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Thread: My (Tentatively) Final U.S. Election Predictions

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    Quote Originally Posted by Peter1469 View Post
    Polly, how do you take into consideration the concept of momentum and the likelihood of turning out to vote.

    As I see it Obama supporters are much less enthusiastic than last time, and the GOP is much more so than last time.

    I think that Romney will comfortably win.

    If we had a real media in the US it would be a historic landslide.
    To quantify my ideas of momentum and voter turn out, I am predicting Obama 233 and Romney 305.

    I wasn't able to attach my electoral map.... Bummer.

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    ABSOLUTE FINAL 2012 U.S. ELECTION PREDICTION:

    Okay, I did indeed have to make some minor revisions to my previous prediction on Friday. The revisions are as follows:

    -For the presidential election, I have shifted three states within the Romney category: I have moved Colorado into "certain" territory for Romney and I have moved Florida and Virginia out of "certain" territory and into "likely" for Romney, to be as safe as I can. I have also moved Wisconsin and Iowa into secure Obama territory. I feel least confident in my predictions for Virginia, Florida, and New Hampshire. I could be wrong about any or all of those, but my instinct, based on a combination of current polling data and seeming early voting patterns is believe that the former two will probably wind up going for Romney, while the latter will go for Obama. But I am almost absolutely certain (95% confident) that President Obama will win re-election tomorrow.

    -Concerning my predictions for the House of Representatives, I have slightly decreased my prediction on the number of seats Democrats will gain from 5 to 3. No big deal really.

    -Concerning the state governorships, I have now made a commitment to the number that I forecast Republicans will gain: It will be 2, not 3. The difference lies in that I've moved New Hampshire into the Democratic column for my prediction because I suspect it's most likely to go that way, though I could be wrong.

    As for the Senate, I see no reason to make any changes to my forecast from the OP. I'm still predicting that there will be no change whatsoever in terms of the Senate's overall partisan balance.

    Okay, that said, here is the detailed final breakdown I'm predicting:


    PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:

    Definite Obama states:

    1. Maine
    2. Rhode Island
    3. Vermont
    4. Massachusetts
    5. Connecticut
    6. New York
    7. New Jersey
    8. Delaware
    9. Pennsylvania
    10. Maryland
    11. Ohio
    12. Michigan
    13. Wisconsin
    14. Illinois
    15. Minnesota
    16. Iowa
    17. New Mexico
    18. Nevada
    19. Washington
    20. Oregon
    21. California
    22. Hawaii

    Likely Obama states:

    23. New Hampshire

    Definite Romney states:

    1. North Carolina
    2. South Carolina
    3. West Virgina
    4. Kentucky
    5. Tennessee
    6. Georgia
    7. Indiana
    8. Alabama
    9. Mississippi
    10. Missouri
    11. Arkansas
    12. Louisiana
    13. North Dakota
    14. South Dakota
    15. Nebraska
    16. Kansas
    17. Oklahoma
    18. Texas
    19. Colorado
    20. Montana
    21. Wyoming
    22. Utah
    23. Arizona
    24. Idaho
    25. Alaska

    Likely Romney states:

    26. Virginia
    27. Florida


    According to my forecast above, I predict the following outcome in electoral votes:

    Obama: 281 <-- Winner. (I'm 95% certain that President Obama will win re-election tomorrow.)
    Romney: 257


    THE SENATE:

    Current Scenario:

    51 Democrats
    47 Republicans
    2 Independents who caucus with Democrats

    33 seats are up for election. Of those 33 seats, 21 are held by Democrats, 10 by Republicans, and 2 by independents who caucus with Democrats. Republicans thus have a mathematical advantage.

    EFFECTIVELY: 53 Democrats, 47 Republicans

    My Prediction:

    Stays in the Democratic Camp:

    1. Rhode Island
    2. Vermont
    3. Connecticut
    4. New York
    5. New Jersey
    6. Delaware
    7. Pennsylvania
    8. Maryland
    9. Virginia
    10. Florida
    11. West Virginia
    12. Ohio
    13. Michigan
    14. Wisconsin
    15. Minnesota
    16. Missouri
    17. New Mexico
    18. Washington
    19. California
    20. Hawaii

    Switches from Republican to Democratic Camp:

    21. Massachusetts
    22. Maine
    23. Indiana

    Stays Republican:

    1. Tennessee
    2. Mississippi
    3. Texas
    4. Wyoming
    5. Utah
    6. Arizona
    7. Nevada

    Switches from Democratic to Republican:

    8. North Dakota
    9. Nebraska
    10. Montana

    Prediction of the End Result:



    Democrats: 51 <-- Winners. (I am 100% confident that the Democrats will retain control of the Senate.)
    Republicans: 47
    Independents: 2 (both Democratic-leaning)

    EFFECTIVELY: 53 Democrats, 47 Republicans, i.e. the status quo exactly in terms of totals. Nothing will essentially change, in other words.


    THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

    Current Situation:

    Republicans: 240
    Democrats: 190
    Vacant Seats: 5

    My Prediction:
    Democrats experience a net gain of 3 seats.

    FINAL BALANCE:

    239 Republicans <-- Winners. (I'm 100% confident that Republicans will retain control of the House.)
    196 Democrats.

    Republicans will retain control of the House, but with a slightly diminished majority. Basically the status quo will continue.


    STATE GOVERNORSHIPS


    Current balance of state governorships:

    29 Republicans
    20 Democrats

    11 states will have gubernatorial elections concurrent with the November 6th general elections this year, out of which 8 seats are presently held by Democrats and 3 by Republicans, giving Republicans a huge mathematical advantage.

    My Prediction:

    Stays Democratic

    1. New Hampshire
    2. Vermont
    3. Delaware
    4. West Virginia
    5. Missouri
    6. Washington

    Stays Republican

    1. Indiana
    2. North Dakota
    3. Utah

    Switches From Democratic Camp to Republican Camp:

    1. North Carolina
    2. Montana

    In other words, Republicans will probably pick up 2 governorships on balance.

    FINAL BALANCE PREDICTION:

    32 Republican governors <-- Winners. (I'm 100% confident that Republicans will increase their number of governorships.)

    18 Democratic governors


    Notes: You can print this forecast out if you want and check mark off the ones I got right tomorrow morning. I may have gotten a few of the details wrong, but I would put any amount of money on the notion that President Obama will win re-election, that the Senate will remain in the hands of the Democrats, that the House will remain in the hands of the Republicans, and that Republicans will gain a minimal number of state governorships (minimal considering their huge mathematical advantage in that category this year). This is a status quo election through and through. Bet money on it if you want. It's not gambling because you won't lose.
    Last edited by IMPress Polly; 11-05-2012 at 06:51 AM.

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    Yea ... Mitt looks like he's ready to go home an work on that elevator.

    “Conservatism is the fear that somewhere, somehow, someone you think is your inferior is being treated as your equal"

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    Correcting a math error I made on the governorships. My forecast SHOULD have read...

    FINAL BALANCE PREDICTION:

    31 Republican governors <-- Winners. (I'm 100% confident that Republicans will increase their number of governorships.)

    19 Democratic governors <-- This actually includes one independent who will align with Democrats.

    The Republicans presently have 29 state governorships. If they win two more, as I've predicted, they'll wind up with 31, not 32.

    ALSO:

    I said that "You can print this forecast out if you want and check mark off the ones I got right tomorrow morning." I don't know what I was thinking there! Election day is tomorrow, not today obviously, so you might want to check mark them off on Wednesday morning, not tomorrow morning. My bad!

    (I would've just edited the other post rather than making a new one, but it won't let me edit it anymore.)
    Last edited by IMPress Polly; 11-05-2012 at 10:39 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Dickman View Post
    Today for instance, Michele "Silver back" Obama is rallying in two different Black colleges.
    <You have always been a truly classy poster here.>

    The disgust WE have for Obama and what he has done, and what he will further do if re-elected, is incalculable.
    The disgust WE YOU have for Obama and what he has done...
    Please note: verbage enclosed by < > indicates sarcasm

    "There's class war alright. But it's my class that's making the war. And we're winning it." - Warren Buffet

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fearandloathing View Post
    The OP is clearly based on two week or more old thinking. And you are right. The message from Obama is 'get out the vote" to the point it is almost pleading if not downright begging. I have said from the beginning his support is soft and it is clear their polling numbers are showing that while they support him, a hang nail or a snow storm can keep them home.'

    Romney meanwhile, is expanding his campaign, bringing heavy guns to bear on Wisconsin and Pennsylvania with ads aimed at "undecided". Now, since the polled "undecided" is so tiny, clearly he is aiming his campaign on the "soft" Democrat support. That tells me their internal polling shows they have momentum in Ohio and probably have Florida by a nose, and they are sure that their support is going to show up.

    It will NOT be the sweep the OP predicts, but a lot closer and, I would say the Democrats are very frightened about both the House and Senate.
    If Mitt is bringing his big guns to PA, he's wasting a lot of transportation costs (not that he cares...). PA is not really in play here. The middle of the state might go to Romney, but that's in no way going to give him the state.

