why.
    Last edited by keyser soze; 04-24-2012 at 01:17 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by keyser soze View Post
    Oh, then you read about the plan to build a huge amount of housing and how they're building infrastructure like high speed rail...6,000 miles worth...makes us look like we're standing still. Oh, we ARE standing still...for like 30+ years...

    Yes. And I did mention the really really big housing bubble in my initial comment.

    Check this out.

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    keyser soze (04-24-2012)

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    Of course you did and the article addresses it as well with their solution.

    I also found the comparison of population growth between us and them very interesting...they have achieved stability in their population growth where ours is quite high...

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