IMPress Polly (11-05-2012)
ABSOLUTE FINAL 2012 U.S. ELECTION PREDICTION:
Okay, I did indeed have to make some minor revisions to my previous prediction on Friday. The revisions are as follows:
-For the presidential election, I have shifted three states within the Romney category: I have moved Colorado into "certain" territory for Romney and I have moved Florida and Virginia out of "certain" territory and into "likely" for Romney, to be as safe as I can. I have also moved Wisconsin and Iowa into secure Obama territory. I feel least confident in my predictions for Virginia, Florida, and New Hampshire. I could be wrong about any or all of those, but my instinct, based on a combination of current polling data and seeming early voting patterns is believe that the former two will probably wind up going for Romney, while the latter will go for Obama. But I am almost absolutely certain (95% confident) that President Obama will win re-election tomorrow.
-Concerning my predictions for the House of Representatives, I have slightly decreased my prediction on the number of seats Democrats will gain from 5 to 3. No big deal really.
-Concerning the state governorships, I have now made a commitment to the number that I forecast Republicans will gain: It will be 2, not 3. The difference lies in that I've moved New Hampshire into the Democratic column for my prediction because I suspect it's most likely to go that way, though I could be wrong.
As for the Senate, I see no reason to make any changes to my forecast from the OP. I'm still predicting that there will be no change whatsoever in terms of the Senate's overall partisan balance.
Okay, that said, here is the detailed final breakdown I'm predicting:
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:
Definite Obama states:
1. Maine
2. Rhode Island
3. Vermont
4. Massachusetts
5. Connecticut
6. New York
7. New Jersey
8. Delaware
9. Pennsylvania
10. Maryland
11. Ohio
12. Michigan
13. Wisconsin
14. Illinois
15. Minnesota
16. Iowa
17. New Mexico
18. Nevada
19. Washington
20. Oregon
21. California
22. Hawaii
Likely Obama states:
23. New Hampshire
Definite Romney states:
1. North Carolina
2. South Carolina
3. West Virgina
4. Kentucky
5. Tennessee
6. Georgia
7. Indiana
8. Alabama
9. Mississippi
10. Missouri
11. Arkansas
12. Louisiana
13. North Dakota
14. South Dakota
15. Nebraska
16. Kansas
17. Oklahoma
18. Texas
19. Colorado
20. Montana
21. Wyoming
22. Utah
23. Arizona
24. Idaho
25. Alaska
Likely Romney states:
26. Virginia
27. Florida
According to my forecast above, I predict the following outcome in electoral votes:
Obama: 281 <-- Winner. (I'm 95% certain that President Obama will win re-election tomorrow.)
Romney: 257
THE SENATE:
Current Scenario:
51 Democrats
47 Republicans
2 Independents who caucus with Democrats
33 seats are up for election. Of those 33 seats, 21 are held by Democrats, 10 by Republicans, and 2 by independents who caucus with Democrats. Republicans thus have a mathematical advantage.
EFFECTIVELY: 53 Democrats, 47 Republicans
My Prediction:
Stays in the Democratic Camp:
1. Rhode Island
2. Vermont
3. Connecticut
4. New York
5. New Jersey
6. Delaware
7. Pennsylvania
8. Maryland
9. Virginia
10. Florida
11. West Virginia
12. Ohio
13. Michigan
14. Wisconsin
15. Minnesota
16. Missouri
17. New Mexico
18. Washington
19. California
20. Hawaii
Switches from Republican to Democratic Camp:
21. Massachusetts
22. Maine
23. Indiana
Stays Republican:
1. Tennessee
2. Mississippi
3. Texas
4. Wyoming
5. Utah
6. Arizona
7. Nevada
Switches from Democratic to Republican:
8. North Dakota
9. Nebraska
10. Montana
Prediction of the End Result:
Democrats: 51 <-- Winners. (I am 100% confident that the Democrats will retain control of the Senate.)
Republicans: 47
Independents: 2 (both Democratic-leaning)
EFFECTIVELY: 53 Democrats, 47 Republicans, i.e. the status quo exactly in terms of totals. Nothing will essentially change, in other words.
THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
Current Situation:
Republicans: 240
Democrats: 190
Vacant Seats: 5
My Prediction: Democrats experience a net gain of 3 seats.
FINAL BALANCE:
239 Republicans <-- Winners. (I'm 100% confident that Republicans will retain control of the House.)
196 Democrats.
Republicans will retain control of the House, but with a slightly diminished majority. Basically the status quo will continue.
STATE GOVERNORSHIPS
Current balance of state governorships:
29 Republicans
20 Democrats
11 states will have gubernatorial elections concurrent with the November 6th general elections this year, out of which 8 seats are presently held by Democrats and 3 by Republicans, giving Republicans a huge mathematical advantage.
My Prediction:
Stays Democratic
1. New Hampshire
2. Vermont
3. Delaware
4. West Virginia
5. Missouri
6. Washington
Stays Republican
1. Indiana
2. North Dakota
3. Utah
Switches From Democratic Camp to Republican Camp:
1. North Carolina
2. Montana
In other words, Republicans will probably pick up 2 governorships on balance.
