Is War With North Korea Inevitable?

[Peter1469]

Just curious, what we use an excuse to bomb them and does anyone think China would just stand by and do nothing? I would love to see NK brought to it's knees but that said I thought we supposed to avoiding staring new conflicts yet here we are taking about another war, one that could lead to many deaths especially if it escalated. I do hope that the powers that be think this out really well before doing something rash that could drag us into a conflict we neither want or can afford.

China understands that North Korea is playing with fire.

[Peter1469]

North Korea Is Approaching the Red Line

Geopolitical Futures discusses the North Korean / nuclear weapons issue.

Also like all other despotisms, the despot sleeps uneasily. There have been reports of members of the Kim family being executed by packs of wild dogs and anti-aircraft guns. To some extent this may be South Korean propaganda. But it all becomes more credible after the recent killing of Kim Jong Un’s half-brother in Malaysia by two women who smeared VX nerve agent on his face. Given that he killed another relative, once more by a novel means, it is becoming likely that Kim Jong Un feels insecure. His therapy for insecurity, like all despots, is killing anyone – including relatives – who might threaten him.

This all goes along with a theory I developed on North Korea years ago. I said that North Korea’s goal was to survive the collapse of the Soviet Union and decrease any ideological bond that might remain with China. In order to do this, the North Koreans adopted a strategy focused on convincing the world of three somewhat contradictory things.


The first was that North Korea was an extremely dangerous country, and that it was powerful and likely to strike a devastating blow at any action. This would deter any attempt to attack North Korea or destroy the regime. Second, the North Koreans sought to project an air of insanity. Random, pointless acts of violence and bizarre pronouncements were designed to convince the world that not only is North Korea dangerous, but it is also quite mad. This was intended to persuade everyone that they should not try invading North Korea, or even consider it. Even the whiff of danger would push the North Koreans over the edge. Finally, and paradoxically, North Korea sought to appear weak. Widely publicized famines, ancient factories and the other accoutrements of misery indicated that trying to destroy North Korea’s regime would be pointless. It might topple any day.


A nuclear program firing random ballistic missiles (as we saw this week), insane threats, and evidence of extraordinary poverty and political instability all combined to prevent any action that someone might want to take, assuming anyone wanted to take action. North Korea appeared to be powerful, quite mad, and about to collapse. These are incompatible notions, but they gave everyone good reasons not to attack. Those who feared North Korea, those who believed North Korea was a lunatic bin, and those who felt North Korea was close to collapsing all drew the same policy conclusion: Do not attack North Korea. It was a brilliant ploy, and a regime that had no business surviving the 1990s did

This article can help one see North Korea's actions as rational, from their point of view, as opposed to irrational or insane.

Read the rest at the link.

[Peter1469]

Donald Trump sends B-52 NUCLEAR BOMBERS to South Korea after North fires missiles at Japan and US warns of ‘overwhelming’ response

That is some serious firepower.

Earlier this week, trigger-happy Kim pushed his luck once more when he fired off four ballistic missiles into the seas near Japan.Now President Donald Trump is reportedly now planning to fly in B-1 and B-52 bombers – built to carry nuclear bombs – to show he’s had enough.


South Korea and the US have also started their annual Foal Eagle military exercise sending a strong warning to North Korea over its actions.


A military official said 300,000 South Korean troops and 15,000 US personnel are taking part in the operation.

[Peter1469]

U.N. Security Council holds emergency talks on N. Korea

I don't expect the Security Council to do anything useful expect issue harshly worded warnings.

The U.N. Security Council on Wednesday convened an emergency meeting to address North Korea's latest test-firing of ballistic missiles in violation of U.N. resolutions.

The move came a day after the 15-member council in a press statement "strongly condemned" the test, carried out Monday morning local time, as a "grave violation" of Pyongyang's international obligations.


"The most important thing of course is to reduce tension and also to get on the track of dialogue, to seek progress in denuclearization and also to maintain peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula," Chinese Ambassador to the United Nations Liu Jieyi told reporters just prior to the meeting.


Japanese Ambassador Koro Bessho said the missile launch is "totally unacceptable," noting it is important the Security Council "discuss this and try to think through about what further actions to take."


On Monday, Pyongyang fired ballistic missiles that landed in waters as close as 300-350 kilometers off Japan's northwest coast. North Korea's official media has reported that the launch was a drill simulating a strike on U.S. military bases in Japan.


