Turkey on collison course with Syria

[Ransom]

Centered between Turkish and rebel forces in the north, the Kurds in the east and west, and the Syrian regime forces in the south, al-Bab is the point of convergence for the three competing interests in northern Syria

Great article on these three competing interests...considering each of the interests has its backers as well.

With each side committed to its own gameplan, a military confrontation between the Turkish-led Euphrates Shield and pro-regime forces appear inescapable. More generally, Thursday’s attack should be an acute reminder that tensions between Ankara and Moscow are a mere spark away from reigniting the flames of only a year ago.

Russia now deeply involved, the shooting down of the Russian Jet by Turkey mentioned here.

Further compounding the complexity is the US-led Coalition’s support for YPG advances in Syria, reluctantly seeing the Kurdish group and its SDF allies as the only effective local partner to destroy ISIS. This pragmatic partnership has been a major source of tension between Ankara and Washington for over a year, and the reason why Turkey launched operation Euphrates Shield without coordination with the anti-ISIS Coalition.

Current policies under this President of course, in tatters.

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archiv...ts-backers.php

[Peter1469]

The Sunnis and Shia have been at war on and off for centuries.

[Ransom]

Also, water is wet.

[Peter1469]

Also, water is wet.

So you think you can fix their problems?

Especially with democracy as opposed to a totalitarian government.

[AeonPax]

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I liked the article. It was straight forward without the use of overt, subjective language. Factual more than editorialized.

[Cigar]

Don't worry, Donald will have the negotiated in One (1) Tweet, on Saturday January 21st.

[donttread]

Also, water is wet.

Slightly MORE obvious than water being wet is the fact that your beloved interventionism has not helped and should not even be a consideration in this impending clash.

[waltky]

The West cannot afford losing Turkey to Russia and Iran...

The West cannot afford losing Turkey to Russia and Iran

Tue August 14, 2018 - Turkey's national currency, the lira, has tumbled by nearly 40% against the US dollar so far this year.

Relations between the two countries reached a low point on Friday, as US President Donald Trump approved the doubling of tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminium in response to Turkey's refusal to release Andrew Brunson -- an American pastor who is under house arrest in Turkey and facing terror charges. Turkey's President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has so far resisted pressure to implement monetary and fiscal orthodoxy, choosing instead to lash out at both the financial markets and the US. He has suggested that there is a global plot that aims to destroy Turkey's political and economic achievements.


So far, his domestic popularity has been on the rise, as he taps into the anti-US sentiment (and willingness to believe in conspiracy theories) that exists among much of the Turkish population. Erdogan's stubborn response to Turkey's economic meltdown has resembled the populist playbook of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, rather than the market-friendly posturing of Argentinian President Mauricio Macri. Turkey, unlike Argentina, does not seem poised to turn to the International Monetary Fund in order to stave off financial collapse, nor to mend relations with Washington.


If anything, the Turkish President looks to be doubling down in challenging the US and the global financial markets -- two formidable opponents. In all likelihood, Turkey will lose any fight it picks with New York, London, Singapore and other bastions of finance -- unless a ceasefire is declared. And the lira's collapse will translate into a financial and economic meltdown for Turkey. As that process unfolds, it will likely undermine Erdogan's domestic appeal, even among his most committed ideological supporters, and unleash political instability in its wake. But the outcome will be a long, drawn-out and complex affair that could promote military interference in politics and generate ramifications beyond Turkey's borders.


Turkey would probably no longer view the US as a reliable partner and strategic ally. Whoever ends up leading the country, a wounded Turkey would most likely seek to shift the center of gravity away from the West and toward Russia, Iran and Eurasia. It would make Turkey less in tune with US and European objectives in the Middle East, meaning Turkey would seek to assert a more independent security and defense policy.


MORE

[Ransom]

Doubling down on challenging US markets?

Uhhh….Recep......yeah....I don't want to be all critical.....don't want to look anti-Turk.....but don't take your mitten off and slap the US across the face with it, you'll want to remain a strong trading partner. Let the Brunson Pastor free, this isn't a fight you want to pick. You want to cozy up to Putin, we're good with that. Want to withdraw from NATO, you be our guest. We'll send your ships back empty, we'll cut you off, isolate you.

[Mr.Soxes]

ASSAD WINNING!