FINAL BALANCE PREDICTION:
32 Republican governors <-- Winners. (I'm 100% confident that Republicans will increase their number of governorships.)
18 Democratic governors
Notes: You can print this forecast out if you want and check mark off the ones I got right tomorrow morning. I may have gotten a few of the details wrong, but I would put any amount of money on the notion that President Obama will win re-election, that the Senate will remain in the hands of the Democrats, that the House will remain in the hands of the Republicans, and that Republicans will gain a minimal number of state governorships (minimal considering their huge mathematical advantage in that category this year). This is a status quo election through and through. Bet money on it if you want. It's not gambling because you won't lose.
Last edited by IMPress Polly; 11-05-2012 at 07:51 AM.
Peter1469 (11-05-2012)
Yea ... Mitt looks like he's ready to go home an work on that elevator.
Correcting a math error I made on the governorships. My forecast SHOULD have read...
FINAL BALANCE PREDICTION:
31 Republican governors <-- Winners. (I'm 100% confident that Republicans will increase their number of governorships.)
19 Democratic governors <-- This actually includes one independent who will align with Democrats.
The Republicans presently have 29 state governorships. If they win two more, as I've predicted, they'll wind up with 31, not 32.
ALSO:
I said that "You can print this forecast out if you want and check mark off the ones I got right tomorrow morning." I don't know what I was thinking there! Election day is tomorrow, not today obviously, so you might want to check mark them off on Wednesday morning, not tomorrow morning. My bad!
(I would've just edited the other post rather than making a new one, but it won't let me edit it anymore.)
Last edited by IMPress Polly; 11-05-2012 at 11:39 AM.
Peter1469 (11-05-2012)
Please note: verbage enclosed by < > indicates sarcasm
"There's class war alright. But it's my class that's making the war. And we're winning it." - Warren Buffet
IMPress Polly (11-05-2012),Larry Dickman (11-05-2012)
If Mitt is bringing his big guns to PA, he's wasting a lot of transportation costs (not that he cares...). PA is not really in play here. The middle of the state might go to Romney, but that's in no way going to give him the state.
If Obama does win, which i think he will, he will just have to endure another 4 years of repub obstructionism. That's all it comes down to, and all at the cost of America's future.
Please note: verbage enclosed by < > indicates sarcasm
"There's class war alright. But it's my class that's making the war. And we're winning it." - Warren Buffet
Actually, only two more years of it are for certain. There will be Congressional elections in 2014 after all. With the slowly recovering economy and with the expansion of Medicaid (the main factor that will drastically reduce the number of uninsured Americans) that will be coming into play beginning in January, I have a feeling the president, and by down-ballot effect his party, will be qualitatively more popular by then. They are obviously already more popular than in 2010.bladimz wrote:
If Obama does win, which i think he will, he will just have to endure another 4 years of repub obstructionism.
The polls reveal where the momentum lies and it's been with President Obama since the hurricane hit, given his effective and popular response.Peter wrote:
Polly, how do you take into consideration the concept of momentum and the likelihood of turning out to vote.
As I see it Obama supporters are much less enthusiastic than last time, and the GOP is much more so than last time.
I think that Romney will comfortably win.
If we had a real media in the US it would be a historic landslide.
As to degrees of enthusiasm, it very much seems to me that both sides are solidly convinced that their presidential candidate is going to win. There may indeed be a miniscule enthusiasm gap favoring Romney, but it's so small that I doubt it will make any noticeable difference. This will be a very close election, but based on the electoral math, I'm very confident that President Obama will win re-election.
In any event, this seems to be a pretty subjective, data-less case to be relying on the day before the election. We will certainly see though very, very soon.
Last edited by IMPress Polly; 11-05-2012 at 02:43 PM.
The reason that certain economic indicators look like they are improving, albeit at an anemic pace, is because of the various government debt spending programs. Even our economic leadership has admitted that we are past the point where debt spending brings more good than harm. The Federal Reserve is out of bullets. Once the market figures that out, there will be massive sell offs. I would predict that a 40% drop in the market would be the best case scenario. We will be lucky if our economy is not in full crash mode by the midterm elections. I doubt that Romney could stop it, although he may be able to inject enough confidence into the system to keep it going slightly longer.
Look at any of the economic graphs and subtract out government debt spending. That will give you a true but bleak picture of our situation.
Okay, I did my research on this this afternoon: It turns out there is no enthusiasm gap. A very recent (i.e. weekend) major national survey has found that 70% of registered Democrats and 70% of registered Republicans say they are either "very enthusiastic" or "extremely enthusiastic" about voting this year. Therefore one cannot count on an enthusiasm gap to make a measurable difference tomorrow.
(Sorry, I'm too low on time to provide any further responses tonight. Almost might as well just wait for the official results at this point anyway since the first of them will be coming out in barely another 24 hours.)
Last edited by IMPress Polly; 11-05-2012 at 06:17 PM.
Peter1469 (11-05-2012)