    If Obama does win, which i think he will, he will just have to endure another 4 years of repub obstructionism. That's all it comes down to, and all at the cost of America's future.
    Please note: verbage enclosed by < > indicates sarcasm

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    bladimz wrote:
    If Obama does win, which i think he will, he will just have to endure another 4 years of repub obstructionism.
    Actually, only two more years of it are for certain. There will be Congressional elections in 2014 after all. With the slowly recovering economy and with the expansion of Medicaid (the main factor that will drastically reduce the number of uninsured Americans) that will be coming into play beginning in January, I have a feeling the president, and by down-ballot effect his party, will be qualitatively more popular by then. They are obviously already more popular than in 2010.

    Peter wrote:
    Polly, how do you take into consideration the concept of momentum and the likelihood of turning out to vote.

    As I see it Obama supporters are much less enthusiastic than last time, and the GOP is much more so than last time.

    I think that Romney will comfortably win.

    If we had a real media in the US it would be a historic landslide.
    The polls reveal where the momentum lies and it's been with President Obama since the hurricane hit, given his effective and popular response.

    As to degrees of enthusiasm, it very much seems to me that both sides are solidly convinced that their presidential candidate is going to win. There may indeed be a miniscule enthusiasm gap favoring Romney, but it's so small that I doubt it will make any noticeable difference. This will be a very close election, but based on the electoral math, I'm very confident that President Obama will win re-election.

    In any event, this seems to be a pretty subjective, data-less case to be relying on the day before the election. We will certainly see though very, very soon.
    Last edited by IMPress Polly; 11-05-2012 at 01:43 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by IMPress Polly View Post
    Actually, only two more years of it are for certain. There will be Congressional elections in 2014 after all. With the slowly recovering economy and with the expansion of Medicaid (the main factor that will drastically reduce the number of uninsured Americans) that will be coming into play beginning in January, I have a feeling the president, and by down-ballot effect his party, will be qualitatively more popular by then. They are obviously already more popular than in 2010.



    The polls reveal where the momentum lies and it's been with President Obama since the hurricane hit, given his effective and popular response.

    As to degrees of enthusiasm, it very much seems to me that both sides are solidly convinced that their presidential candidate is going to win. There may indeed be a miniscule enthusiasm gap favoring Romney, but it's so small that I doubt it will make any noticeable difference. This will be a very close election, but based on the electoral math, I'm very confident that President Obama will win re-election.

    In any event, this seems to be a pretty subjective, data-less case to be relying on the day before the election. We will certainly see though very, very soon.
    The reason that certain economic indicators look like they are improving, albeit at an anemic pace, is because of the various government debt spending programs. Even our economic leadership has admitted that we are past the point where debt spending brings more good than harm. The Federal Reserve is out of bullets. Once the market figures that out, there will be massive sell offs. I would predict that a 40% drop in the market would be the best case scenario. We will be lucky if our economy is not in full crash mode by the midterm elections. I doubt that Romney could stop it, although he may be able to inject enough confidence into the system to keep it going slightly longer.

    Look at any of the economic graphs and subtract out government debt spending. That will give you a true but bleak picture of our situation.

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    Quote Originally Posted by IMPress Polly View Post
    Actually, only two more years of it are for certain. There will be Congressional elections in 2014 after all. With the slowly recovering economy and with the expansion of Medicaid (the main factor that will drastically reduce the number of uninsured Americans) that will be coming into play beginning in January, I have a feeling the president, and by down-ballot effect his party, will be qualitatively more popular by then. They are obviously already more popular than in 2010.



    The polls reveal where the momentum lies and it's been with President Obama since the hurricane hit, given his effective and popular response.

    As to degrees of enthusiasm, it very much seems to me that both sides are solidly convinced that their presidential candidate is going to win. There may indeed be a miniscule enthusiasm gap favoring Romney, but it's so small that I doubt it will make any noticeable difference. This will be a very close election, but based on the electoral math, I'm very confident that President Obama will win re-election.

    In any event, this seems to be a pretty subjective, data-less case to be relying on the day before the election. We will certainly see though very, very soon.
    I have been out of the country since the storm- just got back last night. So I haven't seen any recent polls.

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    Okay, I did my research on this this afternoon: It turns out there is no enthusiasm gap. A very recent (i.e. weekend) major national survey has found that 70% of registered Democrats and 70% of registered Republicans say they are either "very enthusiastic" or "extremely enthusiastic" about voting this year. Therefore one cannot count on an enthusiasm gap to make a measurable difference tomorrow.

    (Sorry, I'm too low on time to provide any further responses tonight. Almost might as well just wait for the official results at this point anyway since the first of them will be coming out in barely another 24 hours.)
    Last edited by IMPress Polly; 11-05-2012 at 05:17 PM.

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