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Thread: Updated U.S. Election Predictions

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    Updated U.S. Election Predictions

    This is a sequel thread to one I posted earlier. Just updating my previous forecast to account for new developments and apparent trends. Of course it is worth noting that, again, these predictions remain subject to change, particularly in view of how the first couple presidential debates go. But this is how I expect that things will turn out based on what we presently know:

    PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:

    Definite Obama states:

    1. Maine
    2. Rhode Island
    3. Vermont
    4. Massachusetts
    5. Connecticut
    6. New York
    7. New Jersey
    8. Delaware
    9. Pennsylvania
    10. Maryland
    11. Virginia
    12. Florida
    13. Ohio
    14. Michigan
    15. Illinois
    16. Minnesota
    17. New Mexico
    18. Washington
    19. Oregon
    20. California
    21. Hawaii

    Likely Obama states:

    22. New Hampshire
    23. Wisconsin
    24. Iowa
    25. Nevada

    Definite Romney states:

    1. South Carolina
    2. West Virgina
    3. Kentucky
    4. Tennessee
    5. Georgia
    6. Indiana
    7. Alabama
    8. Mississippi
    9. Missouri
    10. Arkansas
    11. Louisiana
    12. North Dakota
    13. South Dakota
    14. Nebraska
    15. Kansas
    16. Oklahoma
    17. Texas
    18. Montana
    19. Wyoming
    20. Utah
    21. Arizona
    22. Idaho
    23. Alaska

    Likely Romney state:

    24. North Carolina

    Pure Tossup:

    1. Colorado


    According to my forecast above, I predict the following outcome in electoral votes:

    Obama: Either 323 (without Colorado) or 332 (with Colorado)
    Romney: Either 206 (without Colorado) or 215 (with Colorado)

    Notes: As you can see, I have almost eliminated the Pure Tossup category. Minus Colorado, I've moved the other states that were in that category into the Obama categories (and have moved North Carolina out of safe territory within the Romney camp as well). Obama is continuing to pull away, especially in the key swing states. Very recent polling shows Obama leading by 9% in Florida, 10% in Ohio, and 12% in Pennsylvania, for example. The difference? Paul Ryan's scheme to begin privatizing Medicare and the impact of that message getting out. The only factor that has changed in the swing states over the last month is that people over 60 (the Republican Party's traditionally most reliable voter demographic) have switched to the Obama camp overall.

    Of course, the race is, as always, very close in my native Vermont. I mean neck-and-neck:

    Obama: 62%
    Romney: 25%
    Undecided: 13%




    THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

    Current Situation:

    Republicans: 240
    Democrats: 190
    Vacant Seats: 5

    My Current Prediction:
    Democrats experience a net gain of 6 seats.

    FINAL BALANCE:

    236 Republicans
    199 Democrats.

    Republicans retain control of the House, but with a slightly diminished majority.

    Notes: Not much has really changed in regards to the House, although there has been a slight down-ballot effect to Romney's continued decline. I expect the GOP to retain solid control of the House.


    THE SENATE:

    Current Scenario:

    51 Democrats
    47 Republicans
    2 Independents who caucus with Democrats

    33 seats are up for election. Of those 33 seats, 21 are held by Democrats, 10 by Republicans, and 2 by independents who caucus with Democrats. Republicans thus have a mathematical advantage.

    EFFECTIVELY: 53 Democrats, 47 Republicans

    My Current Prediction:

    Stays in the Democratic Camp:

    1. Rhode Island
    2. Vermont
    3. Connecticut
    4. New York
    5. New Jersey
    6. Delaware
    7. Pennsylvania
    8. Maryland
    9. Virginia
    10. Florida
    11. West Virginia
    12. Ohio
    13. Michigan
    14. Missouri
    15. New Mexico
    16. Washington
    17. California
    18. Hawaii

    Switches from Republican to Democratic:


    19. Massachusetts
    20. Maine
    21. Wisconsin

    Stays Republican:

    1. Massachusetts
    2. Tennessee
    3. Indiana
    4. Mississippi
    5. Texas
    6. Wyoming
    7. Utah
    8. Arizona
    9. Nevada

    Switches from Democratic to Republican:


    10. North Dakota
    11. Nebraska
    12. Montana

    Partisan Breakdown


    Democrats: 51
    Republicans: 47
    Independents: 2 (both Democratic-leaning)

    EFFECTIVELY: 51 Democrats, 47 Republicans, i.e. the status quo exactly in terms of totals. Nothing will essentially change, in other words.

    Notes: There has been a clear down-ballot effect to Romney's continued decline. It now appears likely that the Democrats will retain overall control of the Senate and may not even lose any seats at all, on balance...which is downright astounding, considering the massive structural disadvantage the Democrats have in the Senate this year, with a large majority of the races being contested being ones that are currently held by Democrats. But it's the truth!

    BOTTOM LINE: This is looking like a status quo election: Democrats will most likely retain the presidency and the Senate and Republicans the House. (I cannot yet provide updates on gubernatorial races, as there has been no new poll data on gubernatorial races since my earlier thread.) Things can yet change, particularly with the presidential debates, but in as far as Romney and the Republicans are hoping to make this a real winning election where their party sees net gains, as things presently stand, that prospect appears to have diminished quite a bit in the last month.
    Last edited by IMPress Polly; 09-30-2012 at 04:42 PM.

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    You spent a lot of time compiling an opinion based on nothing more than fantasy. Nice job.

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    BTW, you are smoking something real potent if you think OhBama wins NH. But that's just one cog in the wheel of leftist dreams you posted.

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    All (non-Rasmussen) polls I have seen of late show Obama leading in New Hampshire, and generally by a 5-point margin, although there are still a lot of undecided voters there.

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    Polly, most of the polls are $#@!ed beyond any sense of reality. Look at the demographics of the respondents. You have states listed in WIN that are total toss-ups. I live in Virginia and it's way far from an OhBama win. Toss-up at best.

    The energy is not on your side. The magic of 2008 has been snuffed by the reality of OhBama's economy. Republicans are fired up like no other time I can recall. Turnout is on my side, not yours, and the polls reflect the opposite. You're a smart person, so think about it.

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    Republicans take presidency, I base this on my own personal belief that Americans are not as dumb as the left hopes.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Dickman View Post
    Polly, most of the polls are $#@!ed beyond any sense of reality. Look at the demographics of the respondents. You have states listed in WIN that are total toss-ups. I live in Virginia and it's way far from an OhBama win. Toss-up at best.

    The energy is not on your side. The magic of 2008 has been snuffed by the reality of OhBama's economy. Republicans are fired up like no other time I can recall. Turnout is on my side, not yours, and the polls reflect the opposite. You're a smart person, so think about it.

    What about Virgil Goode in VA? If he gets enough votes Obama will take the state. Last I heard Virgil was polling at 9%. That was a month ago.

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    One thing is for sure, if Obama wins and if a conservative justice on SCOTUS retires and gets replaced by an Obama pick, it is game over. America will lurch progressively left and cease any resemblance of what our Founders created (if that hasn't already occurred).

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    Quote Originally Posted by Peter1469 View Post
    What about Virgil Goode in VA? If he gets enough votes Obama will take the state. Last I heard Virgil was polling at 9%. That was a month ago.
    If true, that 9% would have never voted at all, IMO. You're in NOVA, not exactly an accurate demographic of the state, not by a long shot.

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    my junk is ugly

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