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    La Nina

    Chances of La Nina 50% in 2016...

    Chance of La Nina in 2016 on the rise
    Wednesday 13th April, 2016 - The chance of a La Nina in 2016 has increased in recent weeks, with climate models indicating a 50-per-cent possibility of the weather event emerging this year, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) said on Tuesday.
    The potential emergence of a La Nina comes as the strongest El Nino in nearly 20 years - which has been linked to serious crop damage, forest fires and flash floods - begins to subside.

    La Nina is the opposite of the El Nino weather event that is characterized by warmer waters in the tropical Pacific. While a La Nina can be less damaging than El Nino, severe La Ninas are also linked to floods, droughts and hurricanes. “Recent changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere, combined with current climate model outlooks, suggest the likelihood of La Nina in 2016 has increased to around 50 per cent,” the BOM said.


    A worker wades through the flooded 5 freeway after an El Nino-strengthened storm brought rain to Los Angeles, California

    The bureau had previously indicated that a strong El Nino weather pattern would likely end in the second quarter of 2016 and a La Nina could follow. Analysts say a La Nina could impact the supply of global grains, particularly wheat and corn - where the United States is the largest exporter of both crops. The weather event is associated with lower-than-average rainfalls over North America.

    While global supplies are ample as of now, the only thing that could change that “would be a possible La Nina”, said Phin Ziebell, agribusiness economist, National Australia Bank. Benchmark wheat prices fell to a more than five-year low last month and corn prices hit a 9-1/2-month low amid large world supplies.

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...21/?cmpid=rss1

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    It is a natural cycle and should be stronger this year. We are coming out of a strong El Nino.
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    Cool

    Granny says, "Dat's right - just wait a few days anna weather'll change...

    So Long, El Nino; Hello, La Nina
    June 09, 2016 - The monstrous El Nino weather pattern dubbed "Godzilla" by NASA (the U.S. space agency) is dead, scientists declared Thursday.
    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said the El Nino has ended, 15 months after its birth in March 2015. "There's nothing left,'' NOAA Climate Prediction Center deputy director Mike Halpert said. "Stick a fork in it, it's done.'' The weather pattern, defined by warmer-than-average Pacific Ocean water, was one of the three strongest El Ninos on record, along with 1997-1998 and 1982-83. It has been linked to crop damage, fires and flash floods over the past year.


    Displaced people gather at an artificial water pan near Habaas town of Awdal region, Somaliland, April 9, 2016. Across the Horn of Africa, millions have been hit by the severe El Nino-related drought.

    In the U.S., it delivered much-needed rain and snow to California, but failed to end the parched state's four-year drought. The cyclical weather phenomenon triggered droughts in parts of Africa, India and Southeast Asia, and contributed to the heating up of the planet. Earth has had 12 straight record hot months and is likely to have its second straight record hot year. The El Nino cycles occur every two or three years on average, and before we see the next one, we must contend with La Nina, the cooler opposite of El Nino, to take place in the Northern Hemisphere later this year.

    NOAA forecasts a 50 percent chance of La Nina by the end of the hemisphere's summer, and a 75 percent chance by the end of the fall. La Nina generally brings more hurricanes to the Atlantic, drier-than-normal conditions in the U.S. Southwest, and wetter conditions in the Pacific Northwest. It often brings lots of rain to parts of Australia and Southeast Asia, and cooler temperatures in parts of Africa, Asia, South America and Canada.

    http://www.voanews.com/content/el-ni...a/3369674.html
    Last edited by waltky; 06-11-2016 at 02:43 AM.

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    I am surprised they are focused on a natural climate system for a change.
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    Exclamation

    El Nino being replaced by La Nina...

    La Niña Threatens to Bring Drought to East Africa
    June 22, 2016 - The Pacific Ocean is in the midst of an El Niño weather phenomenon that warms the surface of the water, but climate scientists say not for much longer. It is about to be replaced by its sister, La Niña, which comes around every two to five years and cools the surface of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
    United States Geological Survey (USGS) research scientist Dr. Chris Funk says that, as strange as it sounds, both weather systems can affect long-term weather patterns in a landlocked country half a world away. If La Niña bumps her brother out of the way, says Funk, “it is quite possible that we might have drought in the southern part of Ethiopia in the fall of next year.” How is that possible? Think of the weather as a line of stacked dominos — when one falls over, all the rest follow. In this case, La Niña is that first domino, and as it changes the weather in the Pacific, those changes cascade across the entire planet.


    An emaciated cow walks in an open field in Gelcha village, one of the drought-stricken areas of Oromia region, in Ethiopia

    Right now, El Niño is part of the reason the northern region of Ethiopia is experiencing its worst drought in decades. But as La Niña takes its place, Funk says those rainfall deficits are likely to move into the southern parts of Ethiopia, extending into the Horn of Africa. “There are two rainy seasons in the equatorial part of east Africa,” Funk said. “They get rain in the fall — October, November and December — and there is another rainy season in March, April and May. So one of the dangers of La Niña is it can make both of these seasons perform very poorly. That is what happened in 2010 and 2011. So there is concern from a food security perspective [that] we might have two poor rainy seasons in a row.”


    Drought-stricken Ethiopians receive aid in the Shinile Zone of Ethiopia near the border with Somalia

    Back-to-back droughts in Kenya and Somalia, or a March-June drought in Ethiopia, could cause food and water shortages, hurt hydro-power stations and worsen farming conditions. Funk's team is working on ways to prepare for the threat of hard times. The group is urging the population to brace for drought-related monetary loss, but also is using high-tech equipment to help farmers and livestock managers find water. While it may not be possible to stop a drought, scientists are getting better at predicting it and helping those most affected prepare for the worst.

    http://www.voanews.com/content/la-ni...a/3387916.html

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    And the warmists want to limit these people from cheap energy.
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    Lightbulb

    La Nina not gonna affect climate change...

