Life is too short to refrain from eating jam out of the jar... life is too short to make toast, or use spoons or napkins. - John Darnielle
Count the F-bombs in my posts, and if you don't like them, kiss my lilly white ass.
Both kind of. I take polling data and perceived trends and use them to discern what I feel is a trajectory in each case. So, in other words, my predictions are what they call educated guesses. But they're usually right.Chris wrote:
How do you calculate your certainty and confidence levels? Seat of the pants, or some formula?
Not necessarily. We need to wait out the weekend to see more completely what impact the president's response to Hurricane Sandy will have upon the election process. As a hint at what my final revision will look like on Monday (and it's looking like I will need to make one, which will be posted here on this thread I guess), my projection in the OP was based largely on data that was up-to-date as of Wednesday. More recent data seems to suggest further movement in Obama's direction generally, at least in the swing states. In the latter case, Ohio wouldn't necessarily be vital to an Obama victory. It would still be vital to a Romney victory though. But like I said, I don't want to make a revision right now. We should really just wait out the weekend and see what happens by Monday.Do you think it all comes down to Ohio then?
He's not winning by huge margins in Ohio, but he's been pretty consistently winning there overall throughout the whole campaign season. Polling from Friday suggests that Obama may even be pulling away in Ohio at this late stage (i.e. winning now by 5 or 6 percent points rather than by 2 or 3). Additionally, early vote trends in Ohio suggest that the president already has a significant advantage locked in there. What that means is that, among likely voters, Romney really needs to be winning in Ohio polls by like 5 or 7 points by Monday in order to stand a realistic chance of carrying the state because he has to make up the difference that Obama already has locked in on Tuesday. What are the odds of that happening at this point? There is nothing to indicate that Romney will win Ohio on Tuesday (though he must).KC wrote:
You've obviously put some thought into this. What makes you think Ohio will definitely fall in Obama's column?
Thanks, no argument, your posts are thoughtful and I just wanted to hear more on your reasoning.
Yes, and he's hardly going to get any of their votes. Romney's big advantage in North Carolina (and, while secure, it's not THAT big) is among white people, who form a considerable majority of the state's population.Trinnity wrote:
NOrth Carolina (which has a LARGE Black population) is a lock for Romney.
Romney meanwhile, is expanding his campaign, bringing heavy guns to bear on Wisconsin and Pennsylvania with ads aimed at "undecided". Now, since the polled "undecided" is so tiny, clearly he is aiming his campaign on the "soft" Democrat support. That tells me their internal polling shows they have momentum in Ohio and probably have Florida by a nose, and they are sure that their support is going to show up.
It will NOT be the sweep the OP predicts, but a lot closer and, I would say the Democrats are very frightened about both the House and Senate.
Larry Dickman (11-03-2012)
As I see it Obama supporters are much less enthusiastic than last time, and the GOP is much more so than last time.
I think that Romney will comfortably win.
If we had a real media in the US it would be a historic landslide.
I do believe that the Rs have a good chance to get to 50 in the Senate, and when Romney/Ryan wins, that will be good.