The rodents and their fleas were thought to have spread a series of outbreaks in 14th-19th Century Europe. But a team from the universities of Oslo and Ferrara now says the first, the Black Death, can be "largely ascribed to human fleas and body lice". The study, in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, uses records of its pattern and scale. The Black Death claimed an estimated 25 million lives, more than a third of Europe's population, between 1347 and 1351. "We have good mortality data from outbreaks in nine cities in Europe," Prof Nils Stenseth, from the University of Oslo, told BBC News. "So we could construct models of the disease dynamics [there]."
The bite of rat-borne fleas infected with the bubonic plague has been blamed for disease transmission during the medieval pandemic
He and his colleagues then simulated disease outbreaks in each of these cities, creating three models where the disease was spread by:
* rats
* airborne transmission
* fleas and lice that live on humans and their clothes
In seven out of the nine cities studied, the "human parasite model" was a much better match for the pattern of the outbreak. It mirrored how quickly it spread and how many people it affected. "The conclusion was very clear," said Prof Stenseth. "The lice model fits best." "It would be unlikely to spread as fast as it did if it was transmitted by rats. "It would have to go through this extra loop of the rats, rather than being spread from person to person."
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Originally Posted by Captain Obvious
