H7N9 the next flu pandemic?

[Peter1469]

H7N9 the next flu pandemic?

Another strain of the flu is gaining steam. Will it be the next pandemic?

Since May of this year, 440 Chinese people have been infected with a new strain of influenza subtype H7N9, and 122 of them have died. Though the case-fatality rate suggested by this data is greatly inflated by asymptomatic and mild (and hence, unreported) cases, a new analysis in Trends in Microbiology suggests that the virus has the potential to become the next influenza pandemic.
Where did this new H7N9 strain come from? Genetic analyses suggest that four different avian influenza viruses swapped genes in a process known as "reassortment." (See figure.)

[waltky]

Granny says, "Dat's right - stay away from dem sneezin' monkeys like onna Letterman show...

WHO: World Must Not Miss Early Signals of Any Flu Pandemic
January 23, 2017 — The World Health Organization called on all countries on Monday to monitor closely outbreaks of deadly avian influenza in birds and poultry and to report promptly any human cases that could signal the start of a flu pandemic.

Different strains of bird flu have been spreading across Europe and Asia since late last year, leading to large-scale slaughtering of poultry in certain countries and some human deaths in China. Experts fear the virus could mutate to spread more easily among people. Nearly 40 countries have reported new outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza in poultry or wild birds since November, according to the WHO. "The rapidly expanding geographical distribution of these outbreaks and the number of virus strains currently co-circulating have put WHO on high alert," Margaret Chan told the start of the U.N. agency's executive board. The world is better prepared for the next influenza pandemic - following the H1N1 "mild" pandemic in 2009-2010 - "but not at all well enough", she said.

Chan said that under an agreement with drug makers, in return for countries sharing virus samples from which a pandemic vaccine would be derived, WHO is promised 350 million doses of vaccine for distribution. "We cannot allow so many countries to be without tools," Chan later told Reuters. "Remember, it takes four to six months to get the vaccine." China has had a "sudden and steep increase" in human cases of H7N9 since December and the WHO has not been able to rule out limited human-to-human spread in two clusters of cases although no sustained spread has been detected thus far, she said.

Officials in protective gears cull chickens in the snow at a poultry farm after a highly virulent strain of bird flu was detected in Yamagata in Gifu Prefecture, central Japan

Under the International Health Regulations, WHO's 194 member states are required to detect and report human cases promptly, Chan said, adding: "We cannot afford to miss the early signals." China's delegation, led by Zhang Yang of the National Health and Family Planning Commission, told the meeting China would carry out its obligations on communicating and responding to any outbreaks. "Currently H7N9 overall statistics remain the same," Zhang said. "China will continue to strengthen its cooperation and exchange with WHO in this regard."

David Nabarro, an international public health expert and one of six candidates to succeed Chan in the top WHO post, said that addressing the threat of avian flu jumping the barrier to pose a serious threat to humans was a "central priority". "This group of viruses are persistent in moving between wild birds and poultry. We should always have a good high guard and never be complacent," Nabarro, a former U.N. coordinator for avian and human influenza, told Reuters.

http://www.voanews.com/a/3688559.html

[Peter1469]

There have been some chicken culls in South America and Asia so far this year.

[donttread]

H7N9 the next flu pandemic?

Another strain of the flu is gaining steam. Will it be the next pandemic?

Far worse yet is "Sheep Flu" where the mere mention of words or phrases like "terrorist" , "cold war", "commie red rats" turn people into blindly devoted sheep with no proof or substaniation. Someties indefintiely.

[waltky]

Granny says it's one o' dem end time pestilences...

Deadly Flu Mutation Could Lead to Worst Pandemic in History
4/11/2017 - Leading scientists in the field of deadly flu epidemics are worried about what could be the granddaddy of them all, and say it could be right around the corner.

They're talking about the bird flu, also known as H7N9. Experts say it could be as bad as, or even more severe, than the worst global pandemic in recorded history. That was the Spanish flu outbreak of 1918, which killed an estimated 40 million people. That flu also originated in birds. Alarms began sounding in the medical research community when scientists observed the bird flu was rapidly mutating and killing chickens in China. That's scary because until now, when chickens got the bird flu it was so mild, the chickens generally did not die from it. Now, however, the virus is far stronger and deadlier. Not only are chickens dying, they're dying fast, sometimes in just one day, and they're spreading it to other fowl.

The bird flu outbreak among chickens is ominous for humans. "It makes us queasy," former global director of the World Health Organization's Influenza Program, Keiji Fukuda, told NPR, "Because it's a very visible way to see these viruses as restless. Some of these changes are dead-end, but some are not. And this genetic mutation is not. It's becoming more lethal for poultry. For people? We're not sure." Oftentimes flu viruses that circulate among animals are passed to people. That's already happening in China with the H7N9 bird flu strain. When people catch the bird flu from chickens, about a third of the humans die. It's already killed nearly 200 people this flu season (September to March). That's more deaths than in any single season since when it was first discovered in humans four years ago.

Leading scientists in the field of deadly flu epidemics are worried about what could be the granddaddy of them all, and say it could be right around the corner.

When it comes to containing flu outbreaks, the smartest virologists in the world are stumped by this one. Guan Yi who was instrumental in minimizing the swine flu, and SARS is pessimistic about this aggressive bird flu, mainly because it is changing so fast. "We're trying our best, but we still can't control this virus," He said, "It's too late for us to eradicate it." This new virus presents a good-news, bad-news scenario.

