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Thread: My (Tentatively) Final U.S. Election Predictions

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    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Dickman View Post
    I disagree for a very simple reason. What you have today, and for the past several weeks, is team Obama delivering their message to their base constituency. Today for instance, Michele "Silver back" Obama is rallying in two different Black colleges. In the past couple days Obama is hitting Wisconsin. Wisconsin?
    Obama's been sending his Hollywood friends over to my UW school to plug for him regularly. We've now had Kal Penn, Olivia Munn, and apparently today Anne Hathaway.
    Quidquid Latine dictum sit altum videtur

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    Quote Originally Posted by kathaariancode View Post
    Obama's been sending his Hollywood friends over to my UW school to plug for him regularly. We've now had Kal Penn, Olivia Munn, and apparently today Anne Hathaway.
    Even if Anne and Olivia offered me a three-way, they couldn't get me to vote for that brain dead piece of filth.

    I'd certainly think long and hard on it. Long and hard...

    But in the end (so to speak) I'd pass.
    Count the F-bombs in my posts, and if you don't like them, kiss my lilly white ass.

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    Chris wrote:
    How do you calculate your certainty and confidence levels? Seat of the pants, or some formula?
    Both kind of. I take polling data and perceived trends and use them to discern what I feel is a trajectory in each case. So, in other words, my predictions are what they call educated guesses. But they're usually right.

    Do you think it all comes down to Ohio then?
    Not necessarily. We need to wait out the weekend to see more completely what impact the president's response to Hurricane Sandy will have upon the election process. As a hint at what my final revision will look like on Monday (and it's looking like I will need to make one, which will be posted here on this thread I guess), my projection in the OP was based largely on data that was up-to-date as of Wednesday. More recent data seems to suggest further movement in Obama's direction generally, at least in the swing states. In the latter case, Ohio wouldn't necessarily be vital to an Obama victory. It would still be vital to a Romney victory though. But like I said, I don't want to make a revision right now. We should really just wait out the weekend and see what happens by Monday.

    KC wrote:
    You've obviously put some thought into this. What makes you think Ohio will definitely fall in Obama's column?
    He's not winning by huge margins in Ohio, but he's been pretty consistently winning there overall throughout the whole campaign season. Polling from Friday suggests that Obama may even be pulling away in Ohio at this late stage (i.e. winning now by 5 or 6 percent points rather than by 2 or 3). Additionally, early vote trends in Ohio suggest that the president already has a significant advantage locked in there. What that means is that, among likely voters, Romney really needs to be winning in Ohio polls by like 5 or 7 points by Monday in order to stand a realistic chance of carrying the state because he has to make up the difference that Obama already has locked in on Tuesday. What are the odds of that happening at this point? There is nothing to indicate that Romney will win Ohio on Tuesday (though he must).

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    Thanks, no argument, your posts are thoughtful and I just wanted to hear more on your reasoning.

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    Trinnity wrote:
    NOrth Carolina (which has a LARGE Black population) is a lock for Romney.
    Yes, and he's hardly going to get any of their votes. Romney's big advantage in North Carolina (and, while secure, it's not THAT big) is among white people, who form a considerable majority of the state's population.

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    A little off topic but a neat interactive chart of 512 Paths to the White House.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Dickman View Post
    I disagree for a very simple reason. What you have today, and for the past several weeks, is team Obama delivering their message to their base constituency. Today for instance, Michele "Silver back" Obama is rallying in two different Black colleges. In the past couple days Obama is hitting Wisconsin. Wisconsin?

    Romney is playing to moderates, and Obama is playing to class warfare piglets. That tells you all you need to know regarding the nominees' war camps and their internal polling.

