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Thread: Crude oil market

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    Is all Trump's fault... Oil jumps over 10 percent as OPEC finalizes output cut deal November 30, 2016 - Oil soared more than 10 percent on Wednesday to over $50 a barrel and its highest in a month as some of the world's largest producers agreed to curb production for the first time since 2008 in a bid to support prices.
    Crude prices rose nearly 5 percent for the month. However, they are unlikely to skyrocket further in reaction to the deal and the rally may even be short-lived, traders and analysts said. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which accounts for a third of global oil supply, agreed to cut production from January by around 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd), or over 3 percent, to 32.5 million bpd. The cut will put production at the low end of a preliminary agreement struck in Algiers in September, and will reduce output from a current 33.64 million bpd. The group's de facto leader Saudi Arabia said it would take the lion's share of cuts - reducing output by almost 500,000 bpd to 10.06 million bpd - to get the deal done. Iraq, OPEC's second largest producer which had previously resisted cuts, providing a hurdle to a deal, agreed to reduce output by 200,000 bpd to 4.351 million bpd. Iran was allowed to boost production slightly from its October level. This was a major victory for Tehran, which has long argued it needs to regain market share lost under Western sanctions. Non-OPEC member Russia, which had long resisted cutting output and pushed its production to new record highs in recent months, agreed to cut output by 300,000 bpd. OPEC will meet with non-OPEC producers on Dec. 9. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for January delivery settled up $4.21 to $49.44 a barrel, a 9.6 percent gain. They earlier rose 10 percent, the largest one-day move since February. Brent crude futures for January delivery settled up $4.09 a barrel or 8.82 percent at $50.47 a barrel. The contract expires Wednesday, and the February contract rose 8.9 percent to $51.51 Oil prices will continue to strengthen on the deal, but sharp gains will be limited as market skepticism lingers about how effective the cuts will be. "It's going to take time to see who's going to abide by those rules," said Oliver Sloup, director of managed futures at IITrader.com. In the past, not all producers have complied with agreements on supply cuts, Sloup said. As a result, there is skepticism about how closely the production caps will be adhered to. Kuwait, Venezuela and Algeria have agreed to monitor compliance with the OPEC agreement. U.S. production capabilities may also mute the price reaction, according to Viktor Nossek, director of research at Wisdomtree. "While prices may climb further in the very near term, we expect any gains will be short-lived, with U.S. production likely to ramp up to exploit higher prices." The market will grow in a measured way because traders with short positions have already exited crude futures, according to Dominic Chirichella, senior partner at the Energy Management Institute. "There's going to be an air of cautiousness and rightfully so," he said. "I think the market is going to move to the upside, but in a metered, cautious manner over a period of time." MORE

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    This makes me glad I ride a recumbent bicycle.I glance at gas price signs about 3 times a year.I am 36 and never had a DL.
    There is no God but Resister and Refugee is his messenger’.