The good news:

* The virus is easy to diagnose, and vaccines for chickens can be manufactured and administered quickly.
* Big cities like Shanghai have quickly shut down their live poultry markets when human cases are on the rise, which can keep it from spreading.

The bad news:

* New mutations of the bird flu virus are typically discovered in China, the site of many small poultry farms run by farmers who aren't well-educated about the threat of bird flu and who often hide evidence of infected birds because they are afraid of losing income.
* Worldwide travel, particularly on airplanes, means outbreaks spread very rapidly.

http://www.charismanews.com/world/64...mic-in-history

[donttread]

Granny says it's one o' dem end time pestilences...

Deadly Flu Mutation Could Lead to Worst Pandemic in History
4/11/2017 - Leading scientists in the field of deadly flu epidemics are worried about what could be the granddaddy of them all, and say it could be right around the corner.

Mother Earth keeps trying to take a flea bath as she does when other species over populate. So far we've been a step ahead of her. So far

[waltky]

Granny says, "Dat's right - it's the end times - we all gonna die...

Study: Three Mutations Could Make Bird Flu a Potential Pandemic
June 15, 2017 — Scientists have identified three mutations that, if they occurred at the same time in nature, could turn a strain of bird flu now circulating in China into a potential pandemic virus that could spread among people.

The flu strain, known as H7N9, now mostly infects birds but it has infected at least 779 people in outbreaks in and around China, mainly related to poultry markets. The World Health Organization said earlier this year that all bird flu viruses need constant monitoring, warning that their constantly changing nature makes them "a persistent and significant threat to public health." At the moment, the H7N9 virus does not have the capability to spread sustainably from person to person. But scientists are worried it could at any time mutate into a form that does.


To assess this risk, researchers led by James Paulson of the Scripps Research Institute in California looked at mutations that could potentially take place in the genome of the H7N9 virus. They focused on the H7 hemagglutanin, a protein on the flu virus surface that allows it to latch onto host cells. The team's findings, published in the journal PLoS Pathogens on Thursday, showed that in laboratory tests, mutations in three amino acids made the virus more able to bind to human cells — suggesting these changes are key to making the virus more dangerous to people.

Health officers cull poultry at a wholesale market, as trade in live poultry is suspended after a spot check at a local street market revealed the presence of H7N9 bird flu virus, in Hong Kong

Scientists not directly involved in this study said its findings were important, but should not cause immediate alarm. "This study will help us to monitor the risk posed by bird flu in a more informed way, and increasing our knowledge of which changes in bird flu viruses could be potentially dangerous will be very useful in surveillance," said Fiona Culley, an expert in respiratory immunology at Imperial College London. She noted that while "some of the individual mutations have been seen naturally, ... these combinations of mutations have not," and added: "The chances of all three occurring together is relatively low."


Wendy Barclay, a virologist and flu specialist also at Imperial, said the study's findings were important in showing why H7N9 bird flu should be kept under intense surveillance. "These studies keep H7N9 virus high on the list of viruses we should be concerned about," she said. "The more people infected, the higher the chance that the lethal combination of mutations could occur."


https://www.voanews.com/a/study-thre...c/3902857.html

[rcfieldz]

Don't have sex with roosters?

[waltky]

Chinese urban planning for Shanghai...

China caps Shanghai's population at 25 million to prevent 'big city disease'
Dec. 27, 2017 -- The Chinese government announced this week that it will cap the population of Shanghai at 25 million by 2035 to prevent the country's largest city from catching "big city disease."

The government defined the "disease" as when a megacity has too much pollution, traffic and s shortage of public services like education and medical care. The State Council said that by 2035, the number of permanent residents in Shanghai will be limited to 25 million people and total construction land will be no more than 3,200 square kilometers, according to Xinhua. The plan is to make Shanghai an "excellent global city," the State Council said.


Shanghai would become the second city to receive a cap on its population. In September, the Chinese government announced Beijing's population will cap at 23 million by 2020. Beijing's current population is about 22 million. Although the Chinese government appears to have been able to curb population growth in Beijing largely by cracking down on migrant workers, some experts don't believe a 25 million cap in Shanghai will be possible.

Chinese workers and pensioners in Shanghai stand outside a government office after not being paid on time on January 31, 2015. This week, the Chinese government announced it would cap Shanghai's population at 25 million to avoid strains on social services.

However, some experts don't believe it's possible for Shanghai to cap at 25 million by 2030 since official population number is already at 24.19 million, with unofficial estimates putting it closer to 30 million. The population control effort could also impact the city's thriving economy. "It will be a very difficult target to achieve if Shanghai continues to position itself as this center for various sectors - a financial hub, an innovation hub," Lu Jiehua, a sociology professor at Peking University, told the South China Morning Post.


Chen Youhua, a sociology professor at Nanjing University, told SCMP a 25 million cap would be "pointless." "Curbing the population is unimaginable, and it's also detrimental ... It will ruin a city's development prospects, even in Shanghai," Chen said. "Controlling the population in cities such as Beijing and Shanghai is more of a political decision."


https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-N...&utm_medium=12

[Kacper]

Think we are supposed to get something similar to the most recent Australian flu strain this year which the flu shots don't really much work on, "but you should get it anyway."