This is a sequel thread to one I posted earlier. Just updating my previous forecast to account for new developments and apparent trends. Of course it is worth noting that, again, these predictions remain subject to change, particularly in view of how the first couple presidential debates go. But this is how I expect that things will turn out based on what we presently know:
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:
Definite Obama states:
1. Maine
2. Rhode Island
3. Vermont
4. Massachusetts
5. Connecticut
6. New York
7. New Jersey
8. Delaware
9. Pennsylvania
10. Maryland
11. Virginia
12. Florida
13. Ohio
14. Michigan
15. Illinois
16. Minnesota
17. New Mexico
18. Washington
19. Oregon
20. California
21. Hawaii
Likely Obama states:
22. New Hampshire
23. Wisconsin
24. Iowa
25. Nevada
Definite Romney states:
1. South Carolina
2. West Virgina
3. Kentucky
4. Tennessee
5. Georgia
6. Indiana
7. Alabama
8. Mississippi
9. Missouri
10. Arkansas
11. Louisiana
12. North Dakota
13. South Dakota
14. Nebraska
15. Kansas
16. Oklahoma
17. Texas
18. Montana
19. Wyoming
20. Utah
21. Arizona
22. Idaho
23. Alaska
Likely Romney state:
24. North Carolina
Pure Tossup:
1. Colorado
According to my forecast above, I predict the following outcome in electoral votes:
Obama: Either 323 (without Colorado) or 332 (with Colorado)
Romney: Either 206 (without Colorado) or 215 (with Colorado)
Notes: As you can see, I have almost eliminated the Pure Tossup category. Minus Colorado, I've moved the other states that were in that category into the Obama categories (and have moved North Carolina out of safe territory within the Romney camp as well). Obama is continuing to pull away, especially in the key swing states. Very recent polling shows Obama leading by 9% in Florida, 10% in Ohio, and 12% in Pennsylvania, for example. The difference? Paul Ryan's scheme to begin privatizing Medicare and the impact of that message getting out. The only factor that has changed in the swing states over the last month is that people over 60 (the Republican Party's traditionally most reliable voter demographic) have switched to the Obama camp overall.
Of course, the race is, as always, very close in my native Vermont. I mean neck-and-neck:
Obama: 62%
Romney: 25%
Undecided: 13%
THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
Current Situation:
Republicans: 240
Democrats: 190
Vacant Seats: 5
My Current Prediction: Democrats experience a net gain of 6 seats.
FINAL BALANCE:
236 Republicans
199 Democrats.
Republicans retain control of the House, but with a slightly diminished majority.
Notes: Not much has really changed in regards to the House, although there has been a slight down-ballot effect to Romney's continued decline. I expect the GOP to retain solid control of the House.
THE SENATE:
Current Scenario:
51 Democrats
47 Republicans
2 Independents who caucus with Democrats
33 seats are up for election. Of those 33 seats, 21 are held by Democrats, 10 by Republicans, and 2 by independents who caucus with Democrats. Republicans thus have a mathematical advantage.
EFFECTIVELY: 53 Democrats, 47 Republicans
My Current Prediction:
Stays in the Democratic Camp:
1. Rhode Island
2. Vermont
3. Connecticut
4. New York
5. New Jersey
6. Delaware
7. Pennsylvania
8. Maryland
9. Virginia
10. Florida
11. West Virginia
12. Ohio
13. Michigan
14. Missouri
15. New Mexico
16. Washington
17. California
18. Hawaii
Switches from Republican to Democratic:
19. Massachusetts
20. Maine
21. Wisconsin
Stays Republican:
1. Massachusetts
2. Tennessee
3. Indiana
4. Mississippi
5. Texas
6. Wyoming
7. Utah
8. Arizona
9. Nevada
Switches from Democratic to Republican:
10. North Dakota
11. Nebraska
12. Montana
Partisan Breakdown
Democrats: 51
Republicans: 47
Independents: 2 (both Democratic-leaning)
EFFECTIVELY: 51 Democrats, 47 Republicans, i.e. the status quo exactly in terms of totals. Nothing will essentially change, in other words.
Notes: There has been a clear down-ballot effect to Romney's continued decline. It now appears likely that the Democrats will retain overall control of the Senate and may not even lose any seats at all, on balance...which is downright astounding, considering the massive structural disadvantage the Democrats have in the Senate this year, with a large majority of the races being contested being ones that are currently held by Democrats. But it's the truth!
BOTTOM LINE: This is looking like a status quo election: Democrats will most likely retain the presidency and the Senate and Republicans the House. (I cannot yet provide updates on gubernatorial races, as there has been no new poll data on gubernatorial races since my earlier thread.) Things can yet change, particularly with the presidential debates, but in as far as Romney and the Republicans are hoping to make this a real winning election where their party sees net gains, as things presently stand, that prospect appears to have diminished quite a bit in the last month.