North Korea's nukes

[waltky]

Not much hope for No. Korean denuclearization...

North Korea defector says Kim Jong Un unlikely to denuclearize
Feb. 9, 2017 - The North Korean leader could bring war if he suspected plans of a pre-emptive strike, said Thae Yong-ho.

The senior North Korea diplomat who defected to the South from Pyongyang's embassy in London said it is unlikely North Korea would pursue the path of denuclearization, owing to "internal factors" of the regime and U.S.-South Korea requirements for engagement. Thae Yong-ho, who has been providing the local press with revelations about the North Korean leadership since his defection, said Kim Jong Un could agree to a nuclear freeze but on the condition of suspended sanctions and an end to military exercises.

Speaking at a conference on regional security held by the government-run Institute for National Security Strategy, Thae said it's likely neither Washington nor Seoul would meet those demands, local news service Money Today reported Thursday. Even if North Korea agrees to a nuclear freeze, a final stage of denuclearization may not be achieved because of Kim's beliefs. "Whether it's Kim Jong Un or Kim Jong Il, they have seen the last days of other dictators," Thae said. "[They saw] there are no dictators who survive."

A magazine features the North Korean leadership on its cover in Beijing, China. A high-profile defector said Thursday Kim Jong Un is wary of what would happen to him in the event of a North Korea collapse.

Thae added Kim is not afraid to bring about a cataclysm to the peninsula with a "If I die, you die too" frame of mind, should he be convinced the United States and South Korea are planning a pre-emptive strike. North Korean officials who object to the nuclear program are quickly eliminated, Thae said.

The high-profile defector also said the 1994 Agreed Framework, a nuclear freeze agreement reached between the United States and North Korea, was not a deal North Korea believed in, local news service EDaily reported. Rather, the deal was seen as a way for Kim Jong Il to "buy time and postpone a U.S. strike," while the former leader prepared a road map to stabilize North Korea in the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union.

North Korea defector says Kim Jong Un unlikely to denuclearize - UPI.com

See also:

North Korea secretly producing highly enriched uranium, analyst says
Feb. 8, 2017 -- North Korea could have about 100 pounds of plutonium and 600 pounds of highly enriched uranium in its arsenal, a South Korean analyst said Thursday, local time.

Lee Sang-hyun, a chief researcher at the Sejong Institute, a South Korean think tank, said at a conference in Seoul North Korea could have been secretly producing highly enriched uranium, or HEU, while staying relatively undetected, Yonhap reported. HEU can be produced in small-scale facilities, unlike plutonium that requires larger stations like nuclear reactors, Lee said. Lee said his findings indicate North Korea can produce about 13 pounds of plutonium annually, while its cache of HEU increases by 176 pounds every year.

Under leader Kim Jong Un, North Korea has been producing significant amounts of fissile material, a South Korean analyst said

The South Korean researcher said it typically takes 4-13 pounds of plutonium to produce a nuclear warhead, and 33-44 pounds of HEU to make a similar payload. "North Korea appears to have used HEU in its fifth nuclear test [last September], and the demonstration of a relatively strong explosive power can mean the country has produced enough HEU," Lee said. The amount of fissile material in North Korea's possession means it is at an advantage when miniaturizing nuclear warheads. The country can produce more nuclear weapons with smaller quantities of nuclear material, the researcher said. Lee said "pressure diplomacy" must be strengthened while making it known to the North the objective is not the collapse or the removal of the regime.

Park Byung-kwan, a director at government-run Institute for National Security Strategy, said he is concerned about the "void in South Korean leadership." Park also said North Korea could go ahead with the test-launch of a long-range missile if Pyongyang decides it did not make a breakthrough in U.S.-North Korea relations with the new Trump administration. North Korea has previously requested a peace treaty from the United States, and recognition as a nuclear weapons state.

North Korea secretly producing highly enriched uranium, analyst says - UPI.com

[Doublejack]

Option #4 - Nuke the entire site from orbit.

[Crepitus]

Option #4 - Nuke the entire site from orbit.

Too close to China. (both physically and politically) That's the whole reason there is still a North Korean regime.

[waltky]

Why this N Korea missile test is different...

North Korea missile test: What's changed?
Mon, 13 Feb 2017 - The type of missile system tested by North Korea on 12 February can be deployed and launched quickly.

On the morning of 12 February, North Korea conducted a ballistic missile test launch from Banghyon air base near the west coast of the country. Like all such launches, the test took place in defiance of UN Security Council resolutions. Pyongyang's press release, issued a day later, indicated that the missile - the Pukguksong-2 - was of the same type as one test-fired from a submarine off the east coast in August 2016.

What is different about this missile?

Unlike North Korea's other long-range land-based missiles, the system tested on 12 February used solid fuel. Until now, the country's comparable land-based missile systems have been liquid-fuelled. Pyongyang also announced that the launch vehicle carrying the new missile is indigenously made and uses a continuous or "caterpillar" track, rather than wheels with tyres.

The use of solid fuel reduces the time needed to launch the missile

Previously North Korea has imported and modified foreign-made trucks to transport and launch its missiles. A domestic manufacturing capability will negate the need to convince or fool foreign suppliers into selling these vehicles. Continuous track also suggests that North Korea's intention may be to take the missiles off-road, making it more difficult to detect imminent launches.

What are the implications of the use of solid fuel?