    Cooler La Nina Temperatures Will Not Impact Climate Change
    July 28, 2016 — The World Meteorological Organization says a La Nina event may develop later this year, but this weather phenomenon, which ushers in cooler temperatures will have no long-lasting impact on climate change.
    The El Nino/La Nina weather phenomenon has worldwide regional impacts on rainfall and temperature on a seasonal scale. El Nino causes a warming of the tropical eastern and central sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and is characterized by warmer temperatures. Indeed, the strong 2015-16 El Nino that ended in May broke all temperature records for the first six months of the year, putting 2016 on track to be the hottest year on record. La Nina has the opposite effect. The World Meteorological Organization says La Nina causes large-scale cooling of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, which tends to cool the atmosphere slightly.


    Oceanographic satellite released by NASA April 21, 2008, depicts a La Nina blanketing the Pacific Ocean near the equator.

    WMO’s Climate Prediction and Adaptation Branch head Maxx Dilley tells VOA next year is unlikely to set any heat records if a La Nina does occur later this year. “This does not mean global warming is not happening anymore if it is not the hottest year on record. These are just slight adjustments to the global temperature that occur due to this oscillation between El Nino and La Nina," he said. "So, if a La Nina occurs we might see just a little bit of attenuation of what we have been seeing, which is record temperatures year after year after year globally.”


    A Pakistani man cools himself off under a water supply to beat the heat during the holy fasting month of Ramadan, in Islamabad, Pakistan

    WMO says the world now is in a neutral phase, but there is a 50 to 65 percent probability that La Nina will develop in the third quarter of 2016 and last through the end of the year. Meteorologists say La Nina, which brings above average rain, is likely to offer relief to drought stricken areas including South Asia, eastern Australia, southern and eastern Africa.

    http://www.voanews.com/content/wmo-la-nina/3438372.html

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    Exclamation

    La Nina may make drought worse in Africa...

    UN worried La Nina will worsen 'dire' drought in Somalia
    Friday 2nd September, 2016 - The La Nina weather phenomenon is likely to worsen drought and hunger in Somalia, especially in the north where many people and their animals are migrating in search of water after four failed rainy seasons, the United Nations said on Thursday.
    La Nina, characterised by unusually cold temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, is predicted to bring further hardship to swathes of east and southern Africa already hit by the El Nino weather phenomenon. El Nino, a warming of the Pacific Ocean, brought severe drought to northern parts of Somalia, like Puntland and Somaliland, and floods to southern and central areas. "The situation could further worsen in the likelihood of a La Niña event," the United Nations (U.N.) Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said in its latest bulletin. "The outlook for Puntland compounds an already dire situation with the food security situation for southern and central Somalia also increasingly worrying."

    Somalia's 2011 famine, in which 260,000 people died, was partly the result of a significant La Nina following El Nino. Four out of 10 Somalis - some 4.7 million people - already need humanitarian aid, the United Nations said, amid conflict between the Islamist militant group al Shabaab and the African Union-backed government. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWSNET) predicts La Nina will last throughout Somalia's October to January short rainy season, known as the Deyr.

    This could increase hunger and migration, the United Nations said, as poor rains have already destroyed crops and reduced the opportunity for people to earn money as farm labourers. The August harvest is likely to be 30 percent to 50 percent below average in southern and central Somalia due to poor Gu rains between April and July, the United Nations said. "The food security situation in southern and central and northeastern parts of Somalia is expected to deteriorate in the coming months with more people facing acute food insecurity," it said.

    http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/...a/3093382.html

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    Question

    Should be a mild winter...

    Here Comes La Nina, El Nino's Flip Side, but it Will Be Weak
    November 09, 2017 | WASHINGTON — La Nina, the cool flip side to El Nino, is returning for a second straight winter, forecasters said Thursday.
    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said a weak La Nina has formed and is expected to stick around for several months. La Nina is a natural cooling of parts of the Pacific that alters weather patterns around the globe. La Nina typically brings drier conditions to the U.S. South and wetter weather to the Pacific Northwest and western Canada. Indonesia, the Philippines, northeastern South America and South Africa often see more rain during La Nina winters.



    Dry cracked mud is seen along the banks of the Rio Grande at Big Bend National Park in Texas during one of the strongest La Nina years on record, March 25, 2011. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday, Nov. 9, 2017 that a weak La Nina has formed and is expected to stick around for several months.



    Last year's La Nina was unusually brief, forming in November and gone by February. This one should hang around through the end of winter. While it may last a bit longer than last year's La Nina, it should be just as weak, said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Texas A&M University agricultural economist Bruce McCarl said La Nina years are often bad for Texas and the surrounding region. U.S. production of most crops - except corn - generally goes down in La Nina years, according to research by McCarl.


    The last major La Nina several years ago caused major crop damage and Texas suffered a devastating drought, McCall said. On average, La Nina years hurt U.S. and China gross domestic product about 0.3 percentage points, but lead to growth in India, New Zealand and South Africa, according to Kamiar Mohaddes, a University of Cambridge economist. Because La Nina shifts storm tracks, it often brings more snow in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. "Typically La Nina is not a big snow year in the mid-Atlantic," Halpert said. "You have a better chance up in New England."


    https://www.voanews.com/a/here-comes...k/4108071.html

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