In the statement, the council members also "deplore all the Democratic People's Republic of Korea ballistic missile activities" and "expressed serious concern" over the country's "increasingly destabilizing behavior and defiance." North Korea's official name is the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

[waltky]

Granny says, "Dat's right - time fer regime change in No. Korea...

Pentagon: Invasion Only Way to Destroy North Korea’s Nuclear Arsenal
November 05, 2017 - The only way for the U.S. to discover the extent of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal and destroy it is through a ground invasion.

The Pentagon made that assertion in a letter to lawmakers who wanted to know about the logistics and human cost of any conflict with North Korea. The letter from Rear Admiral Michael J. Dumont of the Joint Chiefs of Staff told the lawmakers that a classified briefing “would be the best place to discuss in detail the capability of the U.S. and its allies to counter North Korea’s ability to respond with a nuclear weapon and eliminate North Korea’s nuclear weapons located in deeply buried, underground facilities.”

South Korean Army K1A1 and U.S. Army M1A2 tanks fire live rounds during a U.S.-South Korea joint live-fire military exercise near the demilitarized zone separating the two Koreas in Pocheon, South Korea

House members Ted Lieu of California and Ruben Gallego of Arizona, both Democrats, requested the information. On Saturday, 15 Democratic lawmakers and one Republican issued a statement in response to Dumont’s missive, also released Saturday, saying that they found the measures needed to destroy the North’s arsenal “deeply disturbing” and urged U.S. President Donald Trump to stop making cavalier remarks about the tense situation in North Korea.


Lieu told The Washington Post “it’s important for people to understand what a war with a nuclear power would look like.” He said of the 300,000 people who could potentially die in the initial days, more than 100,000 could be Americans. Gallego said the lawmakers “want to make sure that there is full transparency and information out there about what can occur if our civilian leaders make wrong calculations.”


https://www.voanews.com/a/pentagon-s...l/4101380.html

See also:


Invasion ‘only way’ to destroy NK’s nukes
Mon, Nov 06, 2017 - The only way to locate and destroy with complete certainty all components of North Korea’s nuclear weapons program is through a ground invasion. That blunt assessment from the Pentagon is in response to a letter from two Democratic congressmen asking about casualty assessments in a conflict with North Korea.

Rear Admiral Michael Dumont of the Joint Staff Chiefs of Staff offered the assessment in response to a letter from US representatives Ted Lieu and Ruben Gallego. Dumont said that the US is evaluating North Korea’s ability to target heavily populated areas of South Korea with long-range artillery, rockets and ballistic missiles. The amount of casualties would differ depending on the advance warning and the ability of US and South Korea forces to counter these attacks, he said.


“A classified briefing would be the best place to discuss in detail the capability of the US and its allies to discuss capabilities to counter North Korea’s ability to respond with a nuclear weapon and eliminate North Korea’s nuclear weapons located in deeply buried, underground facilities,” he said. He also mentioned the possibility that chemical and biological weapons might be used by the North in case of a conflict. Military officials would be happy to join “the intelligence community to address these issues in a classified briefing,” he said.


In a statement issued on Saturday, 15 Democratic lawmakers and one Republican— all military veterans — called the assessment that a ground invasion would be required to destroy the North’s nuclear arsenal “deeply disturbing” and that such an action “could result in hundreds of thousands, or even millions of deaths in just the first few days of fighting.” “It is our intent to have a full public accounting of the potential cost of war, so the American people understand the commitment we would be making as a nation if we were to pursue military action,” they said, adding that the Trump administration “has failed to articulate any plans to prevent the military conflict from expanding beyond the Korean Peninsula and to manage what happens after the conflict is over.” “With that in mind, the thought of sending troops into harm’s way and expending resources on another potentially unwinnable war is chilling. The president needs to stop making provocative statements that hinder diplomatic options and put American troops further at risk,” they said.


http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/worl.../06/2003681780

[waltky]

No.Korea backs off from giving up nukes...

Now North Korea Says It’s Not Interested in Talks That Will ‘Force Us to Give Up Nukes’
May 16, 2018 | A day after North Korea hinted that next month’s summit between Kim Jong-un and President Trump could be in jeopardy, a senior official in Pyongyang said the regime is “not interested” in nuclear talks where it comes under pressure to “unilaterally” abandon its nuclear weapons.

