This Israeli military historian has a very pragmatic and sophisticated understanding of the ME.
http://www.project-syndicate.org/onl...hands-off-iran
Excerpts:
Throughout 2011, the Arab uprisings were driven by each country’s internal dynamics. Yet the disparate movements were united by the pursuit of freedom, dignity, and economic opportunity. Now this liberal narrative is breaking down.
snip
Whereas Turkey is on the rise regionally, Iran is in decline. Iran’s recent election results demonstrate the vast fissures among the ayatollahs, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and the populace. The Iranian economy is sclerotic and stands to be crippled by the latest wave of sanctions. Meanwhile, Israeli intelligence seems to be operating with impunity inside Iran, assassinating scientists and delaying nuclear progress.
The Israeli government has vastly exaggerated the threat that a nuclear Iran poses to its security, as well as Israel’s capacity to halt it. Disabling the Iranian nuclear program by aerial bombardment is probably impossible, owing to its size and dispersion, a lack of actionable intelligence, and, above all, the fact that the element of surprise has long been lost. Iran’s acquisition of the bomb, on the other hand, could bring increased stability to the region, as the doctrine of Mutual Assured Destruction demonstrated in the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union.
Understood in this light, the real threat is not Iran’s pursuit of a nuclear weapon, but Israel’s attempts to halt it, which would surely incur Iranian retaliation through blockade of the Strait of Hormuz – sending oil prices soaring to more than $200 a barrel and driving the world's major economies into sustained free-fall. In fact, despite the faux solidarity that US President Barack Obama expressed to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee in early March, Israel’s saber-rattling appears to be galvanizing an American modus vivendi with Iran in order to avert an Israeli attack.