    I believe that when the dust settles the fight will not even be close. Polly, the one thing not one single pollster is seriously measuring is voter enthusiasm. The disgust WE have for Obama and what he has done, and what he will further do if re-elected, is incalculable. Turnout is going to be massive against Obama. Massive.
    The OP is clearly based on two week or more old thinking. And you are right. The message from Obama is 'get out the vote" to the point it is almost pleading if not downright begging. I have said from the beginning his support is soft and it is clear their polling numbers are showing that while they support him, a hang nail or a snow storm can keep them home.'

    Romney meanwhile, is expanding his campaign, bringing heavy guns to bear on Wisconsin and Pennsylvania with ads aimed at "undecided". Now, since the polled "undecided" is so tiny, clearly he is aiming his campaign on the "soft" Democrat support. That tells me their internal polling shows they have momentum in Ohio and probably have Florida by a nose, and they are sure that their support is going to show up.

    It will NOT be the sweep the OP predicts, but a lot closer and, I would say the Democrats are very frightened about both the House and Senate.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Chris View Post
    A little off topic but a neat interactive chart of 512 Paths to the White House.
    That's pretty cool.
    Quidquid Latine dictum sit altum videtur

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    Quote Originally Posted by IMPress Polly View Post
    Over the course of the last couple months or so, I've made two predictions concerning the outcome of the election on November 6th:

    First prediction (mid-September)

    Second prediction (end of September)

    Those were based on evidence from those respective points in the campaign. I wasn't yet factoring in things like Romney's impressive first debate performance and obviously not the impact of Hurricane Sandy upon this whole process (much of which still remains to be seen). However, at this late stage of the race, I feel confident enough to offer what I will tentatively call a final prediction. I may do some minor revisions on Monday based on how the weekend goes, but I'm confident enough now to forecast the basic outcome and the vast majority of outcomes overall. This time I will call every state, though, as I just mentioned, I may ultimately change one or two on Monday...we'll see.

    (Note: I've been doing these predictions regularly since the 2006 election cycle. Thus far I have ultimately been correct in more than 98% of said predictions. It's a certain boasting point that I have.)

    PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:

    Definite Obama states:

    1. Maine
    2. Rhode Island
    3. Vermont
    4. Massachusetts
    5. Connecticut
    6. New York
    7. New Jersey
    8. Delaware
    9. Pennsylvania
    10. Maryland
    11. Ohio
    12. Michigan
    13. Illinois
    14. Minnesota
    15. New Mexico
    16. Nevada
    17. Washington
    18. Oregon
    19. California
    20. Hawaii

    Likely Obama states:

    21. New Hampshire
    22. Wisconsin
    23. Iowa

    Definite Romney states:

    1. Virginia
    2. North Carolina
    3. South Carolina
    4. Florida
    5. West Virgina
    6. Kentucky
    7. Tennessee
    8. Georgia
    9. Indiana
    10. Alabama
    11. Mississippi
    12. Missouri
    13. Arkansas
    14. Louisiana
    15. North Dakota
    16. South Dakota
    17. Nebraska
    18. Kansas
    19. Oklahoma
    20. Texas
    21. Montana
    22. Wyoming
    23. Utah
    24. Arizona
    25. Idaho
    26. Alaska

    Likely Romney states:

    27. Colorado


    According to my forecast above, I predict the following outcome in electoral votes:

    Obama: 281 <-- Winner. (I'm back up to 85% certain on this.)
    Romney: 257


    THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

    Current Situation:

    Republicans: 240
    Democrats: 190
    Vacant Seats: 5

    My Prediction:
    Democrats experience a net gain of 5 seats.

    FINAL BALANCE:

    237 Republicans <-- Winners. (I'm 100% confident in this basic outcome.)
    198 Democrats.

    Republicans will retain control of the House, but with a slightly diminished majority. Basically the status quo will continue.


    THE SENATE:

    Current Scenario:

    51 Democrats
    47 Republicans
    2 Independents who caucus with Democrats

    33 seats are up for election. Of those 33 seats, 21 are held by Democrats, 10 by Republicans, and 2 by independents who caucus with Democrats. Republicans thus have a mathematical advantage.