    Book of Democrat Things, Chapter 1:1






  3. #63
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    Cuts not to have much of effect on glut... OPEC cuts will have a muted effect on consumers Dec 1,`16 -- OPEC's decision to cut production gave an immediate boost to oil prices, but the impact on consumers and the U.S. economy is likely to be more modest and gradual.
    The cartel agreed Wednesday to cut output by 1.2 million barrels a day, reversing a strategy that produced lower oil prices and pain for U.S. drillers but saved money for consumers. Even if OPEC members carry through on their promises, global oil production would only fall by about 1 percent. There is still more supply than demand - the reason oil prices collapsed beginning in mid-2014. The price of oil shot up 9 percent to near $50 a barrel. If the price keeps rising, some of the slack from OPEC cuts will be picked up by producers in the United States - good news for drillers and oilfield workers in Texas and North Dakota. President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to increase drilling in the U.S., the world's third-largest producer after Saudi Arabia and Russia, which would help ensure there is plenty of oil. In short, analysts say, consumers and businesses are not likely to see the return of $100-a-barrel oil - and the high energy costs that came with it - anytime soon.
    Leon Balagula changes the price for the gasoline at his Sunoco station in the early morning, in Fort Lee, N.J. OPEC’s decision on Wednesday, Nov. 30, 2016, to cut production gave an immediate boost to oil prices, but the impact on consumers is likely to be more modest and gradual
    Still, there could be some short-term shocks even before OPEC's cuts take effect in January. "The average Joe filling up his tank may notice in the next week or two that gas prices move higher by 5 to 15 cents a gallon just on the psyche of the deal," said Patrick DeHaan, an analyst for GasBuddy, a site used to comparison-shop for gasoline. The U.S. Energy Department predicts that heating oil costs will rise about one-third this winter, but that prediction was issued more than a month ago and was based heavily on forecasts of much colder temperatures in the Northeast. If the weather forecast proves wrong, prices could sink because heating-oil inventories are running above their 5-year average and grew again last week. A small increase in gasoline or even a bigger jump in heating oil, which is used in only 5 percent of American homes, won't affect shoppers if the economy does well, in the view of Michael Niemira, chief economist at The Retail Economist LLC, which does a weekly retail-sales report with Goldman Sachs. "The consumer isn't really focused on gasoline since prices remain low. A better economy, a better labor market - those matter much more," Niemira said. But if gasoline spikes to $4, "that could be bad. " Crude has traded between $40 and $50 a barrel the last several months. The national average for gasoline on Wednesday stood at $2.15 a gallon, according to the AAA auto club. MORE
    See also: Oil price rally likely short-lived as OPEC deal not enough to reduce glut Thu Dec 1, 2016 | The oil price rally sparked by an OPEC-Russia deal to cut output is likely to be short-lived, say traders in Asia, because the agreement may only draw more supplies from storage tanks and more crude shipments from the United States.
    And even without increased supplies from elsewhere, if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia do reduce production by 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) as pledged, the cuts would not be deep enough to shrink a glut that began to build in mid-2014, traders said. "The cut by OPEC will be largely offset by increases in U.S. production where the rig count has already increased," said India Oil Corp's Director of Finance A K Sharma. "So surplus (oil) will stay in the market. If there is any impact, it will be short term." Higher oil prices and lower production costs are encouraging U.S. shale operators to increase output, while Kazakhstan started production at the Kashagan field in October. Traders said the extent of the impact of the output deal will also depend on how it affects exports from Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members. Cuts in export supply from producers could come from changes in operational tolerance, a contractual clause that allows either the buyer or seller to increase or reduce volumes by up to 10 percent, trade sources said.
    An employee of Cosmo Energy Holdings' Cosmo Oil service station checks its nozzles at a branch in Tokyo, Japan
    The OPEC deal "will provide some price momentum but it cannot be compared with the cut seen back in 2008," a Singapore-based trader said, referring to the last OPEC production cut at 4.2 million bpd. Production cuts early in the year are also a normal response to a low-demand season in February and March when Asian refiners typically shut for maintenance, he said. Stronger prompt prices have also narrowed oil contango market structures, potentially prompting the release of oil from storage that could add to supplies, traders said. Oil is more expensive in future months in a contango market, encouraging traders to store the commodity, but supplies are backed out when spreads start to weaken. Strength in Middle East crude benchmark Dubai may also further narrow its price gap against Brent, leading Asia refiners to buy more oil from the Atlantic Basin and the Americas, traders said. IMPACT ON OIL DEMAND, MARGINS

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    Angry

    OPEC will be pleased, oil & gas prices will rise...

    Non-OPEC oil producers to cut output 558,000 barrels a day
    Dec 10,`16 -- OPEC has persuaded 11 non-members to cut oil production, a move aimed at draining a worldwide oil glut and boosting low prices that have squeezed government finances in Russia and Saudi Arabia.
    Officials said Saturday that non-members agreed to cut 558,000 barrels per day for six months starting Jan. 1, and that the deal was renewable for another six months after that. The figure was less than the 600,000 barrels a day that OPEC had hoped for. Those non-member cuts come on top of an OPEC decision Nov. 30 to reduce member output by 1.2 million barrels a day. Saudi oil minister Khalid Al-Falih called Saturday's deal "historic" and said it would stabilize the market through next year and encourage industry investment. The announcement came after OPEC member states met with Russia and other non-OPEC countries in Vienna for talks. Al-Falih said the deal "is meant to accelerate the natural process of rebalancing" the oil market.


    Persons stand outside the headquarters of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, in Vienna, Austria, Saturday, Dec. 10, 2016. OPEC member states are meeting with Russia and other non-OPEC countries in Vienna for talks about a reduction in oil production. Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo said the discussions began Saturday in a "positive atmosphere" at the headquarters of the oil producers' cartel

    The 11 non-OPEC countries taking part in the agreement are: Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Equatorial Guinea, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, Russia, Sudan and South Sudan. OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo said much of the production cuts were expected to come from Russia, which co-chaired Saturday's meeting. Major oil producers such as non-member Russia and cartel leader Saudi Arabia have seen a worldwide oversupply send prices lower and reduce revenues to government budgets. It remains to be seen whether the cutbacks will do much to raise prices, given OPEC members' track record of exceeding agreed-upon production quotas, and due to weak uptake from a sluggish global economy.

