Assessing the North Korean hazard

[Peter1469]

Assessing the North Korean hazard

This is part one of a series assessing the North Korean nuclear program and what can be done about it.

Reprinting or republication of this report on websites is authorized by prominently displaying the following sentence, including the hyperlink to Stratfor, at the beginning or end of the report.
"Assessing the North Korean Hazard is republished with permission of Stratfor."

Editor's Note: This is the first installment of a five-part series examining the measures that could be taken to inhibit North Korea's nuclear weapons program. The purpose of this series is not to consider political rhetoric or noninvasive means of coercion, such as sanctions. Rather, we are exploring the military options, however remote, that are open to the United States and its allies, along with the expected retaliatory response from Pyongyang.

Few countries intrigue and perplex like the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. Isolated by choice from the ebbs and flows of the international system, North Korea is an island of its own making. It is often painted as a weak, fearsome lunatic with delusions of grandeur and aspirations to become a nuclear power, but the truth is a little more complicated. Despite outward appearances, Pyongyang is not reckless in its ambition. Nor does it foolhardily invite destruction. It walks a fine line, hoping to quietly attain a credible nuclear deterrent without inciting world powers to take decisive action.


Deterrence has always been a part of North Korea's survival strategy. Pyongyang's calculated disarray is primarily for the benefit of potential aggressors, advising caution should provocation lead to a disproportionate response. Thriving on contradiction, Pyongyang simultaneously depicts itself as fragile to the point of collapse yet immeasurably strong. This act has served the Kim dynasty well, gaining concessions from major powers that normally would not have been afforded.


North Korea has a good read on the world's inability and unwillingness to respond, not only because of upcoming U.S. elections but also because of the risk of pre-emption: Pyongyang's conventional deterrent raises the cost of intervention far higher than it is at most other places. The window for a military option to stem Pyongyang's nuclear program is closing, but that does not necessarily mean a strike is more likely now than before. Still, the balance is delicate, and should Pyongyang overplay its hand, the repercussions could be catastrophic.

Reprinting or republication of this report on websites is authorized by prominently displaying the following sentence, including the hyperlink to Stratfor, at the beginning or end of the report.
"Assessing the North Korean Hazard is republished with permission of Stratfor."

[waltky]

Fatboy usin' drones to spy onna So. Korea...

Korean tensions explode: South Korea fires at suspected North Korea drone as Pyongyang gears up for war
Wednesday 24th May, 2017 - A day after North Korea touted its second successful missile test in a week, that was fired on Sunday, the South Korean military have said that their alertness was tested on Tuesday.

South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff said that the military reported an incursion when they spotted an object flying from North Korea across the Demilitarized Zone that divides the two countries. The military said that it had fired warning shots at the object, suspected to be a North Korean drone and noted that more than 90 shots were fired in return after which the object disappeared from radar screens. The object was spotted two days after Pyongyang test-fired a ballistic missile, which became its second missile test in seven days. However, reports noted that it was not the first time South Korea has reacted to an object sent across its border.

Early last year, the South fired at an unidentified North Korean aircraft with machine-gun fire after the aircraft crossed the DMZ. At the time, a South Korean official had stated that it "immediately went towards the North.” According to a report prepared by the U.S. Department of Defense and submitted to the Congress, North Korea is believed to have a fleet of more than 1,300 fighter jets, as well as an unspecified number of its own unmanned aerial vehicles. Before that, in 2014, two suspected North Korean drones were found in South Korea, with one being found on the island of Baengnyeong and another in the city of Paju, close to the border.

The current incursion comes a day after tensions reached a new peak following North Korea conducting a missile test on Sunday, and then touting the success of the test firing the next day. Then, North Korea praised its own missile launch and said that it was prepared for action, as the country’s leader had ordered mass production of its latest missile that can not only reach Japan but now has the capability to strike the U.S. too. Experts, however, believe that North Korea’s claims of possessing an intercontinental ballistic missile are exaggerated, even though they fear that eventually, the country might develop a missile which would bring U.S. into its radar.

