Outlines of a Syrian peace take shape
It seems to be US led. Anyway, this is what it looks like- I will highlight what I think is key.
If Iran's influence can be lessened, that would be icing on the cake.
- The Assad regime in some form will continue to govern Syria in its full territory but with significantly expanded participation by the Sunni rebel elements.
- Several areas of Syria will have significant autonomy. In particular, the future of the Kurdish region (now informally called Rojava) will be negotiated. The region will be fully brought under formal control by Damascus (anything less than full Damascus authority is unacceptable to Turkey) but will enjoy significant independence much as Kurdish regions do in Iraq.
- Iran’s military will largely withdraw as the fighting tapers off, but Iran will leave behind a sizeable “advise and assist force” at least as large as the U.S. presence in Iraq, now numbering at last 450. Iran will seek to retain political influence in Damascus but will be reduced as the world returns. Hezbollah will return to Lebanon and expand its (already dominant) role there. Many indications are they will continue to have their hands full at home with Sunni militants.
- Turkey will play a key role in all these developments, as all the above fit into Turkish objectives.
- The U.S. will also play a key role in these developments, as they all fit into U.S. policy objectives (except the now almost forgotten 2011/2012 Red Line demand for Bashar Al Assad to step down). These include ensuring Israeli security; reducing Iranian influence; ensuring support by the Sunni Arab states.
- Such an outcome as noted above largely fits the policy objectives of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt.
- The big losers in this scenario are ISIS, which is in the process of being virtually eliminated as an entity and forced underground, and Iran. The Iranians will have spent billions of dollars and thousands of lives to protect the Assad regime - only to have their Sunni opponents negotiated back into power and Shia influence in Damascus reduced. Foremost in Iran’s mind is the extent of Russia’s interest, as the Russians may support a political settlement in Syria to gain leverage in Ukraine and Crimea, which may account for the visit to Russia this week of the commander of Iran’s Quds Force, General Qasem Soleimani.
- Sanctions against Syrian and Russian officials and businessmen will gradually be eliminated as the new Syrian State takes shape. These will be part of the negotiations that all parties, including the U.S., will participate.
- The new Syrian constitution must avoid the sectarian character of the Iraqi constitution. This will not likely be an obstacle as Syria had always been a protector of minority rights, for both religious and ethnic groups. That one of those minorities lead the Assad regime itself is more convincing proof they will not be sectarian.
- The reconstruction of Syria has been estimated at $1 Trillion and won’t be funded solely by the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. China has maintained diplomatic relations with Syria throughout the conflict and had the money and the engineering firms who will want the business. So will Russian companies. This will be attractive to Assad as he can dilute Iran’s economic investment with Chinese money and he builds his relationship with China, his second UN Security Council patron. However, China’s money comes at a price. They require secure, concessional terms for access to vast array of raw materials, from minerals and mines and metals to energy and all other inputs. And China will limit its exposure until it is sure the increased political participation by the Sunni rebels will not limit its ability to make deals with the Assad government. Equally essential for China is access to markets for the sale of Chinese manufactured industrial and finished consumer goods. Syria will not be a wealthy, thriving market for large volumes of manufactured good for some years at least. The result would be limits on Chinese enthusiasm and concomitant volume of investment funds.
- The plight of the estimated 6 million refugees is fearsome. They should be returned to their homes whenever possible, but the process will take decades. Refugees with the skills useful for reconstruction should be the first returnees. Funds will be woefully inadequate, and, for the foreseeable future, most of the various Syrian governing bodies will be preoccupied with restoring basic services and social needs such as schools, courts, and clinics and hospitals.