    Some non-OPEC countries such as Mexico were already seeing production wane due to weak demand. Al-Falih said "the intent by all those who participated is to contribute to drawing down oil inventories that are excessive." "And whether the reduction in that over-supply comes from deliberate intervention - like it is the case in Saudi Arabia - or by simply managing the decline in a way that makes them meet this agreement is left to the countries themselves," he said. Oil fell from over $90 per barrel in early 2014 to as low as $40 earlier this year, briefly sending the average price of regular gasoline at the pump to under $2 for motorists in the United States. Oil closed at $51.58 on Friday, up 6 percent since the OPEC production cut was announced.

    http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories...12-10-14-17-01

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    Non-OPEC producers join OPEC cuts...

    Oil hits highest since mid-2015 on non-OPEC cut agreement
    December 12, 2016 - Oil rose to an 18-month high on Monday after OPEC and some of its rivals reached their first deal since 2001 to jointly reduce output to tackle global oversupply, though prices slipped late in the day.
    On Saturday, producers from outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, led by Russia, agreed to reduce output by 558,000 barrels per day, short of the target of 600,000 bpd but still the largest non-OPEC contribution ever. That followed OPEC's Nov. 30 deal to cut output by 1.2 million bpd for six months from Jan. 1. Top exporter Saudi Arabia will cut around 486,000 bpd to reduce the supply glut that has dogged markets for two years.

    Crude futures have rallied sharply, with U.S. oil futures gaining 23 percent since the middle of November as optimism that an agreement would be reached started to grow. There is some concern amongst analysts that the big move in crude is not sustainable, and that the market may have overshot given the expectation that various producers would not comply with the cuts they agreed upon. "Right now the market is kind of feeding on itself," said Gene McGillian, manager of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. "The market could push another $1 to $2 up to $55, and Brent could go to about $60, but at that point there are some concerns that are going to start to cap the rally."

    On Monday, U.S. crude futures settled up $1.33 at $52.83 a barrel, a 2.6 percent gain, though that was sharply off the day's highs. Prices continued to fall following settlement, with crude up just 98 cents to $52.48 at 3:22 p.m. ET. Brent crude futures settled up $1.36 at $55.69 per barrel, a 2.5 percent rise, after hitting a session peak of $57.89, highest since July 2015. "Overnight we had a knee-jerk rally to the highs, but the market is going to try to analyse" the non-OPEC agreement going forward, said Andrew Lebow, managing partner at Commodity Research Group.

    For the deal to be effective, all parties must stick to their word. Higher prices also raise the chances of other producers boosting output, particularly U.S. shale operators, where rig counts have grown steadily in recent months. U.S. production remains about 1 million bpd below its peak of 9.6 million reached in 2015, according to U.S. Energy Department data. Further, several of the non-OPEC countries are still increasing their production. Russia, for instance, does not expect to reach its target until April or May, and several other countries are expected to experience only natural declines, which will not necessarily affect the supply situation.

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/oil-hits-...ce.html?ref=gs

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    So oil goes up, we crank it back up, putting people back to work, making America great again. It's all good.

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    Angry

    Granny says, "Dat's right - how's dat end to the oil export ban lookin' now?...

    Oil gains post-Christmas ahead of OPEC, non-OPEC cuts
    December 26, 2016 - U.S. oil prices extended gains on Tuesday in post-Christmas trading, as OPEC and non-OPEC members are set to start curbing output in less than a week to support oil prices.
    NYMEX crude for February delivery was up 16 cents at $53.18 a barrel by 0002 GMT, after closing up 7 cents at a 17-month high on Friday. London Brent crude for February delivery was yet to trade after settling up 11 cents at $55.16 a barrel on Friday. Oil markets were closed on Monday after Christmas holiday. Oil has been supported in the past several weeks as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC members have agreed to lower output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) from Jan. 1.


    A gas station attendant pumps fuel into a customer's car at PetroChina's petrol station in Beijing, China

    Libya's oil production rose slightly to 622,000 barrels a day (bpd) on Monday, as an armed faction agreed to lift a two-year blockade on major western pipelines, the National Oil Corporation said. It said it could add 270,000 bpd within three months. The U.S. Department of Energy expects to begin sales of roughly 8 million barrels of sweet crude from the country's emergency oil reserve in early to mid-January, according to a notice sent to potential bidders and seen by Reuters on Friday. Russia's oil exports would rise by almost 5 percent this year to 253.5 million tonnes and a "slight" increase was expected next year, Deputy Energy Minister Kirill Molodtsov said on Monday.