Missiles using liquid fuel require greater preparation time than those using solid fuel. They also require a larger constellation of support vehicles to accompany each launch vehicle. Both of these considerations make it more likely that an enemy might detect the missile in time to conduct a pre-emptive strike. Solid fuel substantially reduces this vulnerability. North Korea will be able to roll these systems out of concealed storage and launch them with minimal preparation, drastically shrinking the time that an adversary would have to find and kill the missile. The capability thus represents a major step forward for North Korea.

Read more

See also:

North Korean missile test may have been big step forward
Feb 13,`17 -- Beyond the usual, lofty propaganda, North Korea's test of a new intermediate-range ballistic missile contains an important, potentially worrying development.

The country's jubilant young dictator, Kim Jong Un, said the missile provides the country with another nuclear attack capability. Sunday's launch - the first major North Korean challenge for U.S. President Donald Trump - is drawing intense scrutiny from outside weapons experts because of North Korea's claim to have used solid fuel. If true, it would be a big step forward in North Korea's quest to boost its ability to attack the United States and its close allies, South Korea and Japan. Instead of relying on missiles that have to be fueled on a fixed launch pad, North Korea's military could drive the new missiles anywhere and fire them at will from mobile launchers. Here's a look at Sunday's launch and what it means for security on an already tense Korean Peninsula.

"MODERN FUEL"

The fuel in solid-fuel rockets is already loaded inside, which can shorten launch preparation times, increase the weapon's mobility and make it harder for outsiders to detect what's happening before liftoff. Most of North Korea's missiles currently use liquid propellant, which usually needs to be added on a launch pad before the weapon is fired. The rockets North Korea has used for satellite launches in recent years, which were condemned by the U.N. as tests of banned long-range missile technology, relied on liquid fuel. "Liquid fuel is like a technology from the 1960s and '70s, while solid fuel is a modern fuel for missiles," said Lee Choon Geun, an analyst from South Korea's state-funded Science and Technology Policy Institute. "That's why we think their latest launch (with solid fuel) is a serious development."

A man watches a TV news program showing a photo published in North Korea's Rodong Sinmun newspaper of North Korea's "Pukguksong-2" missile launch, at Seoul Railway station in Seoul, South Korea, Monday, Feb. 13, 2017. In an implicit challenge to President Donald Trump, North Korea fired a ballistic missile early Sunday in its first such test of the year. The sign read " Pukguksong-2."

Before Sunday's test, analysts thought North Korea's solid-fuel weapons were limited to a submarine-launched ballistic missile that the country test-fired last August and short-range KN-02 missiles. This latest test is important because, if confirmed, North Korea would have a missile that could be launched anywhere from a ground-based mobile vehicle. While submarines are also a stealthy way to do that, North Korea doesn't have enough of them. There are doubts that the KN-02 missile, whose range is about 120 kilometers (75 miles), can carry nuclear warheads.

North Korea's claim couldn't be independently confirmed, but Lee said video and photos of the launch appear to show that the missile used solid fuel. A South Korean defense official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of department rules, also said that U.S. and South Korean military surveillance equipment showed it probably used solid fuel. North Korean media quoted Kim Jong Un as saying that North Korea's rocket industry "has radically turned" from liquid-fuel engines to high thrust solid fuel-powered ones.

PUKGUKSONG-2

[waltky]

Analysis of No. Korean missile up inna air...

North Korea launch was upgraded sub-launched missile
Feb. 13, 2017 - North Korea may be developing a ground-to-ground ballistic missile capability for its SLBM.

South Korea says the missile North Korea tested Sunday is an upgraded version of a submarine-launched ballistic missile the regime fired last August. North Korea made the identical claim, and said the SLBM KN-11, also known as the Pukguksong-1, or Polaris-1, was the base model for the latest launch, South Korean newspaper Hankyoreh reported Monday. The Sunday launch of the Pukguksong-2 was prominently displayed on the pages of the Workers' Party newspaper Rodong Sinmun on Monday. But immediately after reports of the launch, evaluations of the rocket have diverged across different government agencies in Seoul.

South Korea's military said Sunday the rocket is a "new solid-propulsion long-range missile," and later on Monday Seoul's joint chiefs said the "Pukguksong-2 appears to be a solid-fuel driven midrange ballistic missile," or IRBM. Military authorities in Seoul now believe the missile is an improved version of the Pukguksong-1, North Korea's SLBM, News 1 reported. A joint chief official who spoke to the news service on the condition of anonymity said the military is investigating whether North Korea is in the midst of developing a ground-to-ground ballistic missile capability for its SLBM.

A North Korea missile launched Sunday is an upgraded SLBM, according to several sources in South Korea.

But the Seoul official said it is not possible at this point to conclude whether the Pukguksong-1 is capable of being mounted with a miniaturized nuclear warhead. "We cannot make a judgment on the extent and nature of North Korea propaganda that claims it has miniaturized nuclear warheads," the official said.

Chae Yeon-seok, a scientist at Korea University of Science and Technology in Daejeon, confirmed that the missile launched on Sunday was not strikingly different from the Pukguksong-1. "Basically, the technology of the two [missiles] is the same," Chae told Yonhap. South Korean Defense Minister Han Min-koo issued a strong response to the launch on Monday, and requested the country's 13th Air Operations Command to check for military preparedness. North Korea claimed Sunday the anti-missile defense system THAAD and South Korea's "Kill Chain" strategy to destroy and detect missiles will not defend against its projectiles.

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-Ne...&utm_medium=15