In comments released through the official KCNA news agency, Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye Gwan said the regime was not interested in talks that are an attempt “to push us unilaterally into a corner and force us to give up nukes.” Kim Kye Gwan served as North Korea’s nuclear negotiator during the ultimately ill-fated “six-party talks” a decade ago. In his comments Wednesday, he also criticized U.S. officials – National Security Advisor John Bolton in particular – who have suggested that a North Korea denuclearization push should follow the “Libya model.” It was preposterous, he said, to compare a country whose nuclear weapons program was in the initial stages – Muammar Gaddafi’s Libya in 2003 – with North Korea, which already possesses a nuclear arsenal.

Kim Kye Gwan also alluded to the fate of Gaddafi, as well as that of Saddam Hussein, referring to “sinister moves to impose on our dignified state the destiny of Libya or Iraq which had been collapsed due to yielding of their countries to big powers.” And he said North Korea does not hide its “feeling of repugnance” towards Bolton. The diatribe from Pyongyang comes a day after the regime abruptly canceled scheduled North-South talks, and suggested that the Kim-Trump meeting – scheduled for June 12 in Singapore – could be at risk too. In that statement, KCNA lashed out at joint U.S.-South Korean air drills now underway, calling them a “deliberate military provocation” that went against the trend of an improving situation on the Korean peninsula.

It said the drills, known as “Max Thunder” were a rehearsal for invasion of North Korea, and that it was calling off Wednesday’s talks in the face of the “mad-cap North-targeted war and confrontation racket.” The U.S. “have to think twice about the fate" of the Kim-Trump summit, KCNA said. Kim ‘understands’ joint military exercises must continue The wargames cited by the regime have been conducted, twice a year, for the past decade – beginning three years before Kim succeeded his late father.

Described by Pacific Air Forces as the largest flying exercise held on the Korean peninsula, its aim is to increase the interoperability of the different aircraft used by the U.S. and South Korean air forces, “enabling the two allies to be battle-ready.” State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert recalled that Kim Jong Un is himself reported to have expressed understanding for the ongoing U.S.-South Korea military maneuvers. “What we have to go on is what Kim Jong-un had said before – that he understands and appreciates the importance to the United States of having these joint exercises,” she told a briefing. On the day that the plan for a Kim-Trump summit was first made public, on March 8, South Korean national security advisor Chung Eui-yong briefed Trump at the White House about his mission to Pyongyang several days earlier.

MORE

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Pompeo: ‘America's Interest Here is Preventing the Risk that NK Will Launch a Nuclear Weapon Into LA’
May 14, 2018 | Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Fox News yesterday that the ultimate purpose of the deal the President Donald Trump wants to strike with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is to ensure that North Korea gives up the capability of being able to strike the United States with a nuclear weapon.

Pompeo also indicated that the U.S. is ready to assure the North Korean regime that the U.S. will not threaten its continued existence if it agrees to this. “But make no mistake about it: America's interest here is preventing the risk that North Korea will launch a nuclear weapon into L.A. or Denver or into the very place we're sitting here this morning,” Pompeo said in an interview with Chris Wallace. Trump is set to meet with Kim in Singapore on June 12:

Here is the excerpt from Pompeo’s interview on Fox where he explains what Trump is trying to achieve in his meeting with Kim:

Wallace: “And as part of that, are we, in effect, saying to Kim: If you give us what we want, you can stay on in power?”

Pompeo: “We will have to provide security assurances to be sure. This has been a tradeoff that has been pending for 25 years. No president has ever put America in a position where the North Korean leadership thought that this was truly possible, that the Americans would actually do this, would lead to the place where America was no longer held at risk by the North Korean regime. That's the objectives. When I said earlier this week that I think Chairman Kim shares the objectives with the American people, I am convinced of that. Now, the task is for President Trump and he to meet to validate the process by which this would go forward, to set out those markers so that we can negotiate this outcome.”

Wallace: “Do you have any problem, given Kim's history and the history of his family as an oppressive regime, any problems with the idea of the U.S., even if we get our deal, in effect, giving a security guarantee to the Kim regime?”

Pompeo: “Look, we'll have to see how the negotiations proceed, but make no mistake about it: America's interest here is preventing the risk that North Korea will launch a nuclear weapon into LA or Denver or into the very place we're sitting here this morning, Chris. That's our objective, that's the end state the president has laid out, and that's the mission that he sent me on this past week to put us on the trajectory to go achieve that.”

https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article...launch-nuclear