It is a proud boast that, among my friends, I have gained a reputation over the last six years for making highly accurate election predictions. So far I have been right (yes I keep track) in more than 98% of all cases. That said, I don't typically offer forecasts on outcomes this early in the game because too much can change between now and election day. It should therefore be understood that the following predictions for the 2012 U.S. election cycle are subject to change...like say until the week before election day. However, I feel fairly confident at this point to give a general and tentative prediction.
THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Definite Obama states:
1. Maine
2. Rhode Island
3. Vermont
4. Massachusetts
5. Connecticut
6. New York
7. New Jersey
8. Delaware
9. Pennsylvania
10. Maryland
11. Virginia
12. Ohio
13. Michigan
14. Illinois
15. Minnesota
16. New Mexico
17. Washington
18. Oregon
19. California
20. Hawaii
Likely Obama states:
21. New Hampshire
22. Florida
23. Nevada
Definite Romney states:
1. North Carolina
2. South Carolina
3. West Virgina
4. Kentucky
5. Tennessee
6. Georgia
7. Indiana
8. Alabama
9. Mississippi
10. Missouri
11. Arkansas
12. Louisiana
13. North Dakota
14. South Dakota
15. Nebraska
16. Kansas
17. Oklahoma
18. Texas
19. Montana
20. Wyoming
21. Utah
22. Arizona
23. Idaho
24. Alaska
Pure Tossups:
1. Wisconsin
2. Iowa
3. Colorado
According to my forecast above...
Current Scenario (Electoral Votes) EXCLUDING Likely Obama States:
Obama: 268
Romney: 206
Undecided: 64
Current Scenario (Electoral Votes) INCLUDING Likely Obama States:
Obama: 307
Romney: 206
Undecided: 25
Worst Case Scenario (Electoral Votes):
Romney: 270 <-- MUST win Florida, though not likely to; no other way to victory for Romney.
Obama: 268
Best Case Scenario (Electoral Votes):
Obama: 332
Romney: 206
Notes: Obama's almost certainly going to win re-election, in my opinion. Romney has to win many more undecided states than the president does and he absolutely MUST win Florida, which he presently is not. The only people who still think of Ohio as contested are the ones relying on skewed Rasmussen polls. All the other ones show Obama with a clear lead there (5 to 7 points) and pulling away. The only people who still think of Virginia as contested are those who haven't factored in Virgil Goode's already-shown ability to siphon off several percentage points from Romney's total. The fact that the said Constitution Party candidate is running such a powerful third party campaign in Virginia virtually guarantees Obama victory there. That leaves Florida as decisive for Romney. If he loses Florida then he has no chance of winning the presidency; no path to the magic 270 electoral votes. Nevada is also moving more solidly in Obama's direction with some pollsters now removing it from the "tossup" category. And Gary Johnson's campaign on the Libertarian Party ticket could prove at least a minor problem for Romney in both Nevada and Colorado. The Democrats are more united behind a single candidate. Rightists already proclaiming a Romney victory need a huge dose of sobriety. It's not likely.
THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
Current Situation:
Republicans: 240
Democrats: 190
Vacant Seats: 5
My Current Prediction:
Definite Gains:
Democrats gain: 14 seats
Republicans gain: 11 seats
Tossups among...
Republican-held seats: 7
Democratic-held seats: 6
Net Change I'm Currently Predicting:
Democrats gain 3 or 4 seats.
FINAL BALANCE: 241 or 242 Republicans, 193 or 194 Democrats.
Notes: As you can see, I'm not nearly as optimistic as Nancy Pelosi, who is persuaded the Democrats can gain at least 27 House seats in this election cycle. That might be true, but from what I know so far, I can't foresee that positive an outcome. I expect that the House will remain solidly controlled by the Republicans.
THE SENATE
Current Scenario:
51 Democrats
47 Republicans
2 Independents who caucus with Democrats
33 seats are up for election. Of those 33 seats, 21 are held by Democrats, 10 by Republicans, and 2 by independents who caucus with Democrats. Republicans thus have a mathematical advantage.
EFFECTIVELY: 53 Democrats, 47 Republicans
My Current Prediction:
Stays in the Democratic Camp:
1. Rhode Island
2. Vermont
3. Connecticut
4. New York
5. New Jersey
6. Delaware
7. Pennsylvania
8. Maryland
9. Florida
10. West Virginia
11. Ohio
12. Michigan
13. New Mexico
14. Washington
15. California
16. Hawaii
Switches from Republican to Democratic:
17. Maine
Stays Republican:
1. Massachusetts
2. Tennessee
3. Indiana
4. Mississippi
5. Texas
6. Wyoming
7. Utah
8. Arizona
9. Nevada
Switches from Democratic to Republican:
10. Virginia
11. Wisconsin
12. North Dakota
13. Nebraska
14. Montana
Pure Tossup: Missouri
FINAL OUTCOME, BIG PICTURE:
Republicans: 51 or 52 (depending on Missouri)
Democrats: 46 or 47 (depending on Missouri)
Independents: 2 (both Democratic-leaning)
EFFECTIVELY: 51-52 Republicans, 48-49 Democrats
Notes: What it all means is that Republicans, I believe, will experience a net gain of 4 to 5 Senate seats, thus switching overall control of the Senate from the Democrats to the Republicans. I'm not an optimist on the ability of the Democratic Party to retain the Senate.
GUBERNATORIAL RACES
Current balance of state governorships:
29 Republicans
20 Democrats
11 states will have gubernatorial elections concurrent with the November 6th general elections this year.
Republicans will pick up either 3 or 4 governorships:
For sure:
1) North Carolina
2) Montana
3) Washington
Possible:
4) New Hampshire
FINAL BALANCE PREDICTION:
32 or 33 Republican governors
16 or 17 Democratic governors
BIG PICTURE
This won't be a good year for Democrats, realistically, mainly because of the Republicans' money advantage. Corporate America clearly sides with the Republicans and now has the ability to funnel unlimited monies into election campaigns either directly or indirectly. I suspect that while President Obama will win a second term, he will have to deal with an even more hostile Congress in that not one but both chambers will now be controlled by the opposition party, which will block pretty much everything he tries to do. I don't think progressives should be too optimistic in an overall sense. Too many people are making highly ambitious forecasts that aren't realistic. Sobriety is called for on the left in particular, but also more generally.