    EFFECTIVELY: 53 Democrats, 47 Republicans

    My Prediction:

    Stays in the Democratic Camp:

    1. Rhode Island
    2. Vermont
    3. Connecticut
    4. New York
    5. New Jersey
    6. Delaware
    7. Pennsylvania
    8. Maryland
    9. Virginia
    10. Florida
    11. West Virginia
    12. Ohio
    13. Michigan
    14. Wisconsin
    15. Minnesota
    16. Missouri
    17. New Mexico
    18. Washington
    19. California
    20. Hawaii

    Switches from Republican to Democratic Camp:

    21. Massachusetts
    22. Maine
    23. Indiana

    Stays Republican:

    1. Tennessee
    2. Mississippi
    3. Texas
    4. Wyoming
    5. Utah
    6. Arizona
    7. Nevada

    Switches from Democratic to Republican:

    8. North Dakota
    9. Nebraska
    10. Montana

    Prediction of the End Result:



    Democrats: 51 <-- Winners. (I am 100% confident in that basic outcome.)
    Republicans: 47
    Independents: 2 (both Democratic-leaning)

    EFFECTIVELY: 53 Democrats, 47 Republicans, i.e. the status quo exactly in terms of totals. Nothing will essentially change, in other words.



    STATE GOVERNORSHIPS

    Current balance of state governorships:

    29 Republicans
    20 Democrats

    11 states will have gubernatorial elections concurrent with the November 6th general elections this year, out of which 8 seats are presently held by Democrats and 3 by Republicans, giving Republicans a huge mathematical advantage.

    My Prediction:

    Stays Democratic

    1. Vermont
    2. Delaware
    3. West Virginia
    4. Missouri
    5. Washington

    Stays Republican

    1. Indiana
    2. North Dakota
    3. Utah

    Switches From Democratic Camp to Republican Camp:

    Likely:

    1. North Carolina
    2. Montana

    Possibly:

    3. New Hampshire

    In other words, Republicans will probably pick up either 2 or 3 governorships on balance.

    FINAL BALANCE PREDICTION:

    32 or 33 Republican governors <-- Winners. (I'm 100% confident that this will be the basic outcome.)

    17 or 18 Democratic governors


    SUMMARY:

    Whereas the last three election cycles were anti-incumbent cycles, this one, by contrast, is essentially a status quo cycle, indicating that people are at least basically contented...at least when they compare the status quo to the alternatives that they've been presented with. That is why, for example, Republican Governor John Kaisich is popular in Ohio even while Democratic President Barack Obama Obama is pretty much certain to carry the state. That is why, likewise, voters in Wisconsin opted to keep Walker earlier this year and appear about to also vote to keep Obama in a few days. The consistency there is the status quo. i.e. This election will probably make only a minimal difference in the grand scheme of things. Prepare for at least two more years characterized by more of the same.

    Concerning the presidential race, I'm being generous in giving Romney Colorado considering that Obama has actually been winning in most recent Colorado polls by a slim margin. I'm giving it to Romney based on the perceived 'directionality factor' that may not actually be in play anymore. So that's one state I may switch to the Obama camp on Monday, depending on how the weekend goes.

    Concerning the Senate, my vote on North Dakota is somewhat iffy, though I suspect it will remain Republican. The competitors are running dead even in the polls in North Dakota, but, culturally speaking, in North Dakota a tie now will probably wind up going for the incumbent Republican. I'll monitor this over the weekend. There is a small chance I may change my prediction on that particular race as well.
    Polly, how do you take into consideration the concept of momentum and the likelihood of turning out to vote.

    As I see it Obama supporters are much less enthusiastic than last time, and the GOP is much more so than last time.

    I think that Romney will comfortably win.

    If we had a real media in the US it would be a historic landslide.

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    I do believe that the Rs have a good chance to get to 50 in the Senate, and when Romney/Ryan wins, that will be good.

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