    China's end-November crude oil stocks fell 1.55 percent from the previous month to 29.89 million tonnes as domestic output shrank and winter demand grew, data from the official Xinhua news agency showed. Diesel inventories slid to a record low. Algeria's Sonatrach will drill 290 wells in 2017 in comparison with 265 in 2016, the head of the oil and gas giant's drilling division told Reuters late on Friday. Hedge funds boosted bullish bets on U.S. crude oil for a third week in a row to a near 2-1/2 year high, data showed on Friday, on signs that OPEC and other producers will stick to a deal to cut output.

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/oil-gains...48.html?ref=gs

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    Cool

    Oil prices decline slightly...

    Oil touches three-month lows, as U.S. supply swells
    Mon Mar 13, 2017 | Oil hovered around three-month lows on Monday, as rising U.S. inventories and drilling activity offset optimism over OPEC's efforts to restrict crude output.
    Brent crude LCOc1 was down 7 cents on the day, at $51.30 a barrel by 1202 GMT, having hit a session trough of $50.85, its lowest level since Nov. 30. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) CLc1 fell 15 cents to $48.34 a barrel. The price has fallen by more than 8 percent since last Monday, its biggest week-on-week drop in four months, and analysts said the slide may not have much further to run. "The market is bearish because sentiment has turned. The risk is still towards the downside, but we are nowhere near the precipice," PVM Oil Associates Tamas Varga said.

    Goldman Sachs said in a note it remained "very confident" about commodity prices and maintained its price forecast of $57.50 a barrel for WTI in the second quarter. U.S. drillers added oil rigs for an eighth consecutive week, Baker Hughes said on Friday, lifting spending to benefit from an earlier recovery in crude prices since the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreed to cut output. [RIG/U] OPEC and other major oil producers including Russia reached an agreement late last year to rein in production by almost 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first half of 2017.


    Fuel pump nozzles are pictured at a Helios petrol station in Almaty, Kazakhstan

    Although OPEC states have been complying with supply curbs, led by Saudi Arabia, it has not been enough to overshadow a rise in U.S. inventories to a new high. [EIA/S] "It will be interesting to see how OPEC rhetoric will evolve with this price correction. Is price the only consideration when it comes to the decision of extending cuts?" BNP Paribas global head of commodity strategy Harry Tchilinguirian told the Reuters Global Oil Forum. He added that OPEC's task was more difficult as it aimed to cut inventory levels rather than simply target a specific price.

    Money managers cut their net long positions in U.S. crude futures and options in the week to March 7. For the broader financial markets, the focus will be on the Federal Reserve's policy meeting later this week at which it could likely raise U.S. interest rates. "The week ahead is packed with potentially market defining releases," Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at Sydney's CMC Markets, said. "However, the key to market performance this week is the response to the U.S. lift in rates."

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-gl...-idUSKBN16K028

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    How crude.
    I have a big cook.

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    Looks like gas prices goin' up...

    Oil prices rise on first drop in U.S. drilling in months
    Mon Jul 3, 2017 | Oil markets edged up on Monday, lifted by the first fall in U.S. drilling activity in months, although price gains were capped by reports of rising OPEC output last month even as the group has pledged to cut supply.
    Brent crude futures had climbed 13 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $48.90 per barrel by 0643 GMT, after jumping 5.2 percent last week in their first weekly gain in six weeks. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 17 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $46.21 per barrel, adding to last week's 7-percent gain. U.S. prices were lifted as drilling activity in the United States for new oil production fell for the first time since January, dropping by two rigs. Futures brokerage AxiTrader said on Monday that this was "the first crack in the resolve of U.S. shale oil to continue to ramp up production regardless of the big fall in price" earlier this year.


    A wellhead is seen at an Occidental Petroleum Corp carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery project in Hobbs, New Mexico

    Despite the dip in U.S. drilling activity, the total rig count was still more than double the 341 rigs in the same week a year ago, according to energy services firm Baker Hughes Inc. However, traders said that WTI prices were also being supported by expectations of strong gasoline consumption on the July 4 holiday in the United States. Globally, oil markets remain oversupplied as output from within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) hit a 2017 high.

    June OPEC production was up by 280,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 32.72 million bpd, according to a Reuters survey, despite the group's pledge to hold back output in an effort to tighten the market. "To put that in context, that is nearly a quarter of the 1.2 million barrels (per day) OPEC agreed to cut," said Greg McKenna, chief market strategist at AxiTrader, adding this increase was driven by higher output from Nigeria and Libya, which were exempted from the cuts.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-gl...-idUSKBN19O044

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