Granny says the way Fatboy lookin' at him, he better be payin' up on his life insurance.

Meanwhile, all of North Korea nuclear tests have been in strict violation of the UN Security Council sanctions placed against the country. On Tuesday, the United Nations Security Council is set to meet to discuss North Korea's recent actions, including the Sunday missile test. Members of the UNSC condemned Sunday’s launch in a statement, calling it highly destabilising behaviour in "flagrant and provocative defiance of the Security Council."

The United States meanwhile has been persuading China, North Korea's lone major ally, to do more to rein in rival North Korea that has created a situation of war on the Korean peninsula. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yo said in a statement,"We urge North Korea to not do anything to again violate UN Security Council resolutions. At the same time, we hope all parties can maintain restraint, not be influenced by every single incident, ...persist in carrying out Security Council resolutions on North Korea and persevere with the resolution of the issue through peaceful means, dialogue and consultation."

http://www.bignewsnetwork.com/news/2...ars-up-for-war

See also:

The nuclear beast is ready for action and is initiating mass production of its new missile - What is America thinking?
Tuesday 23rd May, 2017 - A day after conducting its second missile test in a week, North Korea has now said that it is ready for action - the ball is now in America’s court.

According to North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un, the intermediate-range ballistic missile that was tested on Sunday is ready for "action." According to the reclusive state's news agency, KCNA, the test that was initially reported by South Korea, was a success. KCNA said in its report, the launch verified the reliability and accuracy of the solid-fuel engine's operation and stage separation and the late-stage guidance of the nuclear warhead which was recorded by a device mounted on the warhead. It further noted that Kim Jong Un supervised the launch of the Pukguksong-2 missile himself and was pleased with the results.

According to the report, “Saying with pride that the missile's rate of hits is very accurate and Pukguksong-2 is a successful strategic weapon, he approved the deployment of this weapon system for action. Viewing the images of the Earth being sent real-time from the camera mounted on the ballistic missile, Supreme leader Kim Jong-un said it feels grand to look at the Earth from the rocket we launched and the entire world looks so beautiful.” Meanwhile, following the report by North Korea, South Korea said that the North appeared to have secured "meaningful data" from the test. Roh Jae-cheon, a spokesman for South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement, “South Korean and U.S. intelligence authorities believe North Korea has secured meaningful data in enhancing the credibility of its missile technology.”

Granny says the Donald oughta reach over an' smack Fatboy fer givin' him the evil eye

Jae-cheon further noted that further verification was needed to determine whether the North had mastered the re-entry technology for missile warheads that it has claimed. This was North Korea’s second missile test in a week, with South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff claiming in a statement on Sunday that the missile was fired from an area near North Korea’s Pukchang county, in South Phyongan Province and flew eastward about 500 kilometers (310 miles). The U.S. Pacific Command said in its statement that it tracked the missile before it landed into the sea. Seoul added that the missile appeared to be similar in range and apogee to a midrange solid-fuel missile that North Korea fired in February.

An official said that the missile reached a maximum altitude of 560 kilometers (347 miles). Commenting on the recent test, White House officials that were then in Saudi Arabia, accompanying U.S. President Donald Trump on his first foreign trip said that the system has a shorter range than the missiles launched in North Korea’s most recent tests. Marking its first missile test after Trump took office, North Korea used a launcher truck in February this year, to fire a solid-fuel missile that it calls the Pukguksong (Polaris)-2, a land-based version of a submarine-launched missile. According to South Korean and U.S. officials, that missile travelled about 500 kilometers before crashing into the sea.

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[Peter1469]

They are getting close to ICBM tech.

Does anyone know their current state of fuel? In the past Intel estimated that NK didn't have the fuel to sustain a mechanized push south for longer than a month.