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Thread: Martin Van Creveld: Hands off Syria, Hands off Iran

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    shaarona's Avatar Senior Member
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    Martin Van Creveld: Hands off Syria, Hands off Iran

    This Israeli military historian has a very pragmatic and sophisticated understanding of the ME.

    http://www.project-syndicate.org/onl...hands-off-iran

    Excerpts:

    Throughout 2011, the Arab uprisings were driven by each country’s internal dynamics. Yet the disparate movements were united by the pursuit of freedom, dignity, and economic opportunity. Now this liberal narrative is breaking down.

    snip


    Whereas Turkey is on the rise regionally, Iran is in decline. Iran’s recent election results demonstrate the vast fissures among the ayatollahs, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and the populace. The Iranian economy is sclerotic and stands to be crippled by the latest wave of sanctions. Meanwhile, Israeli intelligence seems to be operating with impunity inside Iran, assassinating scientists and delaying nuclear progress.

    The Israeli government has vastly exaggerated the threat that a nuclear Iran poses to its security, as well as Israel’s capacity to halt it. Disabling the Iranian nuclear program by aerial bombardment is probably impossible, owing to its size and dispersion, a lack of actionable intelligence, and, above all, the fact that the element of surprise has long been lost. Iran’s acquisition of the bomb, on the other hand, could bring increased stability to the region, as the doctrine of Mutual Assured Destruction demonstrated in the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union.

    Understood in this light, the real threat is not Iran’s pursuit of a nuclear weapon, but Israel’s attempts to halt it, which would surely incur Iranian retaliation through blockade of the Strait of Hormuz – sending oil prices soaring to more than $200 a barrel and driving the world's major economies into sustained free-fall. In fact, despite the faux solidarity that US President Barack Obama expressed to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee in early March, Israel’s saber-rattling appears to be galvanizing an American modus vivendi with Iran in order to avert an Israeli attack.

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    This reading of events is amplified by British Prime Minister David Cameron’s statements during his recent US visit. The subtext is that Cameron and Obama have closed ranks in identifying Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, and not the ayatollahs, as the primary wildcard.

    Netanyahu threatens to upend Obama’s carefully constructed international consensus concerning sanctions and containment of Iran – a consensus that averts regional mayhem.

    Most sane people – including in Israel – grasp that an unprovoked Israeli attack on Iran could have catastrophic consequences.

    It would push the Arab Spring movements in a decidedly anti-Western direction, unify Islamists and secularists in a reinvigorated hatred of Israel, and provoke a spate of terror attacks both inside Israel and on Western interests in Arab countries with Shia populations.

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    Quote Originally Posted by shaarona View Post
    This reading of events is amplified by British Prime Minister David Cameron’s statements during his recent US visit. The subtext is that Cameron and Obama have closed ranks in identifying Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, and not the ayatollahs, as the primary wildcard.

    Netanyahu threatens to upend Obama’s carefully constructed international consensus concerning sanctions and containment of Iran – a consensus that averts regional mayhem.

    Most sane people – including in Israel – grasp that an unprovoked Israeli attack on Iran could have catastrophic consequences.

    It would push the Arab Spring movements in a decidedly anti-Western direction, unify Islamists and secularists in a reinvigorated hatred of Israel, and provoke a spate of terror attacks both inside Israel and on Western interests in Arab countries with Shia populations.
    Please explain, in a sane fashion how THE OBAMA is or has built "consensus" for sanctions against Iran, while at the same time continuing to negotiate with Iran?

    Not only in violation of already existant international sanctions, but in violation of U.S. law as well.

    And before you please explain, in a sane fashion, how alienating our ally Israel, the only truely democratic nation in the region, in order too appease the theocratic dictatorship in Iran, is not only working for sanctions against the government of Iran, but working for the best interests of the United States.

    Please explain when it became the job of the American President to concern himself with what is best for the "region" as opposed to what is best for the self interests of the United States and her allies as per treaty obligations.

    Please explain all of that in a sane fashion, in light of THE OBAMA just the other day sitting on "The Veiw of a bunch of old fat hags" going around, admitting that he "dropped the ball" when it came to supporting the Iranian opposition protests for democracy.

    As he did for example, when he supported the ousting of long time Egyptian ally, Mubarak.
    Last edited by JohnAdams; 09-28-2012 at 03:39 PM.
    Our Constitution was made only for a moral and religiouspeople. It is wholly inadequate to the government of any other. ~Still waiting to see one of you liberals demonstrate that "separation of church and state" is a concept that is actually enumerated in our Constitution.

    And not just a liberal activist, legislate from the bench, fabrication.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JohnAdams View Post
    Please explain, in a sane fashion how THE OBAMA is or has built "consensus" for sanctions against Iran, while at the same time continuing to negotiate with Iran?

    How is he working for sanctions against the government of Iran, when he is at the same time going around, admitting that he "dropped the ball" when it came to supporting the Iranian opposition protests for democracy.

    As he allegedly did in Egypt for example.
    Carrot and stick.. nuanced for sure.

    Creveld is a brilliant man...

    The sanctions are punishing.. and Iran can't sell their oil.. What little bit they are selling to China is deeply discounted.. Iran's economy is in the tank.. and yes, he's still talkig with them.

    Many are under the delusion that the US orchstrated the Arab Spring.. They did not.

    Throughout 2011, the Arab uprisings were driven by each country’s internal dynamics. Yet the disparate movements were united by the pursuit of freedom, dignity, and economic opportunity.

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    Like they're not anti-Western already. Take the fish hook out of your mouth.



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    Quote Originally Posted by coolwalker View Post
    Like they're not anti-Western already. Take the fish hook out of your mouth.
    I have been reading Creveld for several years.. Its a pity that Bibi and Mitt don't.

    You have no first hand knowledge of the ME, do you?

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    Quote Originally Posted by shaarona View Post
    I have been reading Creveld for several years.. Its a pity that Bibi and Mitt don't.

    You have no first hand knowledge of the ME, do you?
    Only having visited there on a Med Cruse...then again Morocco and Algeria are a different matter having lived in both countries.
    Last edited by coolwalker; 09-28-2012 at 02:44 PM.



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    Quote Originally Posted by coolwalker View Post
    Only having visited there on a Med Cruse...then again Morocco and Algeria are a different matter having lived in both countries.
    I have never been to Morocco or Algeria.. but friends who spent time in Morocco loved it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by shaarona View Post
    I have never been to Morocco or Algeria.. but friends who spent time in Morocco loved it.
    I hated September and the wind off the Sahara...stings beyond belief. Labor/household servants was cheap, houses/villas were cheap, hash plentiful.



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    Meanwhile some "live free" guys want to be free to make millions of people die.

    If genius USers kill off the Christians & moderate Muslims in Syria to turn a tolerant nation into another Saudi conquest for Talmudic Islam, they will be consigning themselves to going under the same/similar thing.
    Last edited by Ivan88; 11-12-2012 at 04:48 PM.

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